2010 Appalachian Trail Circle Expedition

[Alligator]

That didn't answer my question at all. Is there something you are hiding? The question is, how many people who have started with your group at Springer have completed the trek to Katahdin? I'm not just asking about circle members. I'm asking about other people traveling in the van supported group.

This is not nitpicking, this is asking for truth in advertising. Warren has intitiated multiple threads on these hikes, posted about them other threads, a couple of times unsolicitated, and frequently boasted about completion rates. These are legitimate questions. Members of this board have a right to ask these questions. It's a hefty chunk of time to commit to. Complete, forthright, and honest information is important. IMO, real leaders provide that and do not duck hard questions. Warren has in the past expressed dissatisfaction with the quality of information presented on this board. I'm giving him the opportunity to get the complete set of facts regarding lhis group hikes.

There are two people who have expressed interest for these hikes. It is my understanding that joining the circle is not a requirement to travel, so knowing the completion rate for others is important, since they too are contributing to expenses.

[Frosty]

It's a hefty chunk of time to commit to. Complete, forthright, and honest information is important. IMO, real leaders provide that and do not duck hard questions. Warren has in the past expressed dissatisfaction with the quality of information presented on this board. I'm giving him the opportunity to get the complete set of facts regarding lhis group hikes.

There are two people who have expressed interest for these hikes. It is my understanding that joining the circle is not a requirement to travel, so knowing the completion rate for others is important, since they too are contributing to expenses.

I'm one of the two, but I don't need your "help" in deciding if this is the right thing for me to do or not.

Obviously you do not like the idea of the Expedition, and that is super. It isn't for everyone. It is a group of like-minded individuals with the same philosophy and goals. If the phiosophy and goals are not yours, you wouldn't enjoy yourself and in all honesty you wouldn't be an asset to the group anyway.

There are many ways to hike. I do not presume to tell you that the way you want to hike is wrong. It is very noble of you to be looking out for my interests, but since your philosophy of hiking is a polar opposite of anyone who is interested in the Expedition, I don't see how you can assist me and others of my ilk.

If this style of hiking threatens you, or if you think people should not hike this way for any reason, then continue to bang away at it all you want, but kindly speak for yourself. Don't pretend you are doing it to save me from myself.

Please don't fill this thread with the if-you-don't-hike-the-way-I-do-you-are-wrong venom that filled the WHERE'S KIRBY thread. Thank you, and remember Kipling's words about HYOH.

From "In the Neolithic Age" by Rudyard Kipling:

Then I stripped them, scalp from skull, and my hunting-dogs fed full,
And their teeth I threaded neatly on a thong;
And I wiped my mouth and said, "It is well that they are dead,
For I know my work is right and theirs was wrong."

But my Totem saw the shame; from his ridgepole-shrine he came,
And he told me in a vision of the night: -
"There are nine and sixty ways of constructing tribal lays,
"And every single one of them is right!"

Then the silence closed upon me till They put new clothing on me
Of whiter, weaker flesh and bone more frail;
And I stepped beneath Time's finger, once again a tribal singer,
And a minor poet certified by Tr--l.

[MOWGLI]

I'm one of the two, but I don't need your "help" in deciding if this is the right thing for me to do or not.

Obviously you do not like the idea of the Expedition, and that is super.

So I guess I'm not the only one who acknowledges the obvious.

[Alligator]

I only presented the case that there were two people on the board who expressed in an interest, thus showing that there is some interest. I'm not asking on your behalf. You can ask your own questions Frosty and I'm entitled to ask mine. There are other people on this board though, and I alluded to that also.

Actually though, I am seriously thinking of spending some time with the group in 2010. I'd like to see what the ruckus is all about. I was thinking of broaching the subject of a week's outside observation.

I'm just asking for the numbers. Why is that so threatening.

[MOWGLI]

I'm just asking for the numbers. Why is that so threatening.

It's the manner in which you ask. He posted completion numbers already. Give it a rest.

[Alligator]

It's the manner in which you ask. He posted completion numbers already. Give it a rest.

There's nothing wrong with this post. So you give it a rest.

Since we've got about 1.5+ years to go on this shindig.

One question about these trips that I've never gotten a complete answer on is the completion rates. Warren typically cites the circle member completion rate. I think people could get a better picture if he'd present the total number of people who start at Springer and receive support from the van and the number that complete the entire trail. The numbers have seemed to me to have been parsed in the past.

For instance I'd be interested in this sort of breakdown.
13 people started at Springer. 8 were part of the circle. All 13 had their stuff in the expedition's van. 10 people hiked the entire trail, 8 were circle members. 1 of the 3 who didn't hike the entire trail made it up Springer but took the canoe. One person dropped off due to a death in the family, and one person skipped 200 miles.

I think that's a fair question. I'm simply asking for factual information so that interested parties can make an informed decision.

[weary]

If I felt I would be capable in two years to do a thru hike, I would join. It obviously will be a long and arduous and those attempting it have to demonstrate their determination and ability in advance.

As near as I can figure out, the facts are not as mysterious as Alligator suggests. Those who complete the required preparation are encouraged to join the "Circle" on Springer. Those with doubts or who have not done the preparation can start but cannot join the circle until they have demonstrated on the trail their ability and commitment.

It's all explained on the web site; http://www.warrendoyle.com/

It strikes me that the number who start is meaningless. They include late comers, the curious. Those who want to try before making up their mind.

Warren obviously is very proud of the completion rate of his "Circles." He wisely encourages everyone to know all the facts and difficulties before joining. It's a multistep process, designed to weed out the uncommitted and the unprepared.

Weary

[A-Train]

I think only those who have done a Warren Circle hike and a traditional backpackin thru are credible to say which is easier. I backpacked the whole AT, but I wouldn;t necessarily feel confident saying that walking with 30 lbs on my back is harder than slackpacking everyday. When I got sick I was able to take a few days off and rest. When I got shin splints I was able to go home for 2 days and visit family and friends. When the snow came down in Erwin and Damascus, again, able to take a zero day.

The fact is, the average thru-hike probably takes close to a month of zero days, and averages 12 miles a day. Thus, they have lots of time to sit on their butts, and then recharge their batteries. A person who has committed to the circle doesn't "have" that liberty. They can always drop out, but that's not an easy decision to make.

Someone asked Warren at his Circle movie screnning at the Gathering, "What about the people who got injured or sick?" to which he replied something like "They walked thru it and continued on. It was mostly mental getting over ailments".

So, if you consider that some of these folks walked for basically 120 days with 1 or 2 zero days and walked through lots of blisters, aches, ailments and conditions, I'd say that's pretty impressive. It may not get a rise out of the died in the wool purist, who loves to take pride in walking uphill both ways barefoot, but I think it's a) impressive and b) different.

[Alligator]

I'm one of the two, but I don't need your "help" in deciding if this is the right thing for me to do or not.

Obviously you do not like the idea of the Expedition, and that is super. It isn't for everyone. It is a group of like-minded individuals with the same philosophy and goals. If the phiosophy and goals are not yours, you wouldn't enjoy yourself and in all honesty you wouldn't be an asset to the group anyway.

There are many ways to hike. I do not presume to tell you that the way you want to hike is wrong. It is very noble of you to be looking out for my interests, but since your philosophy of hiking is a polar opposite of anyone who is interested in the Expedition, I don't see how you can assist me and others of my ilk.

If this style of hiking threatens you, or if you think people should not hike this way for any reason, then continue to bang away at it all you want, but kindly speak for yourself. Don't pretend you are doing it to save me from myself.

Please don't fill this thread with the if-you-don't-hike-the-way-I-do-you-are-wrong venom that filled the WHERE'S KIRBY thread. Thank you, and remember Kipling's words about HYOH.

From "In the Neolithic Age" by Rudyard Kipling:

Then I stripped them, scalp from skull, and my hunting-dogs fed full,
And their teeth I threaded neatly on a thong;
And I wiped my mouth and said, "It is well that they are dead,
For I know my work is right and theirs was wrong."

But my Totem saw the shame; from his ridgepole-shrine he came,
And he told me in a vision of the night: -
"There are nine and sixty ways of constructing tribal lays,
"And every single one of them is right!"

Then the silence closed upon me till They put new clothing on me
Of whiter, weaker flesh and bone more frail;
And I stepped beneath Time's finger, once again a tribal singer,
And a minor poet certified by Tr--l.

Frosty, I'm compelled to further respond here. It's absolutely baseless for you to suggest that I am presuming to tell anyone how to hike or that expedition style hiking threatens me. My earliest comments centered around a comparison that I thought was not appropriate and my other posts revolved around getting all the facts out. If folks want to engage in a hike of this nature, go for it. Great. If it helps them achieve their dream. Super. If you want to hike 5 miles a day. Fabulous. You want to carry a tuba, more power to you. I can't ever remember saying the Circle is a rotten way to hike or anything to that effect. Personally, I think it has the potential to be a good method for some people. Frosty, you are simply wrong in saying that I think people should not participate in this endeavor. I've always been comfortable with the notion of 2000-miler. I think it's a great accomplishment however its done.

...
Warren obviously is very proud of the completion rate of his "Circles." He wisely encourages everyone to know all the facts and difficulties before joining. It's a multistep process, designed to weed out the uncommitted and the unprepared.

Weary

Well then it would be important to know how the effect of not joining the circle might reduce your success since that option is open, and I think has been taken by others. Only Warren can correct that by stating "all the facts". In fact, I think it would help demonstrate the benefits of his method to make that information available.

[rickb]

I am thinking that its rather remarkable that the odds of a Circle member completing a thru hike are higher than that of even the most seasoned and exerienced hikers on this list.

Got to wnder why. Warren's circle members are not supermen and women, but somehow they make it. Whether or not you take his approach or hike from town to town, it is facinating. Those kinds of completion rates can't be because the members don't carry packs.

[Jack Tarlin]

Pokey:

Thanks for the courtesy of your reply to my questions, even tho the questions were actually directed to someone else.

Good luck on your hike.

[Alligator]

I am thinking that its rather remarkable that the odds of a Circle member completing a thru hike are higher than that of even the most seasoned and exerienced hikers on this list.

Got to wnder why. Warren's circle members are not supermen and women, but somehow they make it. Whether or not you take his approach or hike from town to town, it is facinating. Those kinds of completion rates can't be because the members don't carry packs.

I haven't seen any numbers comparing groups other than Warren's to suggest definitively whether it's the packlessness or the circle method that contribute to the success rate. Warren hinted some, but it's always a good idea to get a corroborating source.

[tlbj6142]

I am thinking that its rather remarkable that the odds of a Circle member completing a thru hike are higher than that of even the most seasoned and exerienced hikers on this list.

It is the forced preparation and expectation setting that helps the success rate. Many of you are worked up about the pack/packless issue, when the real difference is preparation, expectation setting, hiking with a group that truly has common goals, etc.

How many non-Circle thru-hikers truly spend time physically preparing for their hike?
How many non-Circle thru-hikers truly understand what to expect?
How many non-Circle thru-hikers, that want to finish, end up getting "sucked into" the party crowd only to see their original goal (to finish) vanish?

Rather than complaining about Warren's "method", we should be learning from it. The thru-hiking "fathers" need to make a better effort to warn and prepare non-Circle hikers for their trips. Let potential hikers know the need to prepare, set their expectations and understand their true goals. Instead we just say "HYOH". And to those that don't complete their goals, we allow them to vanish from our memories as just another "statistic".

[max patch]

Those kinds of completion rates can't be because the members don't carry packs.

Well, part of it has to be.

I'm guessing that the receipe for success calls for equal parts of:

not carrying packs,
the initial vetting process, and
peer pressure

Interesting question.

[Marta]

Well, part of it has to be.

I'm guessing that the receipe for success calls for equal parts of:

not carrying packs,
the initial vetting process, and
peer pressure

Interesting question.

It is an interesting question. My gut feeling is that the last two ingredients are the most important.

First, the team self-selects members for commitment to the team's goal.
Second, once that commitment is made, the members help each other succeed.

It's like blaming your teenaged child's problems in bad friends, when your child first had to select those bad friends to hang out with.

The Circles are composed of "good friends" who help each other succeed. The pre-hike hikes are not only physical tests; I imagine that the hikes weed out some "theoretical hikers," who like to read about and think about hiking, but find the reality to be somewhere between disappointing and horrifying.

FWIW, I'm personally not a very good team player, and would probably not flourish in the team environment. Of my three kids, two are not team players and one is. The one who is will far outperform himself as a member of a team than he will as an individual competitor.

It is an interesting question. Could I hold up to the Circle's pace? I doubt I'll ever know.

[Creek Dancer]

The whole "circle" idea is not for me. Too cultish.

[Alligator]

If you think that Max's ingredient list is reasonable, and that as Marta says, it's a self-selection process shouldn't it at least be considered that the people who start the program should be included when examining the success of the program? People dropping out because they can't hack the prep hikes are possibly very similar to those who drop out in GA.

[Mags]

I am glad there are so many ways to enjoy not only the AT, but the mountains in general.

Some are easier, some are harder. Some encourage group participation, some are better suited for soloists.

They are all fulfilling for the right person.

3 more hours until freedom...

[warren doyle]

If I felt I would be capable in two years to do a thru hike, I would join. It obviously will be a long and arduous and those attempting it have to demonstrate their determination and ability in advance.

As near as I can figure out, the facts are not as mysterious as Alligator suggests. Those who complete the required preparation are encouraged to join the "Circle" on Springer. Those with doubts or who have not done the preparation can start but cannot join the circle until they have demonstrated on the trail their ability and commitment.

It's all explained on the web site; http://www.warrendoyle.com/

It strikes me that the number who start is meaningless. They include late comers, the curious. Those who want to try before making up their mind.

Warren obviously is very proud of the completion rate of his "Circles." He wisely encourages everyone to know all the facts and difficulties before joining. It's a multistep process, designed to weed out the uncommitted and the unprepared.

Weary

Weary, you are very insightful.

The sole task/mission of the AT Circle Expedition is to transport an unbroken circle from Springer to Katahdin. The completion rate is solely based on this mission. We have had one unbroken circle in seven expeditions.

I suggest people read the three expectations for committing to the circle on my website below. I think they are easy to understand.

In 1975, we started with 18 people all in the first circle on Springer. There was another solo hiker that started the same time as the group on Springer. After walking with us for several days, the group and he mutually agreed for him to join the circle. All 19 finished.

In 1977, all those folks (14) were in the first circle on Springer. The circle was broken by one member in Vermont, with another dropping out in Hanover, and another dropping out atop Mt. Washington.

In 1980, all 14 people were in the first circle on Springer. All finished.

In 1990 (the subject of the Circle of Dreams documentary), we had 13 people start with 12 people joining the circle. All 13 people finished.

In 1995, we had 13 people start with 10 people joining the circle (I made a slight mistake in my previous post). 12 people finished - the circle of 10 was unbroken and we lost one non-circle member to a fall near Zealand Falls Hut.

In 2000, we had 14 people start with 6 people joining the circle. The circle of 6 was unbroken and all 14 people finished.

In 2005, we had 8 people start with 3 people joining the circle. The circle of 3 was unbroken and 4 of the remaining 5 non-circle people finished. We lost one non-circle member just south of Rockfish Gap to domestic problems back home.

I would estimate the 'drop-out' rate during our pre-expedition preparation sessions as between 40-50%.

[warren doyle]

I am thinking that its rather remarkable that the odds of a Circle member completing a thru hike are higher than that of even the most seasoned and exerienced hikers on this list.

Got to wnder why. Warren's circle members are not supermen and women, but somehow they make it. Whether or not you take his approach or hike from town to town, it is facinating. Those kinds of completion rates can't be because the members don't carry packs.

Another insightful post. Thanks.