All this talk about murder...

[Alligator]

So what are your superpowers? Can you wrassle bears and can you smell a psychopath? Can you light fires with your gaze?

He can burn down shelters with just his mind.
He can kick a hippy a hundred yards.

[trlhiker]

I've noticed in that Virginia Pilot report that no one has been killed on the AT since 1996. Is that correct?

[Programbo]

9 people have been murdered on the trail. i googled it earlier[murder on the AT] and it had some decent info on the subject...

Well you can`t say that...9 people are KNOWN to have been murdered on the trail..What about various wandering hippies, vagabonds, run-a-ways and other drifters who may have met an untimely death along the trail and were buried there and therefore there is no record of them being killed on the AT or anywhere?

[Skidsteer]

Well you can`t say that...9 people are KNOWN to have been murdered on the trail..What about various wandering hippies, vagabonds, run-a-ways and other drifters who may have met an untimely death along the trail and were buried there and therefore there is no record of them being killed on the AT or anywhere?

Happens everywhere else as well. Probably more frequently.

[4eyedbuzzard]

The above wasn't a conclusion?

My conclusion is that based upon the historic evidence, for some reason(again, who knows) thru-hiking is much more dangeous than shorter hikes. Out of the millions of people who hike ONLY some part of the AT every year only 4 have been the victims of a murderer, yet out of a very small sample group 5 who were considered thru-hikers have been victims. And if you were to break it down into "hiker days", thru-hiking murder rates are incredibly high.

The ATC says 3 million+ people use the AT every year. If the average is only 1 "hiker day" per person that's some 66 million "hiker days" over the period 1974 to 1996 in which 9 murders occured overall. But for the thru-hiker subset of some 30,000 hikers(being very generous here) equating to some 5.5 million hiker days there were 5 murders. You do the math.


Again, I offer no reason other than my suspicions that young women were targeted by psychos who may have reasoned them to be unable to protect themselves, not exactly an uncommon occurance in "civilization" either - not that most of the AT is far enough removed from all that to be truly considered wilderness anyway. Additionally, if the murderer knew they were thru-hikers(I don't know if they did or not) they might well reason that they would not be reported missing as quickly or be as likely to be able to summon defensive aid, aiding the murderer in getting away with the crime.

[Dakota Dan]

When you consider total deaths, which include accidents, natural(heart attacks, etc) or homicides the AT would be safer than any city with the same population.

More people will die from heart attacks, etc than accidental deaths.

Homicide percentage is so low its almost a non-figure. The rate may get higher the closer you get to trail-heads. Safer deep in the woods, stealth camping, away from shelters.

You always stand the greatest chance for being killed/injured while in route to/from the trail. Or at the Friday-after-Thanksgiving sale at REI.

[kirbysf]

I have never read so much BS. Most of the comments made make no sense at all. Those of you that argue with those that make those stupid comments have to be smarter than that. Or maybe not. Yes, I had a response to one of those stupid comments. I guess I'm no smarter than they are. But I am smart enough get away from this crap. Bye

[Lone Wolf]

you're more likey to be murdered/raped/assaulted on the AT than being attacked by a bear or bitten by a snake. most plan for the latter

[Tin Man]

All of the murder were not at shelters. Would kill all the bears if one attacked you.

That's not what I was saying. I was just looking for another reason to get rid of the mice-infested, dirty shelters. However, I have reconsidered my position and would prefer that the shelters be maintained so I know where to avoid all the sheeple.

[Lone Wolf]

I have never read so much BS. Most of the comments made make no sense at all. Those of you that argue with those that make those stupid comments have to be smarter than that. Or maybe not. Yes, I had a response to one of those stupid comments. I guess I'm no smarter than they are. But I am smart enough get away from this crap. Bye

no sense of humor.

[Alligator]

I can do the math and calculate rates for any subset of the population I want, state those results, and compare rates. The comparison is meaningless if it is not appropriate to subset on the population. 4EB, I thought you might understand what I was saying when I subsetted on the thruhikers over 30 but you but you just don't get it. So I guess in your mind that thruhikers over 30 have nothing to worry about?

[rickb]

Homicide percentage is so low its almost a non-figure. The rate may get higher the closer you get to trail-heads. Safer deep in the woods, stealth camping, away from shelters.

For every 2000 thru hikers who realized their dream by walking 2000 miles from Maine to Georgia, one thru hiker didn't make it because he or she was murdered by a complete stranger along the way.

[Dakota Dan]

you're more likey to be murdered/raped/assaulted on the AT than being attacked by a bear or bitten by a snake. most plan for the latter

"assaulted" probably counts for 99% of the three. Never heard of any unprovoked wildlife attacks on the AT(only know of one BEAR attack killing the hiker off the AT in GSMNP). Dog attacks rank at the top of attacks on humans.

[Tin Man]

Until someone establishes their credentials as a statistician, not a student of statistics, then all these probability calculations are meaningless.

[weary]

For every 2000 thru hikers who realized their dream by walking 2000 miles from Maine to Georgia, one thru hiker didn't make it because he or she was murdered by a complete stranger along the way.

There are two kinds of lies: deliberate falsehoods and statistics. The above is the latter.

Weary

[Dakota Dan]

Until someone establishes their credentials as a statistician, not a student of statistics, then all these probability calculations are meaningless.

I wouldn't take this stuff too seriously. After all theres a 90% chance it's 100% BS anyway.

[Skidsteer]

Until someone establishes their credentials as a statistician, not a student of statistics, then all these probability calculations are meaningless.

Pretty certain Alligator has the creds.

[SGT Rock]

Aren't something like 67% of statistics made up anyway?

[Tin Man]

Do not put your faith in what statistics say until you have carefully considered what they do not say. ~William W. Watt

[Tin Man]

Pretty certain Alligator has the creds.

Certainly sounds like it. Thanks Skids.