Only 650 thru hikers this year?

[Tha Wookie]

Now I know that many many people don't register in the book at Amicalola SP, but I have been told by staff at Walasi-Yi that there have been only 650 folks in the books for thru-hiking this year.

I thought that many people would be ready, especially considering the collapse of the economy. Maybe all those jobless people need a year to get ready?

But besides not being a lot more, there seem to be a lot LESS...... (although I don't know the number from last year)

what gives?

[Lone Wolf]

the jobless ones out here are freeloading quite a bit

[kyhipo]

well like my industry building choppers,its been real slow its like hike or bike unless you invested in oil,our heat bill was crazy like most the gov had surcharge of 60 bucks on top of are reg bill plus the storms we had but to be honest people dont have the cash,really enjoyed your west coast web,been to most places you hiked.ky

[Mags]

The overall amount of people who backpack are going down considerably. I am not surprised that thru-hiking numbers are starting to reflect this reality. I predicted that a few years back.

See post three:
http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/show...packing+skurka

[The Solemates]

The overall amount of people who backpack are going down considerably. I am not surprised that thru-hiking numbers are starting to reflect this reality.

really? are there studies showing this?

[Lyle]

really? are there studies showing this?

I think this has been the trend since the late 70's, early 80's.

[Mags]

really? are there studies showing this?

I added the link just before you posted, but yes.

Anecdotally, park officials also report that reservations for backcountry camp sites are going down as well.

http://www.newwest.net/index.php/main/article/8349

The cold reality is that besides having LESS time on our hands to get out and find ourselves in a world of greater electronic distractions, most increasingly-urban Americans find the idea of trudging dozens of miles with a heavy pack toward remote campsights to be utterly unappealing. In a word, backbreaking.

..and that about sums it up.





There may be a temp bump with people looking for cheap activities in the down turned economy, but I think it is a long term trend. Society, as a whole, wants a Disney experience. Backpacking ain't.

(..and I don't think lightweight backpacking is going to "save" backpacking...)

[Pedaling Fool]

I think the large numbers were a result of Bryson's book (I know, not an original theory), and basically I agree with Mags on the whole when it comes to outside activities, esp. hiking.

[Ox97GaMe]

not sure where your source is coming from, but I can tell you that the numbers I am seeing is above that of last year and the year before. Maybe hikers are getting better informed about where hiker feeds are at, but I find that hard to believe, as most of my trail magic events are rather spontaneous. Im feeding about 15% more hikers this year than past years. Hard to believe there are significantly fewer hikers based on that.

[Pootz]

Now I know that many many people don't register in the book at Amicalola SP, but I have been told by staff at Walasi-Yi that there have been only 650 folks in the books for thru-hiking this year.

I thought that many people would be ready, especially considering the collapse of the economy. Maybe all those jobless people need a year to get ready?

But besides not being a lot more, there seem to be a lot LESS...... (although I don't know the number from last year)

what gives?

My thought would be that some people may be unwilling to quit their jobs and go hiking with the economy so bad.

I wonder how many people on average have they had in their "Books" the last few years? Is the number of hikers down or are less people stopping at Walasi-Yi. It will be interesting to see the numbers at Harpers Ferry.

[Blissful]

I know a lot appear to be sectioning this year it seems. We saw all college-aged thrus out there last week, and having fun.

[Tha Wookie]

The overall amount of people who backpack are going down considerably. I am not surprised that thru-hiking numbers are starting to reflect this reality. I predicted that a few years back.

See post three:
http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/show...packing+skurka

I hate to burst the bubble nastrodomos but I have yet to see a peer-reviewed study or one with solid methods that provides evidence that backpacking or hiking on a whole has decreased. Industry studies are notoriously subjective with potential customers usually being the population of interest, which leaves out many people from the sample.

In the only nation-wide study on recreation that properly samples the US population (National Survey on Recreation and the Environment or NSRE for short), conducted by the Forest Service's Research Station in Athens, GA. It found that recreational walking has increased more than twofold up to 2003 and backpacking saw almost a 100% increase, even when compared to early 80's data. I doubt that less people are hiking, but they might be hiking more places (the AT is old hat for a lot of people and they are seeking more "out there" experiences, that no doubt maintain less data on their use).

Many park numbers have gone down in the past decade, but not because there are actually less users. It's because they used inadequate methods that systematically counted more than what was actually coming (like the practice of counting a visitor upon arrival AND departure, which doubles the figure in one swoop). The NSRE was created to provide a single methodology for areas since most data didn't synch and it was impossible to compare or aggregate with all the inconsistencies.

So maybe less people are simply avoiding Amicalola. i know I didn't sign it on my thru. Maybe more people are simply going straight to Springer, because sites like this tell you how to do it when before it was more mysterious.

I do know one thing for certain. Until there is a survey that adequately counts on the AT and other trails, all we do for now is speculate. Which is fun.

[Tha Wookie]

My thought would be that some people may be unwilling to quit their jobs and go hiking with the economy so bad.

I wonder how many people on average have they had in their "Books" the last few years? Is the number of hikers down or are less people stopping at Walasi-Yi. It will be interesting to see the numbers at Harpers Ferry.

That's interesting. Sure, they aren't sure if there will be jobs when they get back so it's harder to risk it with everyone looking to cut the fat.

The number given from the Walasi-Yi guys weren't from the store. They were from the book at Amicalola, the first register if you do the approach trail. Annual numbers are often taken from there and then compared to the Harper's Ferry numbers.

[superman]

I think there was a spike of hikers in 2000 when I hiked. I'm planning on re-hiking the AT in 2010 so you can anticipate another spike. Why, because I'm so damn entertaining that apparently people come from far and wide just to hike with me.

[neighbor dave]

I think there was a spike of hikers in 2000 when I hiked. I'm planning on re-hiking the AT in 2010 so you can anticipate another spike. Why, because I'm so damn entertaining that apparently people come from far and wide just to hike with me.

is Lois going too?

[Mags]

Lies. Damn Lies and statistics.


Wook, just go to any outdoor store, pick up an outdoor magazine and go to any park.

The ads in outdoor magazines are aimed at people doing done-in-a-day activities. If there were more backpackers, there would be more ads for backcountry use. Advertisers ain't stupid...they sell schwag people want. Likewise with retailers.


People are backpacking less. Simply put. (Notice I said BACKPACKING. Day hiking has bumped up a bit for casual users.. Again, going with the trend for "done in a day activities".)


I'll counter your lies, damn lies and statistics with my own lies, damn lies and statistics:

""Camping is one of those areas that is a concern to us," said Butch Street, a statistician for the National Park Service who compiles the figures each year. "That is definitely going down. "

http://www.denverpost.com/search/ci_4391721

So the National Park Service disagrees with you.

(and so on : http://www.google.com/search?q=decli...ient=firefox-a)



My research and gut instinct (based on what I've seen with my own two eyes, the way society is heading, etc.) tell me backcountry use is down.

I suspect that is also why the NPS is now allowing MTBs on a case-by-case basis. Less backcountry users are up in arms about it..but more people mountain bike.

I'll say it again: Backcountry use is going down (backpacking, mutliday climbing, camping) , front country activities have been blossoming. (MTBiking, trail running, hiking, climbing, etc.)


Rather than continue the pissing contest, let us just say we have different views.

[Lone Wolf]

Now I know that many many people don't register in the book at Amicalola SP, but I have been told by staff at Walasi-Yi that there have been only 650 folks in the books for thru-hiking this year.

I thought that many people would be ready, especially considering the collapse of the economy. Maybe all those jobless people need a year to get ready?

But besides not being a lot more, there seem to be a lot LESS...... (although I don't know the number from last year)

what gives?

cool. less hippies i gotta kick when they come thru town

[traildust]

I hate to burst the bubble nastrodomos but I have yet to see a peer-reviewed study or one with solid methods that provides evidence that backpacking or hiking on a whole has decreased. Industry studies are notoriously subjective with potential customers usually being the population of interest, which leaves out many people from the sample.

In the only nation-wide study on recreation that properly samples the US population (National Survey on Recreation and the Environment or NSRE for short), conducted by the Forest Service's Research Station in Athens, GA. It found that recreational walking has increased more than twofold up to 2003 and backpacking saw almost a 100% increase, even when compared to early 80's data. I doubt that less people are hiking, but they might be hiking more places (the AT is old hat for a lot of people and they are seeking more "out there" experiences, that no doubt maintain less data on their use).

Many park numbers have gone down in the past decade, but not because there are actually less users. It's because they used inadequate methods that systematically counted more than what was actually coming (like the practice of counting a visitor upon arrival AND departure, which doubles the figure in one swoop). The NSRE was created to provide a single methodology for areas since most data didn't synch and it was impossible to compare or aggregate with all the inconsistencies.

So maybe less people are simply avoiding Amicalola. i know I didn't sign it on my thru. Maybe more people are simply going straight to Springer, because sites like this tell you how to do it when before it was more mysterious.

I do know one thing for certain. Until there is a survey that adequately counts on the AT and other trails, all we do for now is speculate. Which is fun.

Yeh! What he said. Besides is less a bad thing for the A.T. Many other trails across the nation - long trails and short are seeing a surge. The Red River Gorge in Ky and the trails that go through there are seeing an increase.

[RITBlake]

My thought would be that some people may be unwilling to quit their jobs and go hiking with the economy so bad.

I fit this profile 100%

[scope]

The ads in outdoor magazines are aimed at people doing done-in-a-day activities. If there were more backpackers, there would be more ads for backcountry use. Advertisers ain't stupid...they sell schwag people want. Likewise with retailers.

I see lots of ads for tents. That's not a done-in-a-day item. Granted, I don't see lots of ads for backpacks, but I've got to wonder about all those tent ads with declining campers and backpackers.

Not saying I disagree with you necessarily, but I do find your logic a bit simplistic. I'd place my bet closer to Wook's logic, that the market is growing, maybe slowly, but morphing in a way where the industry standards of weights and measures are slow to adapt.