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  1. #261
    Registered User Water Rat's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SkeeterPee View Post
    All of my posts / discussion has been about the restarting a self supported hike after the governors have reopened business and the trail closures have been removed by the federal/state parks. I am thinking this may happen by June. So you are responding to me, but not discussing the scenario i proposed if you are talking about today.
    The first paragraph of my response is in answer to this quote. The rest is in response to this thread.

    I can't speak for the rest of the trail, but Maine is not likely to open for hiking...for business...before June. We are in no way near our projected "peak" date. The virus is here. There have only been 12,168 reported tests (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/) run for the entire state of Maine. People are sick, but they can't get tested... Tourists think the low numbers of COVID-19 mean the virus isn't here. That is simply not true.

    Many large, local, businesses are quietly telling their employees to not plan on being back to work until AT LEAST June, and that date is likely to be pushed back...again. The reason is simple: people are not staying home. They are not listening, are not quarantining as soon as they get to Maine. The tourists/summer people are arriving every single day. This will create waves, new "peaks" of the virus entering Maine. That will further delay the openings of parks, businesses, etc.

    I absolutely understand the frustration of not being out on the trail. However, I do also feel it would be unethical for me to hike to another community, then another community...possibly spreading the virus along the way.

    The reasoning (for me) is that in the rural communities people do not have the choice to go to the store, or their local post office. These are necessities, how they survive. They are not aimlessly shopping, they are not staying out any longer than is necessary. There are no delivery services for food...many don't have a mailbox in front of their house. Going to town is often done as little as possible these days, but the residents have to go sometime.

    Hikers...people who are on vacation...do have a choice. They do not HAVE to enter the small, rural towns. They are choosing to fulfill their dreams, at the possible expense of others.

    I do not live in fear. I live in reality. The fact is: Anyone can get sick from this virus. Maine does not have many hospital options for those who become very sick from this virus. You pretty much have Bangor and Portland. Yes, there are a couple of other options, but these are the major options...and very likely the places a hiker would be sent. There are limited beds. There are a limited number of ventilators. If a doctor has to choose between a young hiker, and an elderly resident, who would they choose? Would it be ethical for a person who is choosing to be on vacation to take away a hospital bed from someone who lives in that state, someone who did not venture out of their community? No need to respond - it is a question for people to ask themselves. That is why some decisions have been made with regards to the trail. It is more about looking at the big picture.

    It sucks to have to forgo plans. I can't think of anyone who hasn't given up something because of this virus. Personally, I think that if hiking is the only thing a person has to give up for a short time...they are very lucky. There are many who have lost their lives to something that has been called a "simple" virus and nothing to worry about.

  2. #262

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    Quote Originally Posted by Water Rat View Post
    The first paragraph of my response is in answer to this quote. The rest is in response to this thread.

    I can't speak for the rest of the trail, but Maine is not likely to open for hiking...for business...before June. We are in no way near our projected "peak" date. The virus is here. There have only been 12,168 reported tests (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/) run for the entire state of Maine. People are sick, but they can't get tested... Tourists think the low numbers of COVID-19 mean the virus isn't here. That is simply not true.

    Many large, local, businesses are quietly telling their employees to not plan on being back to work until AT LEAST June, and that date is likely to be pushed back...again. The reason is simple: people are not staying home. They are not listening, are not quarantining as soon as they get to Maine. The tourists/summer people are arriving every single day. This will create waves, new "peaks" of the virus entering Maine. That will further delay the openings of parks, businesses, etc.

    I absolutely understand the frustration of not being out on the trail. However, I do also feel it would be unethical for me to hike to another community, then another community...possibly spreading the virus along the way.

    The reasoning (for me) is that in the rural communities people do not have the choice to go to the store, or their local post office. These are necessities, how they survive. They are not aimlessly shopping, they are not staying out any longer than is necessary. There are no delivery services for food...many don't have a mailbox in front of their house. Going to town is often done as little as possible these days, but the residents have to go sometime.

    Hikers...people who are on vacation...do have a choice. They do not HAVE to enter the small, rural towns. They are choosing to fulfill their dreams, at the possible expense of others.

    I do not live in fear. I live in reality. The fact is: Anyone can get sick from this virus. Maine does not have many hospital options for those who become very sick from this virus. You pretty much have Bangor and Portland. Yes, there are a couple of other options, but these are the major options...and very likely the places a hiker would be sent. There are limited beds. There are a limited number of ventilators. If a doctor has to choose between a young hiker, and an elderly resident, who would they choose? Would it be ethical for a person who is choosing to be on vacation to take away a hospital bed from someone who lives in that state, someone who did not venture out of their community? No need to respond - it is a question for people to ask themselves. That is why some decisions have been made with regards to the trail. It is more about looking at the big picture.

    It sucks to have to forgo plans. I can't think of anyone who hasn't given up something because of this virus. Personally, I think that if hiking is the only thing a person has to give up for a short time...they are very lucky. There are many who have lost their lives to something that has been called a "simple" virus and nothing to worry about.
    As always, you’re the voice of reason. I can’t agree more.

  3. #263
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    Your predictions may be right, but current models show Maine bottoming out by May 5 for the current peak. I hope you realize that the goal of Stay at home was to get the virus down to a level it can be managed by the healthcare system. People will continue to get the virus and a small number of those will die. It is not going to be eliminated for a long time if ever. It will come to every small town whether there are hikers or not. Hikers are a small amount of the visitors. Consider all the people who come to town everyday who have also visited other towns. And you have delivery truck drivers, Amazon, UPS, USPS, food Suppliers, etc. Many visits everyday. The virus has made it to 85% of the counties in the US. No place is going to escape this Hopefully those most at risk can avoid it until there is a vaccine, but do not expect that in 18 months. That is very optimistic.

  4. #264
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    The models are merely predictions, based on information. Without thorough testing, they do not have all the information. I live in Maine and can tell you the testing does not reflect the true number of cases. May 5th will not be Maine's peak for this round of the virus.

    Having worked in healthcare for many years I do understand the goal of stay at home. I have also been adhering to the request.

    Yes, towns will get the virus with/without hikers. Does that mean hikers/vacationers should exacerbate the problem? Just because necessary deliveries (mail, food, things of that ilk) are made to a town...and those exposures happen, does that mean it is OK for vacationers to also show up just because they want to go to that area? That is the choice to do what one pleases. That is not a necessity.

    We are a long way from a vaccine. The purpose to stay at home/stay local is get people to stop moving outside their communities in an effort to slow the spread. It is a means to help stop hospitals/healthcare from being overrun. This buys time until we can find a vaccine. Hiking the AT is not a necessity right now. There are other ways for people to get their nature fix without needlessly exposing others to this virus/being exposed by others. There are other ways for getting a nature fix without possibly exposing other communities to the virus.

    The thread is about whether or not it is ethical to thru-hike during this pandemic. For many reasons, I do not think it is ethical. That is my opinion.

    Others will make their own decisions based on their values. I value the trail, my community, the people and places I love to visit. Right now, showing I care about these things means staying away. I cannot control the actions of others, but I can do my part to protect the things I care about. Doesn't mean I am living in fear. It also doesn't mean I will stay at home for years. We really haven't been asked to stay at home all that long. For many, it has only been about a month (if one does not go to an essential job). That is not a very long time when you think of the average lifespan. Rushing to open everything will only encourage those with no attention span to mob the places they love. We have already seen that. There are no easy answers, but people can do their part to help slow the spread.

  5. #265
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    Quote Originally Posted by SkeeterPee View Post
    Your predictions may be right, but current models show Maine bottoming out by May 5 for the current peak. I hope you realize that the goal of Stay at home was to get the virus down to a level it can be managed by the healthcare system. People will continue to get the virus and a small number of those will die. It is not going to be eliminated for a long time if ever. It will come to every small town whether there are hikers or not. Hikers are a small amount of the visitors. Consider all the people who come to town everyday who have also visited other towns. And you have delivery truck drivers, Amazon, UPS, USPS, food Suppliers, etc. Many visits everyday. The virus has made it to 85% of the counties in the US. No place is going to escape this Hopefully those most at risk can avoid it until there is a vaccine, but do not expect that in 18 months. That is very optimistic.
    i would love to see where you are getting this information from, as of a week ago there was no certainty in any model -

    https://bangordailynews.com/2020/04/...-happens-next/

    since that article the number of known cases has nearly doubled, as have the deaths.

    https://bangordailynews.com/covid-19-maine/

    and lastly limiting the spread is also about limiting the number of humans the virus passes through. Any virus new to a host is almost never optimized for that host, over time as it goes from one host to another and another it can increase its ability to more efficiently infect that host. By this i mean that less and less of a dose can become more and more effective.

    We are already seeing some hints that this virus can be more dangerous based on how large the initial dose you get is (this was also seen in the very closely related sars virus). So be careful making assumptions that once some mythical peak is reached everything will be normal again, and be especially careful of assuming that only small numbers of the infected will die.

    there is absolutely no evidence that what we see now is what the final form of the virus will be. there is still a lot to learn about this new virus.

  6. #266
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    i would love to see where you are getting this information from, as of a week ago there was no certainty in any model -

    https://bangordailynews.com/2020/04/...-happens-next/

    My commnt...
    The covid19.healthdata.org site is the one the CDC finds most accurate. originally it estimated about 83000 deaths for the US with mitigation in place, but it also gave a confidence range of 40k-160K deaths. As more data comes in it is added in and a re-estimate is generated every couple days. Current estimate is 68,841 deaths for the US. You can also select by state.

    since that article the number of known cases has nearly doubled, as have the deaths


    https://bangordailynews.com/covid-19-maine/

    and lastly limiting the spread is also about limiting the number of humans the virus passes through. Any virus new to a host is almost never optimized for that host, over time as it goes from one host to another and another it can increase its ability to more efficiently infect that host. By this i mean that less and less of a dose can become more and more effective.

    We are already seeing some hints that this virus can be more dangerous based on how large the initial dose you get is (this was also seen in the very closely related sars virus). So be careful making assumptions that once some mythical peak is reached everything will be normal again, and be especially careful of assuming that only small numbers of the infected will die.

    This loading is common on many viruses.

    I don't things will be normal for several years, or possibly never the same again. Too many unknowns and some of the questions take years to understand. I don't hold a lot of hope for a vaccine in 18 months. We have spent 100's of millions on MERS vaccine since 2012 and do not have one yet. But so many are working on this one and Billions will be spent so that could make a difference.


    there is absolutely no evidence that what we see now is what the final form of the virus will be. there is still a lot to learn about this new virus.

    Agreed, but for now they say it is not changing much.

  7. #267
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    Quote Originally Posted by Water Rat View Post
    The first paragraph of my response is in answer to this quote. The rest is in response to this thread.

    I can't speak for the rest of the trail, but Maine is not likely to open for hiking...for business...before June. We are in no way near our projected "peak" date. The virus is here. There have only been 12,168 reported tests (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/) run for the entire state of Maine. People are sick, but they can't get tested... Tourists think the low numbers of COVID-19 mean the virus isn't here. That is simply not true.

    Many large, local, businesses are quietly telling their employees to not plan on being back to work until AT LEAST June, and that date is likely to be pushed back...again. The reason is simple: people are not staying home. They are not listening, are not quarantining as soon as they get to Maine. The tourists/summer people are arriving every single day. This will create waves, new "peaks" of the virus entering Maine. That will further delay the openings of parks, businesses, etc.

    I absolutely understand the frustration of not being out on the trail. However, I do also feel it would be unethical for me to hike to another community, then another community...possibly spreading the virus along the way.

    The reasoning (for me) is that in the rural communities people do not have the choice to go to the store, or their local post office. These are necessities, how they survive. They are not aimlessly shopping, they are not staying out any longer than is necessary. There are no delivery services for food...many don't have a mailbox in front of their house. Going to town is often done as little as possible these days, but the residents have to go sometime.

    Hikers...people who are on vacation...do have a choice. They do not HAVE to enter the small, rural towns. They are choosing to fulfill their dreams, at the possible expense of others.

    I do not live in fear. I live in reality. The fact is: Anyone can get sick from this virus. Maine does not have many hospital options for those who become very sick from this virus. You pretty much have Bangor and Portland. Yes, there are a couple of other options, but these are the major options...and very likely the places a hiker would be sent. There are limited beds. There are a limited number of ventilators. If a doctor has to choose between a young hiker, and an elderly resident, who would they choose? Would it be ethical for a person who is choosing to be on vacation to take away a hospital bed from someone who lives in that state, someone who did not venture out of their community? No need to respond - it is a question for people to ask themselves. That is why some decisions have been made with regards to the trail. It is more about looking at the big picture.

    It sucks to have to forgo plans. I can't think of anyone who hasn't given up something because of this virus. Personally, I think that if hiking is the only thing a person has to give up for a short time...they are very lucky. There are many who have lost their lives to something that has been called a "simple" virus and nothing to worry about.
    Thank you for this post!

  8. #268
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    Quote Originally Posted by Water Rat View Post
    The models are merely predictions, based on information. Without thorough testing, they do not have all the information. I live in Maine and can tell you the testing does not reflect the true number of cases. May 5th will not be Maine's peak for this round of the virus.

    Having worked in healthcare for many years I do understand the goal of stay at home. I have also been adhering to the request.

    Yes, towns will get the virus with/without hikers. Does that mean hikers/vacationers should exacerbate the problem? Just because necessary deliveries (mail, food, things of that ilk) are made to a town...and those exposures happen, does that mean it is OK for vacationers to also show up just because they want to go to that area? That is the choice to do what one pleases. That is not a necessity.

    We are a long way from a vaccine. The purpose to stay at home/stay local is get people to stop moving outside their communities in an effort to slow the spread. It is a means to help stop hospitals/healthcare from being overrun. This buys time until we can find a vaccine. Hiking the AT is not a necessity right now. There are other ways for people to get their nature fix without needlessly exposing others to this virus/being exposed by others. There are other ways for getting a nature fix without possibly exposing other communities to the virus.

    The thread is about whether or not it is ethical to thru-hike during this pandemic. For many reasons, I do not think it is ethical. That is my opinion.

    Others will make their own decisions based on their values. I value the trail, my community, the people and places I love to visit. Right now, showing I care about these things means staying away. I cannot control the actions of others, but I can do my part to protect the things I care about. Doesn't mean I am living in fear. It also doesn't mean I will stay at home for years. We really haven't been asked to stay at home all that long. For many, it has only been about a month (if one does not go to an essential job). That is not a very long time when you think of the average lifespan. Rushing to open everything will only encourage those with no attention span to mob the places they love. We have already seen that. There are no easy answers, but people can do their part to help slow the spread.
    It's good to see you back on the forum lately, Water Rat. I was one that enjoyed and respected your thoughtful well expressed opinions and observations back a couple years when you were a regular contributor. I look forward to yours and Traveller's posts.
    humor is the gadfly on the corpse of tragedy

  9. #269
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    *Post moved from another thread.
    Quote Originally Posted by Lone Wolf View Post
    yup. i see at least 8-10 roaming the main street daily. they're staying overnight so it's hard to know exact numbers. too many
    There is growing evidence through contact tracing that casual contact like in grocery is not a likely way to get the virus. It is close prolonged contact between people that is riskier. We should all still social distance, but the risk of waking by a hiker is probably small.

    You have about 10 hikers per day. By comparison, for Damascus, how many people come into town each day from outside the city limits, including, mail, deliveries, truckers, workers, etc, plus add the number who leave each day for work, shopping etc. What is a rough number?

  10. #270

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    Quote Originally Posted by SkeeterPee View Post
    There is growing evidence through contact tracing that casual contact like in grocery is not a likely way to get the virus. It is close prolonged contact between people that is riskier. We should all still social distance, but the risk of waking by a hiker is probably small.

    You have about 10 hikers per day. By comparison, for Damascus, how many people come into town each day from outside the city limits, including, mail, deliveries, truckers, workers, etc, plus add the number who leave each day for work, shopping etc. What is a rough number?
    Water Rat addressed the 2nd point of yours. Hiking is recreating while a good portion of what you enumerating is essential. As to your first point, the virus has limited mobility. People move the virus. It's not just close prolonged contacted. The two million people affected in nearly every country in the world weren't all sleeping together, living in the same house, or at the same house party.

    This belongs in the this thread so I am moving it here.
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  11. #271
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    Quote Originally Posted by SkeeterPee View Post
    There is growing evidence through contact tracing that casual contact like in grocery is not a likely way to get the virus. It is close prolonged contact between people that is riskier. We should all still social distance, but the risk of waking by a hiker is probably small.


    can you cite this "growing evidence" and casual contact "not a likely way to get the virus" for grocery store workers?


    and i realize that grocery workers can be exposed to it outside a grocery store but here's that i found....

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/money...ys/2987754001/
    Last edited by TNhiker; 04-15-2020 at 15:05.

  12. #272
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alligator View Post
    Water Rat addressed the 2nd point of yours. Hiking is recreating while a good portion of what you enumerating is essential. As to your first point, the virus has limited mobility. People move the virus. It's not just close prolonged contacted. The two million people affected in nearly every country in the world weren't all sleeping together, living in the same house, or at the same house party.

    This belongs in the this thread so I am moving it here.
    Thanks for moving it. I was just hoping Lone Wolf could give us a comparison number for all the activity in/out of town.

    Close contact does not mean living in same household or sleeping together. If you and I talk over a table for 20 mins that is close contact. Backpacking does not need to be close contact.

    Hiking long distances is medicinal not recreational for many of the older thru hikers I met. Hiking allowed them to become healthier and eliminate chronic disease such as high blood pressure, high cholesterol, and improved diabetes control. None of that works the same doing local day hikes.

  13. #273

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    Quote Originally Posted by SkeeterPee View Post
    Thanks for moving it. I was just hoping Lone Wolf could give us a comparison number for all the activity in/out of town.

    Close contact does not mean living in same household or sleeping together. If you and I talk over a table for 20 mins that is close contact. Backpacking does not need to be close contact.

    Hiking long distances is medicinal not recreational for many of the older thru hikers I met. Hiking allowed them to become healthier and eliminate chronic disease such as high blood pressure, high cholesterol, and improved diabetes control. None of that works the same doing local day hikes.
    Damascus has a population of around 800 people. Be honest, you weren't just looking for those numbers you wanted to compare a significant amount of essential activity to a recreational activity.

    It's not just what your defining as close contact that transmits. You think if someone coughs in your face you won't get sick? Five minutes with an infected person?

    That last part about older hikers, malarkey. Hike the same amount locally as on a thru, you'd have almost the same benefits. Mentally different but exercise is exercise. If it is so special it can't be replicated than all those poor health conditions will come back. You can't thruhike 365 days a year. A select few. You can hike all year if you want. You could build a couple of older people up exercising and work them into high intensity like crossfit for instance and you could definitely improve their health considerably. Thruhiking is not the only answer to improving physical health. People need to make lifestyle changes towards increased physical fitness and healthier eating then maintain them and they can see increased overall health. It's not dependent on a thruhike.
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  14. #274
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    Quote Originally Posted by TNhiker View Post
    can you cite this "growing evidence" and casual contact "not a likely way to get the virus" for grocery store workers?


    and i realize that grocery workers can be exposed to it outside a grocery store but here's that i found....

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/money...ys/2987754001/
    Sorry I was not clear. it was an interview with people who do contact tracing who said they are not seeing transfers through casual contacts like walking by someone in a grocery. Not related to the actual workers. So I suspect in a couple months there will be far more of that contact information to learn from. I still plan to keep 6ft away from people in the meantime, but a brief passing may not be a major contributor to spread of the virus.

  15. #275

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    Merged from a different thread.
    Quote Originally Posted by WMR View Post
    In March 2020, the Appalachian Trail Conservancy (ATC)
    Quote Originally Posted by WMR View Post
    advised all visitors and volunteers to stay away from the Appalachian Trail. Increased visitor use made social distancing practically impossible and the potential to spread COVID-19 to other Trail visitors and vulnerable Trailside communities — and beyond — posed grave risks. Subsequent stay-at-home orders in most Trail states, numerous national park and national forest closures on the A.T., and hundreds of reported COVID-19 infections in counties along the Trail reinforced ATC’s guidance.

    We know this was a difficult decision for those seeking the benefits of the A.T. experience, including many who had planned section and thru-hikes this year, and we greatly appreciate your assistance in helping prevent the spread of this dangerous virus.

    Now over a month has passed since we made this request, and many have asked an important question: when will it be safe to return to the Trail?

    For now, our guidance is still in effect. The ATC urges everyone — visitors, volunteers and Trailside community residents alike — to stay off the A.T. to keep both the Trail and its broader community safe and healthy.

    However, as several states have begun lifting or are planning to lift stay-at-home orders, the ATC has convened a task force to develop guidance on how A.T. visitors can re-engage safely with the Trail. This task force is comprised of representatives from the ATC’s staff, federal and state agency partners, trail maintaining clubs, A.T. Communities, local leaders and medical experts and will incorporate perspectives from those groups.

    The task force will adopt several guiding principles as it develops a decision-making framework for staff, volunteers and Trail visitors:


    • The task force’s top priority will be the safety and health of ATC staff, volunteers, agency partners, Trail visitors and adjacent communities.
    • The task force will adopt an evidence-based approach, relying on the best science available.
    • The task force will account for the unique characteristics of the A.T. and develop guidance that is specific to the A.T. and the broader Trail community.
    • The task force will consider the policies of our federal and state partners as well as restrictions and closures implemented at the local, state and federal levels.


    The task force aims to deliver guidance that can be used broadly by the entire Trail community. Whether you are a volunteer who wants to complete Trail maintenance or a hiker who hopes to experience the beauty, inspiration and connection to nature found on the A.T., we want to make sure you have the information you need to stay safe and healthy.

    The ATC wants to ensure we can, in the future, access the A.T.’s myriad values safely and responsibly. For the time being, we ask for your continued patience as we determine the best possible way forward.

    Be well and safe,

    Sandra "Sandi" Marra
    President & CEO
    Appalachian Trail Conservancy

    What would you tell folks who insist on going out for a weekend overnight hike on the trail right now? Some people just don’t care about rules, or guidance, or other people for that.

  16. #276
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    I'd tell them to go hike and follow the guidelines from whatever state your in. ATC is bungling this one badly.
    - Trail name: Thumper

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    Quote Originally Posted by chknfngrs View Post
    What would you tell folks who insist on going out for a weekend overnight hike on the trail right now? Some people just don’t care about rules, or guidance, or other people for that.


    to write out a will just in case......

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    Quote Originally Posted by chknfngrs View Post
    What would you tell folks who insist on going out for a weekend overnight hike on the trail right now? Some people just don’t care about rules, or guidance, or other people for that.
    You tell them nothing, it isn't your business whether other adults hike or don't hike.

    Do you also drive slow in the left lane to help enforce the speed limit?

  19. #279
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    I've done some sections recently and have more planned, including this weekend.

    To say that I, or anyone else who chooses to hike, doesn't care about others is completely off base. Not everyone thinks alike. Nor do we have to. We don't all share the same views or the same level of risk tolerance. And none of you know how I'm going about my hikes or the things I have to worry about with regard to the virus.
    It is what it is.

  20. #280

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by chknfngrs View Post
    [FONT=Verdana]Merged from a different thread.



    What would you tell folks who insist on going out for a weekend overnight hike on the trail right now? Some people just don’t care about rules, or guidance, or other people for that.
    Apparently there are a lot of them. Just read a trailjournals (Rodof, the lone thru hiker) saying Maupin field was overflowing with people and dogs this weekend. There's just no keeping people home and telling them to stay home just makes them want to go out all the more. Ya roll the dice and take your chances...
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