when to start? april 1st or 15th?

[zammy]

I plan to start the trail as a thru hiker.
I am considering April 1st or 15th.
When will it be less crowded?
I am asking because I intend to walk tent-less and use a tarp, knowing that when the trail is crowded I might encounter full shelters.
Thank you.
Zammy
Israel

[Lone Wolf]

Start on the 15th. The 1st is a high volume day.

[Jaybird]

I plan to start the trail as a thru hiker.
I am considering April 1st or 15th.
When will it be less crowded?

Yo ZAMMY:


on April 1st... you're called a FOOL!
on APril 15th...you're gettin' screwed.....

take your pick!



see ya'll UP the trail in 2004!

[zammy]

meaning what....

[jlb2012]

April 1 = round here usually called April Fool's day
April 15 = Tax due day

generally April 1 will have more starters than April 15

[zammy]

April 1 = round here usually called April Fool's day
April 15 = Tax due day

generally April 1 will have more starters than April 15

Thank you for explaining.
I can see the trail ... it will be empty of hikers on the 14th, nice...
...

[Peaks]

I'm hoping to get some real historical data from Walasi-Y. That way we can answer how many start when. Until then, I think that most people agree that the majority of thru-hikers start between mid March and mid April. I supsect that April 1, and the weekend following April 1 are the heaviest start dates. By April 15, the numbers have dropped off considerably.

[weary]

By April 15, the numbers have dropped off considerably.

I left Springer on the 15th in 1993 and found the shelters full nearly every night for the first six weeks, and I quickly drifted behind the pack of hikers. It may have shifted in the decade since, but its my guess that the campsites tend to be crowded at least into early May.

I like a mid April start because the first of the spring flowers will be out and you get to experience scores of springs. The ridges will be winter, the valleys spring for at least the first month. Every dip in the trail changes the season.

Weary

[max patch]

When asked what is the "best date" to start a NOBO thru all things being equal I always recommend April 15. This allows you to miss the bitter winter and possibilty of high snows in the GSNP, and start in the spring and and follow the seasons as you hike. Most importantly, you will finish in the fall. And fall in New England should not be missed.

[zammy]

Thank you all for valuable information, made me change my arrival date.

[Moon Monster]

Avoid weekends and avoid popular dates like the 1st, the 15th, and Vernal Equinox (Mar. 21 usually). All weekends in Mar. and April will be very busy. Tuesdays will probably have a quarter the volume (or less) of the previous Saturday.

In 2003, I started late on a Sunday right behind about 60 hikers who started since that Sat. morning (Mar. 8). I held back the first day and I wound up in a pocket with Monday and Tuesday starters for the first couple weeks. There were only about 15 of them that I saw--hardly a crowd compared to the packs of 30 or 40 just a day or two ahead of me.

[Jaybird]

I'm hoping to get some real historical data from Walasi-Y. That way we can answer how many start when.............................................. .................................................. ........

By April 15, the numbers have dropped off considerably.

Yo Peaks:

According to statistics, over 10-20% of the "thru-hikers" that start @ Springer drop out by 30 miles into the trail (Walasi-Yi/Neels Gap area)...so,
Walasi-Yi would still see quite a few hikers in March & April...BUT,...for accurate hiker numbers you should measure @ Springer & @ the finish line: Katahdin.

(example:

NORTHBOUND 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Springer Mountain, Ga. 2,625 2,875 2,380 1,875 1,750
Neels Gap, Ga. (30 miles) 2,100 2,300 1,904 1,500 1,400
Fontana Dam, N.C. (160 miles) n/a 1,200 1,100 999 1,028
Harpers Ferry, W.Va. (1,000 miles) 689 764 718 687 741
Katahdin, Maine 377 429 394 376 352
Completion rate 14% 15% 17% 20% 20%


stats from ATC


...........see ya'll UP the trail in 2004!

[MOWGLI]

Harpers Ferry, W.Va. (1,000 miles) 689 764 718 687 741
Katahdin, Maine 377 429 394 376 352
Completion rate 14% 15% 17% 20% 20%

I'm surprised to see that more than 50% of hikers who check-in at Harpers Ferry, do not seem to complete the trail. I would think the completion rate for those that make it nearly half-way would have been higher.

[Peaks]

One lingering question is the crowd factor that starts at Springer. Right now, the only survey that I have is the one done by Roland Meuser. He complied data on 136 thur-hikers.

Now, if I can get the number of thru-hikers that sign in at Mountain Crossing/Walasi-Yi on a daily basis, we can get a much better handle on what the real crowd factor is at the start of the AT. We can figure out how what percent start say before March 1, between March 1 and March 15, etc. The ATC statistics don't break it down.

[Brushy Sage]

I started on Mar 4, and various waves of hikers passed me by, and the shelters were often filled (though I was never turned away). A friend who started on Apr 15 the year before, hiked very fast and passed many hikers along the way. Seems to me Apr 15 (Thur this year) is a good date for a hiker who is not going for speed records -- to be with a community of hikers, and avoiding the starting rush from earlier in the season. April 1st is less favorable, because it is the first day of the month, and a lot of people will target that date. Also, the weather will have improved a bit in the southern Appalachians (unless there is another very wet year, with many soaking rains).

[weary]

I'm surprised to see that more than 50% of hikers who check-in at Harpers Ferry, do not seem to complete the trail. I would think the completion rate for those that make it nearly half-way would have been higher.

Most (virtually all?) hikers find the trail to be something other than they expected. Many quit because of the tug of family responsibilities, boredom, finances, physical infirmities, and simply because they are no long enjoying themselves -- or have never enjoyed the trail.

One can always find a plausible excuse to quit and many do.

As for the statistics, The Springer and Neel Gap figures are fairly accurate. The Katahdin figures are highly suspect and probably greatly exaggerated. In terms of using park facilities, Baxter State Park considers anyone who hiked in from Monson a "thru hiker."

In 1993, anyway, I don't recall anyone asking questions. I had come up from Georgia and summitted Katahdin. I'd spent six months and three days on the trail. I'm sure I was considered a "thru hiker." I've never applied for a 2,000 miler patch because I did what was necessary as a not particularly fit 64-year-old.

I might have preferred to have walked "every mile" of the trail. But it simply wasn't possible. But it was still a defining experience in my life. Hardly a day goes by that I don't think of the trail and yearn to return.

Weary

[Peaks]

I'm surprised to see that more than 50% of hikers who check-in at Harpers Ferry, do not seem to complete the trail. I would think the completion rate for those that make it nearly half-way would have been higher.

Let's see.

Assume a 20 percent drop out at Neels Gap, 80 % continue.

It seemed to me that another big drop out place was Pearisburg. By then, all the novelty of thru-hiking had worn off.

By Harper's Ferry, about 30% continue. So, between Neels Gap and Harper's Ferry, 50% drop out.

After Harper's Ferry, another 15% drop out before Katahdin. Their reasons include mental, run out of money, and run out of time. Certainly, after the first month everyone is in shape. But, I'd say that mental is the biggest reason for dropping out after Damascus. Hikers are no longer enjoying them selves. Hikers haven't been eating enough, and that wears them down. etc.

[gravityman]

After Harper's Ferry, another 15% drop out before Katahdin. Their reasons include mental, run out of money, and run out of time. Certainly, after the first month everyone is in shape. But, I'd say that mental is the biggest reason for dropping out after Damascus. Hikers are no longer enjoying them selves. Hikers haven't been eating enough, and that wears them down. etc.

Injury is still a factor at that point. Stress fractures start popping up along with foot problems. We dropped out at Front Royal due to foot neuromas.

Gravity Man

[Peaks]

According to some data compiled by Wingfoot,

60% drop out is mental. They run out of will, find hiking day after day is not what they thought it would be, or they don't have sufficient stamina

25% run out of money.

10% run out of time, or other commitments arise, or their pace is slower than expected

5% become injured or sick.

Source: Appalachian Adventure.

[smokymtnsteve]

was wingfoot in the 60% group?