Do Advancements in Gear, Nutrition, Support, Etc. Make a Material Difference?

[Dan Roper]

I mulled over this question today, while mowing the grass.

The backpacking community has the benefit of tremendous advances in so many aspects of hiking - lighter gear like packs and sleeping bags, better clothing, better and lighter shoes, better nutrition, better hydration, better support systems (phones, shuttles, hostels), better ways to ward off ticks and insects, electronic access to up-to-the-minute info on weather, water, camping spots, etc.

And yet, so far as I know, the percentage of backpackers completing a thru hike is about the same - roughly 25%.

Why is that?

My first guess is that all those advancements are, even cumulatively, small things in comparison to the enormity of backpacking nearly 2,200 miles. Physical effort is 99% of undertaking, so we are maximizing the remaining 1%.

It is also possible that the advancements have been offset by certain detriments. We are less physically active than past generations, so need more "help" to bring us up to a level of comfort and capability that matches previous generations.

Whether we are using trekking poles or not, carry a smartphone or not, treat our clothes with permethrin or not, use electrolytes or not, prefer running shoes to boots, and any of three dozen other things, is just small stuff. In the end, we still are toting heavy packs up and down big mountains for 2,000 miles.

[chknfngrs]

Mental capacity should not be undersold. It’s every bit in your head as in your soles.

[Deadeye]

I hiked the Long Trail with my Dad from '69 to '72. No cell phones, no water treatment, heavy (by today's standards, but best in class at the time) equipment, cotton clothes, all the wrong things. The Svea stove often failed. The blackflies were worse than they are now. We were sweaty, wet, tired, and had a ball. Good, light equipment helps a lot (especially as I get old) to make trail life easier, but it's still hard if you let it be hard.
Attitude is everything.

[Lone Wolf]

fantasy vs. reality

[HankIV]

My guess is that as the mix of attempees has shifted to include more women and older folk, the gear improvements have been incrementally helpful. I wonder if the average time of completion might be a little quicker now as well.

I push back on the 99% physical comment, so much of it is raw determination.

[ALLEGHENY]

“I push back on the 99% physical comment, so much of it is raw determination.[/QUOTE]

[gpburdelljr]

Here is an article on the top 5 reasons people quit a thru hike.
https://oneofsevenproject.com/top-5-...-hikers-quit/#

[ALLEGHENY]

“I push back on the 99% physical comment, so much of it is raw determination.

[/QUOTE]
I was agreeing with the raw determination part.

[Dan Roper]

I put the 99% awkwardly, as I know that the mental aspect is huge. What I meant convey was that the effort (mental and physical) to backpack 2,200 miles is so immense that it dwarfs, by comparison, any tweaking we can accomplish in gear, clothing, etc.

[Night Train]

Interesting question. Gear advancement is great but doesn't bridge the gap when it comes to injuries, financial short falls, family concerns or time, all which are reasons for an incomplete thru hike. Of course, other reasons exist for the 75 to 80 percent of incompletes but the majority probably fall into one of the above scenarios.

[petedelisio]

I thought AT completions was about 10% of the even less hikers not so long ago when people were carrying thicker heavier codura packs compared to the 25% of more hikers nowadays.

How has staying hydrated improved?

[garlic08]

That's a great question. I lean toward the "we're getting softer" explanation. I often ponder Shackleton's Antarctic expedition, and whether any group of humans alive today could reproduce that result.

[camper10469]

no! reviews from people i know carries more weight. adds are food for thought and is a good way to see whats new but it doesnt make me run to get the items.

[Dan Roper]

Better and lighter filters, lighter water containers, electrolytes, more up-to-date information about water sources (via FarOut, etc.)

Interesting question. Gear advancement is great but doesn't bridge the gap when it comes to injuries, financial short falls, family concerns or time, all which are reasons for an incomplete thru hike. Of course, other reasons exist for the 75 to 80 percent of incompletes but the majority probably fall into one of the above scenarios.

[gpburdelljr]

I thought AT completions was about 10% of the even less hikers not so long ago when people were carrying thicker heavier codura packs compared to the 25% of more hikers nowadays.

How has staying hydrated improved?

I haven’t seen any data indicating a lower completion rate in the past. For as long as I can remember the completion rate has been in the 20-25% range.

[Miner]

Thur-hiking has always been about just walking, but it's the mental challenges that drive most people off. Frankly most of those things listed in the OP aren't really changing anything as there aren't any real improvements other than improvements to gear. It's just that there are more options and information is easier to come by.

Not everyone is taking advantage of the new improved gear, especially many who start the AT. You typically see more of such gear on the PCT and CDT which require higher daily mileage. The lighter gear does make it easier for older folk to stay in the hobby. Those who have lighter gear, and know how to use it properly, I think do have a better chance to avoid quitting due to a physical issue, if they don't over do it because it's easier to push. It isn't going to help with the mental challenges which remains the biggest factor.

Hostels and shuttles have come and gone for decades on the AT. People use to get that information from the physical databooks that were updated yearly, it's just that the internet and smartphones make it easy to get more up to date information, book a room ahead of time, and to call for shuttles when you use to have to just hitchhike. These aren't the sort of things that will improve your chances of finishing, it just makes things a bit easier and more convenient. I think the biggest improvement for shuttles has mostly been on the PCT and CDT which never had as many options (if any at all in some locations). Smartphone apps have allowed users to post information on people in town willing to give rides that would otherwise be unknown. But this isn't the sort of thing that will improve your chances on finishing.

Other than having better access to information on proper nutrition, I don't think anything has improved here. I'm not seeing the improved nutrition for many actually hiking. I live near the PCT and go backpacking along parts of it all the time. Too many hikers still eat garbage in town and their trail diet isn't good enough to compensate. I've picked up more than one PCT hiker in the Sierra Nevada complaining about a lack of energy and needing to get off for awhile. One hiker I picked up told me it was his second time with the problem on his hike. From listening to them describe their diet and considering they have been out for several weeks to a few months, I think the lack of proper nutrition can explain at least a few hikers issues. When I hiked the CDT last year, I ate the same way I did 14 years earlier on the PCT, but I made an effort on both hikes to get what nutrition I could on trail and in town. And later on in both hikes, I was able to deliberately gain back some of the weight I lost earlier on when I thought it dropped to much. Too many people believe that phrase, "a calorie is a calorie" so they can eat anything they want while hiking without consequence. At least on the AT, since you go to town more often, you have a better opportunity to eat healthier. Too bad some don't take advantage of it.

I don't see hydration having improved much either; just that there are more options than there used to be, for both filters and electrolytes. The fact that filter choices are now lighter is the only real improvement, but to me that is more of a gear improvement thing.

[Lone Wolf]

gear and weight have no bearing on success. I've known folks that tried to slack the whole thing and fail. it's 100% in your head

[Dan Roper]

Well, of course they have some bearing. Else people wouldn't try to optimize everything. But the larger point is that these have minimal impact on success because they are dwarfed by the physical and mental components.

[RockDoc]

I think fitness and attitude is more important than gear... I saw a lot of hopeful thrus with top gear bail out by Hot Springs, and other people with crummy older gear continued on successfully.
I don't think there's any correlation of gear with success.

[BillyGr]

I think fitness and attitude is more important than gear... I saw a lot of hopeful thrus with top gear bail out by Hot Springs, and other people with crummy older gear continued on successfully.
I don't think there's any correlation of gear with success.

Or is there - perhaps those with the "top gear" just read and bought that stuff but were not big hikers previously, while those with the crummy older gear have that as they have hiked for many years (and thus may be more prepared to attempt a long hike like this)?