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  1. #101

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    It's slowly dawning on me that overseas travel may not be on the cards for 2021...

    It's been difficult to predict the course of the pandemic beyond a month or two out, so hopefully I am wrong and Summer travel will still be possible. But right now we are locked down, and my number hasn't come up yet for vaccination.
    (trailname: Paul-from-Scotland)

  2. #102
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    Sorry! You have my sympathy!

    (I did the West Highland Way in 2019 and the Borders Abbeys Way in 2018. I was planning on doing the Dales Way in 2020 -- the lack of international travel stinks!)

  3. #103
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    Suffering with you all...
    When looking at things going on here in EU and especially in GB (mutations), there is not much hope for a release of international travel bans for 2021.
    Even if the vac will cover a reasonable percentage of the population (which I highly doubt if it will happen in 21), it is still not sure if this will release the ban. To many unkown factors in the equation.

    Personally I have a big hike in my beloved Middle East desert in the pipeline for Nov/Dec 21, but make myself ready to just forget this idea.

  4. #104
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    The IHME (University of Washington) models show infection and mortality peaking this month or early February and then sharply declining through early April (that's as far out as the projections go). The models take into consideration mandates, vaccine availability, etc. If the model is accurate, things will be significantly better by early spring. Here's hoping, as I'd like to be on the trail in southwest Virginia in April or May.

    Model link: COVID-19 (healthdata.org)

  5. #105
    Is it raining yet?
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    Models.

    They're like polls.
    Be Prepared

  6. #106
    double d's Avatar
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    As others have mentioned, keep in mind that the AT is still under federal policy control (with state and local input as well). And of course the AT is a major economic engine in some parts of rural areas of each state, so that is a factor as well in terms of hiking accommodations (hotels, restaurants, shuttles, etc.). My hope is that some these models come true regarding vaccinations and declining covid-19 infection rates-as none of us has even a day to waste in our living our lives.
    "I told my Ma's and Pa's I was coming to them mountains and they acted as if they was gutshot. Ma, I sez's, them mountains is the marrow of the world and by God, I was right". Del Gue

  7. #107
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    Last year, even without vaccine and possible gains in herd immunity, the virus numbers went way down during the late spring, summer and early autumn. I expect the same this warm season (or better, given vaccines and the continued progress towards herd immunity). I'll be on the trail (unless the wheels really come off).

  8. #108

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dan Roper View Post
    Last year, even without vaccine and possible gains in herd immunity, the virus numbers went way down during the late spring, summer and early autumn. ........
    Up until December, the worse time for the virus in Texas was mid-July last summer. We had a very big surge in cases, hospitalizations and deaths at that time. I hope this spring and summer are much better.
    If you don't stand for something, you will fall for anything.

  9. #109
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    [QUOTE=futureatwalker;2279087]It's slowly dawning on me that overseas travel may not be on the cards for 2021...
    /QUOTE]
    So sorry! Our exchange students went home early in 2020. Our 2020-21 students were not allowed to come, and now it is questionable if the 2021-22 kids get to come. So frustrating for all!

  10. #110
    Registered User Prov's Avatar
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    There are lots of long distance trails besides the AT (or the big 3). This may be the perfect year to explore them. I’m a bartender who has been out of work since March so I used the summer and fall to do lots of social distanced hiking. The big problem ended up being some of the trail towns. Getting the newsletters from so many of the trail organizations I paid attention when they said stay away, and when they said come back and put some money in these towns, but be careful and respectful not to get people sick, I was all about it. What I found out is that so many towns wanted my money but didn’t care about my safety. I walked in and out of mom & pop businesses where none of the cooks or waitstaff were wearing masks. I bought nothing that I didn’t have to, and left towns on the GAP/C&O when I could just ride to the next town. It was so frustrating in Pine, AZ when I hadn’t showered, done laundry, or had a good meal in a week and not a single person in town was masked. I left. If someone is giving me the middle finger I’m not handing them my cash. I’m about to hop on the Florida Trail for a LASH and I’m expecting the worst. I’m planning on sending bigger and more frequent mail drops than the norm. I’ll be walking into towns, grabbing my package, and walking out.

  11. #111
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    Due to COVID and other reasons, I didnít hike at all in 2020 and I miss it and will be heading out shortly. The trail towns and shelters seem like the most significant risks. Iím planning to do circuits involving the AT and other trails in Shenandoah National Park for the rest of the winter and plan to hike the AT thru the park in April with no resupply (although I wonít be able to resist the waysides...). Iím planning a modified JMT in July with resupplies not involving towns. Iíve flown many times last year and with an N95 mask Iíve been ok so far.

    I want to be responsible but also live my life. Iíll be 48 this year. How many good years do I have left? We all have seen people die too young. Backpacking is part of my life and was hard to give up last year. Lots to see and do still. Risks are everywhere. Pick your risks wisely.

  12. #112

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    I turned 68 a few days ago. How many good years do I have left? I hope at least a couple. My plan is to make it to 75, then start to drink and smoke heavily In the mean time, I don't think I should take too many chances.

    Apparently, one of the common long haul side effects of surviving COVID is decreased lung capacity due to tissue damage. That could bring your hiking to an end.
    Follow slogoen on Instagram.

  13. #113
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    Yeah, the name of the game right now is to take extra precautions until the vaccine is available - probably a couple of months for me although Virginia just opened up to under 65 with pre-existing conditions and I have a few (who doesn't), so keeping my fingers crossed.

  14. #114
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    Quote Originally Posted by Coffee View Post
    Yeah, the name of the game right now is to take extra precautions until the vaccine is available - probably a couple of months for me although Virginia just opened up to under 65 with pre-existing conditions and I have a few (who doesn't), so keeping my fingers crossed.
    As strange as it may seem, folks who have recovered or received the vaccine (or both in the case of an elderly relative of mine) are being cautioned that they should not deviate from prior social distancing protocols even after the second dose ó both for their own benefit and for the benefit of those around them.

    I find this directive problematic on a personal level, even if the protection/immunity is everything we hope it to be.

  15. #115

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    Quote Originally Posted by justhike View Post
    Happy to help with rides (May and later) to/from trailheads ~Canopus Lake, NY through CT (I live 1.5 mi from trail at NY-CT border) so you can avoid some out-n-backs. I did a lot of trail magic, short- and long-distance shuttles, and slackpacking in 2020. Windows open, masks on, most riders in back seat - had no problem with virus, but I know conditions are a bit different at the moment....and we each have our comfort level. Send me a pm and i can get back to you with my cell# if you'd like.
    Thanks! Sorry I missed your reply earlier. I have family and friends in NY, so am pretty well supported there. Might need some help in Connecticut.

  16. #116

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    Quote Originally Posted by rickb View Post
    As strange as it may seem, folks who have recovered or received the vaccine (or both in the case of an elderly relative of mine) are being cautioned that they should not deviate from prior social distancing protocols even after the second dose — both for their own benefit and for the benefit of those around them.

    I find this directive problematic on a personal level, even if the protection/immunity is everything we hope it to be.
    The vaccines are rated by efficacy (which is different than effectiveness). Even at 95% efficacy, that leaves 5%. (1 in 20, no work for you) Given the current widespread prevalence of the virus and that the people getting vaccinated are at high risk for poor outcomes, the continued recommendations make sense. (Frontline workers are a different risk group.) Getting the vaccine does not mean you can't get it nor does it mean you can't be asymptomatic. So while many are looking to just get vaccinated, things won't get back to normal until the number of infections actually drops significantly due to widespread vaccinations. Which it should given the initial vaccine results, but it will take weeks to months after "herd immunity" is reached. There will be a lag. That's the longer term horizon. We did not have the collective will to stop the virus without a vaccine. We are getting pummeled right now breaking 4000 deaths a DAY. You may still have people ignoring that reality but you really ought to expect that rules and regulations will continue until seeing evidence of herd immunity. Even with knowing vaccine production numbers, the states are all over the place with implementation as well. Like the other thread though, best to just stick to the actual on trail conditions.
    "Sleepy alligator in the noonday sun
    Sleepin by the river just like he usually done
    Call for his whisky
    He can call for his tea
    Call all he wanta but he can't call me..."
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  17. #117
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    Several I know are and have been picking up access to walking along the Appalachiaís from different and even more difficult trail heads. You can walk the mtns and still be considered a purist. Well more pure than the Noro campers anyhows.

  18. #118

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    Vaccines are a temporary fix. You will need another one in a few months because the effects wear off. Just like flu vaccines that people have to take every single year...

  19. #119
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    Israel being the most advanced vac shooter, seems to notice some effect already by infections going down (comparing groups with vac, and groups without).
    Lets hope for the best!

  20. #120
    Registered User JNI64's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Traffic Jam View Post
    I just got the first dose of the Pfizer vaccine. It didnít hurt but my arm started getting sore within 15 minutes. I expect fatigue and muscle soreness for the next few days.

    edit...itís not a localized (at the injection site) soreness. The soreness goes up to my shoulder and down into my hand.
    I just received my first dose Friday night. The actual shot i barely felt but yes me too shortly after my shoulder started hurting. Saturday it felt like a mule had kicked me i couldn't even lift my arm above my head and felt sick. Saturday night I ended up taking nyquil. Today back to normal I think although I crave BRAINS !! Just kidding !!

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