Are there fewer thruhikers every year?

[dessertrat]

Maybe I misread the statistics over at the ATC's website, but looking at their charts, it looks like there are fewer thru-hikers yearly since 2001, though with a higher completion percentage. Is this an accurate perception?

I know that decade by decade, the number of hikers has gone up every decade, it just looks like it is slumping from 2001 onward. Or am I reading the statistics wrong?

If I am right, how to explain? And if I'm looking at the numbers wrong, please correct me.

[dessertrat]

This is the page I'm referring to.

http://www.appalachiantrail.org/site...Statistics.htm

[Pedaling Fool]

The numbers will go back up after the movie.

[dessertrat]

I see there's a news article about it, too. About ten percent decline each year over the last few. http://www.knoxnews.com/news/2007/Ma...to-at146s-end/

But how to explain it, really?

[rafe]

I see there's a news article about it, too. About ten percent decline each year over the last few. http://www.knoxnews.com/news/2007/Ma...to-at146s-end/

But how to explain it, really?

They're cyber-hiking instead.

[Creek Dancer]

What's also interesting is that the completion rate has gone up every year since 2001.

[Deadeye]

I bet the numbers will start to climb again soon as the baby boomers retire (2022 for me!)

[Lyle]

I'd assume (possibly with the expected consequences) that the reason the completion rate is increasing is because of the internet. Through Trailplace, Whiteblaze, AT_list, Trailjournals, and other sites a lot of hikers have a much better idea what they are getting into, so either don't start or are better prepared to finish.

I was also going to say because of the lighter packs today, but thought better of it. It was easy enough with 40 lbs. Just changing to an average of 30 lbs wouldn't make much difference. As common knowlege tells us, equipment won't make or break a hike, at least if it's within reason.

Not sure about why fewer are attempting other than the general tend towards couch potatoism. I agree it will probably increase again when more of the baby boomers retire, I know I can't wait!

[Jack Tarlin]

Hikers are better informed and better prepared and are indeed carrying lighter loads.

But in addition to this, there are a lot more facilities to make things easier for hikers, especially in the critical first few weeks of the trip. In the old days, it wasn't unusual for hikers to frequently go 9 to 12 days between towns or major re-supply points; they spent more time in the woods, less time in towns, and less time under real roofs. Today's hikers can get well into Virginia without being out more than four or five straight days......there are a lot more hostels, cheap motel stops, etc. It makes it a lot easier for today's hikers, both phyically and mentally; they spend more time inside; they get better rest; they eat lots better. And hikers that last six or seven weeks, i.e. those that stick it out til Virginia, have a greatly improved chance of completing their hikes. In short, one of the main reasons we're seeing more completed hikes is that fewer people drop out early, for any number of reasons. When fewer folks drop out early, it means there will be more at the end of the year who make it all the way.

[Mags]

Not sure about why fewer are attempting other than the general tend towards couch potatoism. I agree it will probably increase again when more of the baby boomers retire, I know I can't wait!

Backpacking and camping has also declined as a whole.

Check 'er out:
http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/show...t=skurka+pct-l

[SGT Rock]

I think it is like hitting home runs. If you swing a lot, you may hit more, but you will greatly increase your strike outs.

So if you transfer that to thru-hiking. If more people take a shot at it, you will get more completions, but you will probably get a great deal more strike outs.

[cowboy nichols]

Just a thought- There is more information about many other trails and a lot of hikers , myself included are exploring other trails which are not as well reported as the A T.


Hikeing 'Til -----

[Magic Man]

I was told recently that Bill Bryson's book caused the extreme spike (1999 or 2000?)
and these numbers have just slowly returned to a more norm.

[rumbler]

Prior to hiking in 2003 I had never been out longer than 6 days. If it were not for the invaluable information provided by Whiteblaze and the guidebooks my hike would have been VASTLY more difficult.

My gear was poked over by Whiteblaze, my schedule was determined by guidebooks and Jack's ever-helpful resupply guide, and my expectations were suitably prepared for the difficulties of a long hike that no weeklong escape would prepare you for.

The informational resources coupled with more and more creature comforts being more and more accessible to the trail have no doubt been of tremendous benefit to hikers efforts of completing a thruhike.

Not really sure why the numbers attempting have declined though.

[SGT Rock]

Prior to hiking in 2003 I had never been out longer than 6 days. If it were not for the invaluable information provided by Whiteblaze and the guidebooks my hike would have been VASTLY more difficult.

My gear was poked over by Whiteblaze, my schedule was determined by guidebooks and Jack's ever-helpful resupply guide, and my expectations were suitably prepared for the difficulties of a long hike that no weeklong escape would prepare you for.

The informational resources coupled with more and more creature comforts being more and more accessible to the trail have no doubt been of tremendous benefit to hikers efforts of completing a thruhike.

Not really sure why the numbers attempting have declined though.

Maybe WhiteBlaze also scares off people.

[CoyoteWhips]

Are stores like REI experiencing a decline in sales of backpacks?

[SGT Rock]

They keep opening new ones.

[Creek Dancer]

Not sure I understand your point. If I understand the ATC stats correctly, fewer people are taking a shot at thru-hiking, yet the rate of completion has increased.

I think it is like hitting home runs. If you swing a lot, you may hit more, but you will greatly increase your strike outs.

So if you transfer that to thru-hiking. If more people take a shot at it, you will get more completions, but you will probably get a great deal more strike outs.

[rafe]

They keep opening new [REI stores].

Maybe there's an SUV analogy here, Rock.

Some folks go to REI to buy bright-colored clothing with big logos so that they can pretend to be hardy, sch!t-kicking outdoorsy types. When, in fact, they're far more likely to be wearing those clothes to the mall and back.

It's call conspicuous consumption.

[SGT Rock]

Not sure I understand your point. If I understand the ATC stats correctly, fewer people are taking a shot at thru-hiking, yet the rate of completion has increased.

The raw number of people completing the trail has decreased. In 2000 it was 633, last year it was only 488. It is probably going to be even less next year. So the numbers of home runs has gone down.

The number of people starting has also gone down, but by a bigger number. 2,375 starters in 2001, 1150 last year, so the number of attempts at bat has also gone down.

In baseball, most of the home run kings also have some really high strike out rates. Because when you are swinging hard to make the homer, you also swing a lot.

So, if less people are attempting (swining the bat) it works out like baseball that even though there are less home runs total, there is a higher completion percentage.