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  1. #221
    Registered User GolfHiker's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Alligator View Post
    Direct link to the letter from the ATC and Trail Clubs to the Departments of Interior and Agriculture, National Park Service, and Forest Service.
    Alligator. Thanks for sharing this link. Iíve seen no follow up on this letter/request from the ATC, either on WB or from the ATC.
    Have I missed something? Can you please update. Thank you.
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  2. #222
    Crazy Larry #1's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by med2 View Post
    How are you putting others at risk when individuals take risk each and every day. We must choose our own level of comfort. If I chose to hike the trail or go to the store during the Wuhan virus scare, that is my choice. Those that are hiking take the INDIVIDUAL risk of hiking. Just because someone else gets a warm and fuzzy feeling telling others how they personally should live is ridiculous. Okay, let's play this nonsense out. "Today I saw a bear on the trail near Hot Springs!" "Don't go there!" "Call the ATC and ask them to support stoping hikers from that area until a bear expert can give us the all-clear"....or, we as individuals can make the choices for ourselves knowing there was a bear spotted on the trail.

    People hike the trail each and every day with some kind of common cold or flu virus not knowing initially they have it. Should we stop hikers from hiking because there MIGHT be a risk? Of course not. Same with the Wuhan virus. Let the individual hiker assume his or her own choice and if they feel comfortable with the risk.

    The ATC closing their offices at Amicalola Falls State Park is silly. They are doing nothing except making themselves feel warm and fuzzy.

  3. #223

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    Quote Originally Posted by Emerson Bigills View Post
    At this point in time, I don't think it is a very good idea to be out there. However, I suspect within 4-6 weeks things will start to ease up a bit ............

    Goes back to the question of how will you be able to tell when it is safe be out and about. People talk about herd immunity being able to stop the epidemic spread of coronavirus and that occurs when 50-60% of the population has immunity to the virus after having had the virus. I think that will be way longer than a month or two. Yesterday a total of some 530,000 people have tested positive. The population of folks over the age of 5 (school age and above) is about 300,000,000. Even taking into account that only a small number of folks have been tested and the possibility of 5-25% of folks who have the virus being asymptomatic, we are still a long, long way from 150,000,000 to 180,000,000 (50-60% of the population) being immune to the virus and achieving anything like herd immunity.
    If you don't stand for something, you will fall for anything.

  4. #224

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    If you can avoid catching the CV-19 over the next 2-3 years, you'll be really lucky. If history is any indication, that will be about how long it will take for this strain to run it's course and it will come in several waves. In 4-6 weeks it will be looking like it's easing up, people get lax about groups and distance and the cycle repeats. For the foreseeable future, you go out, roll the dice and take your chances.
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  5. #225

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    Quote Originally Posted by TexasBob View Post
    Goes back to the question of how will you be able to tell when it is safe be out and about. People talk about herd immunity being able to stop the epidemic spread of coronavirus and that occurs when 50-60% of the population has immunity to the virus after having had the virus. I think that will be way longer than a month or two. Yesterday a total of some 530,000 people have tested positive. The population of folks over the age of 5 (school age and above) is about 300,000,000. Even taking into account that only a small number of folks have been tested and the possibility of 5-25% of folks who have the virus being asymptomatic, we are still a long, long way from 150,000,000 to 180,000,000 (50-60% of the population) being immune to the virus and achieving anything like herd immunity.
    Agreed. We have tested less than 0.3% of the population, which some seem to feel is ok to make decisions on. However, ethically, without better testing data we really can't do a heck of a lot with any degree of certainty. Conversely, there are always profit minded people who encourage a short-cut of ethics to meet their own ends. For this reason, organizations like the ATC will take positions that many do not like, or perhaps do not understand, to relieve individuals of having to make difficult decisions that many may not agree with to provide continuity and reduce the arguments these decisions ignite when made individually. In my view, the ATC and its Chapters has done a good job doing what they can to help protect trail users and communities the trail goes through from unnecessary risk of exposure to an illness with no cure, no treatment, and no prevention outside of social distancing.

    All this will eventually pass, until then patience is the operative word.

  6. #226

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    Quote Originally Posted by Slo-go'en View Post
    If you can avoid catching the CV-19 over the next 2-3 years, you'll be really lucky. If history is any indication, that will be about how long it will take for this strain to run it's course and it will come in several waves. In 4-6 weeks it will be looking like it's easing up, people get lax about groups and distance and the cycle repeats. For the foreseeable future, you go out, roll the dice and take your chances.
    We have a little to go on. The Spanish flu infected around 25%. We can guess that just about everyone was exposed. On the Diamond Princess cruise ship we can assume everyone was exposed in the two weeks infected passengers circulated freely on the ship before it was quarantined and 19% became infected.

  7. #227

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    Quote Originally Posted by GolfHiker View Post
    Alligator. Thanks for sharing this link. I’ve seen no follow up on this letter/request from the ATC, either on WB or from the ATC.
    Have I missed something? Can you please update. Thank you.
    I haven't seen or heard anything where the officials have responded to the request.
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  8. #228
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    Quote Originally Posted by Traveler View Post
    Agreed. We have tested less than 0.3% of the population, which some seem to feel is ok to make decisions on. However, ethically, without better testing data we really can't do a heck of a lot with any degree of certainty. Conversely, there are always profit minded people who encourage a short-cut of ethics to meet their own ends. For this reason, organizations like the ATC will take positions that many do not like, or perhaps do not understand, to relieve individuals of having to make difficult decisions that many may not agree with to provide continuity and reduce the arguments these decisions ignite when made individually. In my view, the ATC and its Chapters has done a good job doing what they can to help protect trail users and communities the trail goes through from unnecessary risk of exposure to an illness with no cure, no treatment, and no prevention outside of social distancing.

    All this will eventually pass, until then patience is the operative word.
    No one can give a good answer why they think we need widespread testing. You could test every person and the next week some of them would have caught the virus. The experts are recommending doing contact tracing / testing which makes sense. Once you do that you can open some business and low risk activities. Large group events will not likely occur until treatments are available.

  9. #229

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    Agreed about contact/trace testing, a primary cog in the gears of containment. Unfortunately we are currently in mitigation phase and not even close to C/T testing currently since there is no national testing platform and supply chain to support it for whatever reasons. Until we have that capability, we won't know who has been exposed or is carrying illness and what potential infections were left in their wake.

    Testing aside, hiking ethics it is an issue we all have to address on a personal level. Are we simple wayfarers incapable of carrying disease and spreading it unknowingly among those we pass on the trail, or are we a necessary instrument of this viral illness and a real danger to other people along the trail and trail towns. Some rationalize this illness as being a common risk hazard of life and presume all they come in contact with has made the choice to accept, much as we would accept the risk of driving a car. Others see it as a duty to protect the health of those around them and not engage in activities that expose others unnecessarily. Personal ethics help define which gradient line one falls on between the extremes.

  10. #230

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    Covid-20 is coming and should not be underestimated. It manifests itself as fatigue and malaise. It's caused by the 20 pounds you've gained waiting out Covid-19. The good news, body mass index testing already exists

  11. #231

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    Quote Originally Posted by SkeeterPee View Post
    No one can give a good answer why they think we need widespread testing. You could test every person and the next week some of them would have caught the virus. The experts are recommending doing contact tracing / testing which makes sense. Once you do that you can open some business and low risk activities. Large group events will not likely occur until treatments are available.
    Depends on which type of testing you are talking about. Testing for the virus and doing contact tracing is intended to halt the epidemic. Antibody testing to see if a person is likely immune to the virus is a different thing altogether. If you have antibodies to the virus then thru hiking the AT would likely not pose a danger to you or anyone you come in contact with and solves the ethical dilemma of whether you should hike or not. Beyond that the widespread testing for antibodies against the virus would allow those who are likely immune to resume normal life.
    If you don't stand for something, you will fall for anything.

  12. #232
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    Quote Originally Posted by TexasBob View Post
    Depends on which type of testing you are talking about. Testing for the virus and doing contact tracing is intended to halt the epidemic. Antibody testing to see if a person is likely immune to the virus is a different thing altogether. If you have antibodies to the virus then thru hiking the AT would likely not pose a danger to you or anyone you come in contact with and solves the ethical dilemma of whether you should hike or not. Beyond that the widespread testing for antibodies against the virus would allow those who are likely immune to resume normal life.
    We do not have an approved antibody test yet. We don't even know that you can't get the disease more than once or how long antibodies might last. So the test they are talking about is the test to see if you have a current infection. The CDC is right that we do not need wide spread testing as in everyone (350 million) is tested. We need tests so anyone feeling ill can be tested quickly and we need tests for all their contacts. That is not that many more tests than we have today and hopefully we can get those 15 minute tests to every clinic in the country soon. Many have the machine already.

  13. #233

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    The other coronaviruses (SARS, MERS and the others less mentioned in the news) gave one immunity for months to 3 years. It’s not quite that simple but the short answer is that you don’t have immunity for long.

  14. #234
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    Quote Originally Posted by TexasBob View Post
    If you have antibodies to the virus then thru hiking the AT would likely not pose a danger to you or anyone you come in contact with and solves the ethical dilemma of whether you should hike or not.
    It would not solve the ethical issue at all.

    If you get injured or sick on the trail, which happens all the time, you may very well require a litter carry and 8 or more rescuers to bail you out. That's a minimum of 4 people at a time being huddled around each other, breathing hard in each others faces. Many of these people are first responders in the small trail towns they live, where they're either likely to be exposed to COVID-19 already or if they get exposed will be likely to transmit it to vulnerable people they work with. You're also then possibly occupying valuable health resources in a rural town that might be already overwhelmed by the virus, especially if you require a hospital.

    This is one of those times where we can all either choose to be part of the problem or part of the solution. Not being able to go for a hike is hardly a hardship worthy of risking the health and life of others over, but some people seem to think their fun and "personal freedom" is all that matters and life should not ever be inconvenient for them.

  15. #235

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    At this point, anyone "feeling ill" should assume they have the COVID-19, stay home and tell everyone they might have been in contact with in the last few days. It's possible you got it from one of them or you gave it to one of them.

    The test currently isn't accurate early on, but weeding out those who are far enough along to test positive and getting them to self isolate ASAP is important. By the time you notice your ill, you've probably been infectious for 3-4 days prior. Then there are those who don't have any real symptoms, yet are breeding the virus. These people need to be identified. But to be effective, everyone would need to be tested on a frequent, rotating basis. Just because you didn't test positive one day doesn't mean you won't a few days later. That's a daunting task at all levels. Without a coordinated, nation wide system already in place, even more daunting.

    Oaky, you might not have to test everyone, but a targeted sample group in each community such as the service workers with a lot of public exposure. If a hot spot emerges, then wide spread testing is done to contain the outbreak. although this has to be preformed locally, it still needs national coordination and funding. The virus respects no artificial boarders and there are a lot of hot spots now.

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  16. #236
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zea View Post
    ....

    If you get injured or sick on the trail, which happens all the time, you may very well require a litter carry and 8 or more rescuers to bail you out.
    ....
    Thats one of the reasons why here in Austria it's highly recommended to stay and walk near your home only, and a total no-go to go out for adventurous trips.
    The rescue switched to airlifting exclusively, thus reducing the number of people getting in close contact with the victim.

  17. #237
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zea View Post
    It would not solve the ethical issue at all.

    If you get injured or sick on the trail, which happens all the time, you may very well require a litter carry and 8 or more rescuers to bail you out. That's a minimum of 4 people at a time being huddled around each other, breathing hard in each others faces. Many of these people are first responders in the small trail towns they live, where they're either likely to be exposed to COVID-19 already or if they get exposed will be likely to transmit it to vulnerable people they work with. You're also then possibly occupying valuable health resources in a rural town that might be already overwhelmed by the virus, especially if you require a hospital.

    This is one of those times where we can all either choose to be part of the problem or part of the solution. Not being able to go for a hike is hardly a hardship worthy of risking the health and life of others over, but some people seem to think their fun and "personal freedom" is all that matters and life should not ever be inconvenient for them.
    I don't want this to sound augmentative, but are you planning to go anywhere when the country reopens? Or will you stay home for how ever many years this takes to resolve? it may be several years. If you go out for any number of reasons bad things could occur where you will you will expose others to possible threats. That is far more likely than a hiker getting injured and putting people at risk. Your fears are not based on reasonable risks.

  18. #238

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    Quote Originally Posted by SkeeterPee View Post
    We do not have an approved antibody test yet. ..........
    Yes we do. https://www.biospace.com/article/fda...antibody-test/
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  19. #239

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zea View Post
    It would not solve the ethical issue at all.

    If you get injured or sick on the trail, which happens all the time, you may very well require a litter carry and 8 or more rescuers to bail you out. That's a minimum of 4 people at a time being huddled around each other, breathing hard in each others faces. Many of these people are first responders in the small trail towns they live, where they're either likely to be exposed to COVID-19 already or if they get exposed will be likely to transmit it to vulnerable people they work with. You're also then possibly occupying valuable health resources in a rural town that might be already overwhelmed by the virus, especially if you require a hospital.

    This is one of those times where we can all either choose to be part of the problem or part of the solution. Not being able to go for a hike is hardly a hardship worthy of risking the health and life of others over, but some people seem to think their fun and "personal freedom" is all that matters and life should not ever be inconvenient for them.
    You make some good points about using resources in rural areas if you get injured. My point was that if you are likely immune to the virus you would not be spreading it or getting ill from it on the trail. I agree with you that now isn't the time to be on the AT and the best thing to do is stay home for everybody's health.
    If you don't stand for something, you will fall for anything.

  20. #240
    Registered User colorado_rob's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zea View Post
    It would not solve the ethical issue at all.

    If you get injured or sick on the trail, which happens all the time....
    Well, actually not. It is pretty rare that any sort of a rescue is needed off of most trails. I don't disagree with the rest of what you say, just this point, which is a real stretch IMO.

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