3.5 month thru hike?

[Minority Funk]

Lets say a group of four young men (ages 18-20) in very good physical condition want to thru hike in a matter of 3 to 3.5 months, any one think this is fesable? I realize many people do a thru hike for the beauty and recommend not rushing it, but at this point in our lives it might be the only chance the four of get to do the AT together, and we want to do it in one sitting. I've done the math and do complete the trail we must average around 30 miles a day if we rest one day a week and have about 10 extra days off for various needs. Like i said before, we are in very good physical condition and 30 miles a day with inclines is possible for us, but we are uncertain if it is possible on the AT due to terrain. Any input would be greatly appreciated. thanks!

[Lone Wolf]

go for it. totally doable.

[KirkMcquest]

I've met plenty of young dudes who claim to be doing huge numbers of miles per day, and I believe them. One group seemed to be doing well over thirty per day ( south of Mass.). Maybe they get slowed down in NH.

[warraghiyagey]

Totally possible. The stats show it is unlikely that the entire group will finish. But the reality is that groups like yours have and you should definitely go for it.

[Appalachian Tater]

http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/showthread.php?p=556823

That pretty much tells you what you need to know.

Warraghiyagey makes a good point.

If each hiker has an above-average 1/3 chance of finishing, the odds of all four finishing would be 1/3x3x3x3 = 1/81 or 1.23%. The odds of three finishing would be significantly higher, well over 3%.

[Minority Funk]

thank you for all of your relpies and so quickly. because of what many of you have pointed out and what the stats say, we each will be packing enough to finish the hike alone if need be

[dessertrat]

Earl Shaffer's first thru hike was in something like 140 days, and his second took him 99 days. We have much better gear and maps and resupply now. So yes, it's totally doable if someone has the willpower to make miles every day.

[fiddlehead]

He travels fastest who travels alone.

I think having 4 people involved together will slow things down considerably.
You may think you can easily do another 5 one day but the slower or hurt guy will say: "No way, we did our miles already today, i'm not moving another inch"
These kind of things could mean that none of you finish it. Just something for you to think about.
Like Grandma Gatewood said: "It's more head than heel"

[earlyriser26]

Go for it. So what if you don't make it? I missed my shot in 1975, now it will be 2012 before I can attempt it. Don't wait 40 years!!!!

[oops56]

Yep do it now in 40 years there be no trail we will be in a ice age

[warren doyle]

Lets say a group of four young men (ages 18-20) in very good physical condition want to thru hike in a matter of 3 to 3.5 months, any one think this is fesable? I realize many people do a thru hike for the beauty and recommend not rushing it, but at this point in our lives it might be the only chance the four of get to do the AT together, and we want to do it in one sitting. I've done the math and do complete the trail we must average around 30 miles a day if we rest one day a week and have about 10 extra days off for various needs. Like i said before, we are in very good physical condition and 30 miles a day with inclines is possible for us, but we are uncertain if it is possible on the AT due to terrain. Any input would be greatly appreciated. thanks!

In my opinion, your present plan is not realistic if you expect all four of you to start and finish at the same time. The history of long-distance thru-hiking on the AT supports this.

3.5 months equals 117 (approx.)days which equals 16.5 weeks (approx.).
That's 26.5 rest days according to your plan and 90.5 days of walking at 24 mpd.
This average mileage would be very difficult for four hikers together.
I suggest you cut your rest days by at least half to increase the chances of you reaching your stated goal.

[Tin Man]

First you say you want to do this together and this is your only chance. Then you say you will pack so you can be independent in case one or more drops out. The former sounds like you want to have fun with your friends. The latter sounds like you want to race to the finish. Perhaps you may want to discuss this as a group and decide what is more important: a long distance hike together -or- completion of a trail with purely artificial start and stop points.

Perhaps you want to consider staying together and doing however much of the trail as you can. Certainly plan A can be a thru attempt, but what if it becomes clear early on that perhaps that is not going to happen for one or more of you? Consider how you will feel if you leave someone behind. Is finishing the AT more important than staying together? How will you feel if you leave someone behind and then you don't finish? Why not consider plan B with the attitude that it is not about the destination, it's about the journey and spending a once in a life-time opportunity with your friends rather than pursuing a race to the end? These are only a few questions you may want to consider before finalizing your plan. A final thought - the AT will always be there to finish; what about your friendships in this point in time?

[clured]

Won't work as a group. Easy as an individual.

[Alligator]

http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/showthread.php?p=556823

That pretty much tells you what you need to know.

Warraghiyagey makes a good point.

If each hiker has an above-average 1/3 chance of finishing, the odds of all four finishing would be 1/3x3x3x3 = 1/81 or 1.23%. The odds of three finishing would be significantly higher, well over 3%.

That doesn't necessarily work that way Tater. Your probability is based on an independent hiker's success rate and doesn't necessarily reflect a group's success. You multiply probabilities like that when the trials are independent, like flipping a coin four times.

[Wags]

Go for it. So what if you don't make it?

best advise on this page imo

[Minority Funk]

you are right, if we dont make it, it isnt the end of the world. while our goal is to finish, our ultimatum is to have fun with our friends. and for tater, 95% of stats are made up

[Gray Blazer]

Yep do it now in 40 years there be no trail we will be in a ice age

Dam global warming. Do it now!

[Wags]

seriously bro go for it! the worst that will happen is you guys walk into a town, party it up, and take a bus home. no regrets is the only way to live

[warren doyle]

If your goal is to have 'fun with your friends', then doing the trail in 3.5 months together is a very unrealistic goal. These two stated goals are incompatible so I hope you decide between yourselves which goal is going to be the most important.

[Wags]

the statistical majority is that most hikers, whether solo or w/ others, don't make it the whole way. so with that in mind, if you all leave seperately you still don't have very good odds of making it. so just go as a group and have fun, if you make it you make it