Ivan the Terrible

[steve hiker]

Frances wimped out on us but Ivan means business. Catagory 4 and soon a 5, heading straight to Florida.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES SUGGEST THAT IVAN
CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND IS NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
WITH MAXIMUM WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 115 KT (132 MPH). CONVECTION IS REMARKABLY STRONG IN THE CORE REGION WITH PEAK CLOUD TOPS APPROACHING -80 DEG C. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS STRONG IN ALL QUADRANTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS WNW...285/18. ALL FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST A
SIMILAR TRACK FOR IVAN OVER THE NEXT 96 HOURS. A STRONG DEEP-LAYER
ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE,
BRINGING IVAN INTO THE VICINITY OF BARBADOS IN 36 HOURS. FOR THE
120 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD A STRONG CONSENSUS REMAINS IN THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS. AFTER 72 HOURS THE FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... (TO FLORIDA) NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

IVAN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DEEPENING OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.
BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE BRING IVAN UP TO 125 KT (144 MPH) AT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSITY INDEX SUGGESTS THAT THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION PHASE WILL CONTINUE AS THE PROBABILITY FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS NEARLY NINE TIMES THE SAMPLE MEAN. GIVEN THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION TREND AND THE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...IVAN IS FORECAST TO REACH 130 KT (150 MPH - KNOCKING ON CAT. 5) IN 12 HOURS. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY AFTER THAT
TIME.

[Nightwalker]

Frances wimped out on us but Ivan means business.

The Frances 3-day still looks nasty for those of us in the SE US.

[ga>me>ak]

One mean nasty storm. Measured upper winds( 2-300 ft above sea level) at 230-250 MPH today. If it stills supposed to hit here with the forcast on Sat night, I'm gettin the @!&$$(*&^@#$ outta here

[steve hiker]

I don't like the way this cane is acting. Go to Florida, Ivan, you'll like the beaches better there.

[sgtjinx]

You wished DOOM on Florida, but it will come back to you two fold!!!!

To bad, so sad

Pop was that your head

Frances wimped out on us but Ivan means business. Catagory 4 and soon a 5, heading straight to Florida.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES SUGGEST THAT IVAN
CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND IS NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE
WITH MAXIMUM WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 115 KT (132 MPH). CONVECTION IS REMARKABLY STRONG IN THE CORE REGION WITH PEAK CLOUD TOPS APPROACHING -80 DEG C. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS STRONG IN ALL QUADRANTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS WNW...285/18. ALL FORECAST MODELS SUGGEST A
SIMILAR TRACK FOR IVAN OVER THE NEXT 96 HOURS. A STRONG DEEP-LAYER
ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE,
BRINGING IVAN INTO THE VICINITY OF BARBADOS IN 36 HOURS. FOR THE
120 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD A STRONG CONSENSUS REMAINS IN THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS. AFTER 72 HOURS THE FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... (TO FLORIDA) NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

IVAN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DEEPENING OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.
BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE BRING IVAN UP TO 125 KT (144 MPH) AT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSITY INDEX SUGGESTS THAT THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION PHASE WILL CONTINUE AS THE PROBABILITY FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS NEARLY NINE TIMES THE SAMPLE MEAN. GIVEN THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION TREND AND THE EXTREMELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...IVAN IS FORECAST TO REACH 130 KT (150 MPH - KNOCKING ON CAT. 5) IN 12 HOURS. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY AFTER THAT
TIME.

[steve hiker]

You wished DOOM on Florida, but it will come back to you two fold!!!!

To bad, so sad

Pop was that your head

I got news for you sgtjinx, Florida is jinxed and if Ivan does head my way, I'm going to bump it east to Florida. Y'all have been waiting for another Andrew, and were jealous of Camille, so I'll make sure it comes your way.

[sgtjinx]

I got news for you sgtjinx, Florida is jinxed and if Ivan does head my way, I'm going to bump it east to Florida. Y'all have been waiting for another Andrew, and were jealous of Camille, so I'll make sure it comes your way.

Hurricane Camille was a bitch that is for sure. I hope no one ever goes through a bitch like her.

I don't hope doom on anybody!!! Even a clown like you

[smokymtnsteve]

as long as disney world survives

[steve hiker]

Hurricane Camille was a bitch that is for sure. I hope no one ever goes through a bitch like her. I don't hope doom on anybody!!! Even a clown like you

Well, believe it or not, most of what I say is in jest. Hurricanes do get me excited, though.

Right now Ivan is heading our way, but looks to pass to the east and hit MS/AL. I'd hate to be in Mobile Bay.

I'm inland and on high ground (50 feet is high ground in La.), so won't get offed by the storm surge even it it makes a direct hit on La. This is a bad one though, and those people in Miss. always seem to get it.

You're right about Camille, which most people don't remember. It was the second most powerful hurricane ever to hit the U.S. (worst was a 1935 storm), much more powerful than Andrew, as seen in this very good link:

http://www.geocities.com/hurricanene...anecamille.htm





HURRICANE CAMILLE- August 17, 1969.

WINDS: 190 mph - 220
PRESSURE: 909 Mb./26.84 inches.
STORM - SURGE: 22 - 25 feet above Mean Tide.

The National Hurricane Center estimates Camille had sustained winds of 190 mph with gusts in the 210 - 220 mph range. The lowest barometric pressure recorded on land in Camille was 909 mb (26.85) at Bay St. Louis.


This is the second lowest barometric pressure ever measured in the United States. Only the 1935 Hurricane produced a lower pressure in the middle Keys of 892 Mb (26.35). Several reports of pressure under 915 Mb (27.00), were reported by survivors near the eye.

Hurricane Camille produced the highest hurricane tidal surge ever recorded in the United States. According to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Mobile District 1970), a still-water, high water mark, of 22.6 feet above mean tide, was measured inside the VFW Clubhouse building in Pass Christian, Mississippi. Additionally, debris drift was found 25 feet above mean sea level in the vicinity of East Beach Blvd.

[steve hiker]

Now this is a hurry-cane. Looka the shape of that Camille, ain't she a beauty?

http://www.geocities.com/hurricanene/camille.jpg

[sgtjinx]

Beauty in the eye of madness.

[Jersey Bob]

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[smokymtnsteve]

Hurricanes are no laughing matter but this gave me a chuckle. It's on a sign in front of a church:

Hurricane prayer service today.

The sermon this morning: "Jesus Walks on Water."
The sermon tonight: "Searching for Jesus"

PLEASE STAND FOR THE GOSPEL OF ABBEY!

"Jesus don't walk on water no more; his feet leak."

THANKS BE TO ABBEY!

[squirrel bait]

Ya'all be careful down there, here Ivan comes. Watch the water, it kills more than anything else. Help when ya can and be safe, ya can't help if your hurt. Our prayers are with ya.

[Jersey Bob]

at least 10 characters

[Nightwalker]

THANKS BE TO ABBEY!

Yo Steve, you don't have to do that crap when ya ain't bein' baited!

[steve hiker]

Once again, Ivan steered clear of La. after heading right for us. We got maybe 40 mph winds and not a drop of rain. Like Camille and so many others, it jogged east just as it touched the mouth of the Mississippi, and went elsewhere. Those folks in the Mobile and Pensacola areas must have some real cleaning up to do. (Told you I'd send it to FL Sgtjinx!!! )

One thing's for sure, we won't have any problem finding water on the AT this fall. Just checked the SE radar, and the whole southern Appalachian area is being deluged with rain. Will be quite a few blowdowns to climb over and detour around for awhile also, that's for sure.

[Lone Wolf]

It's just starting to sprinkle here in Damascus.

[MOWGLI]

It's just starting to sprinkle here in Damascus.

Some heavy rain bands are about to hit Chattanooga. About an hour ago a utility pole 3 houses down snapped when a tree fell on the wires miid-span. Everyone to my left is out of power. We're still rockin' & rollin' with the lights, but I don't know for how long..

[Lone Wolf]

Oh boy. The slightest wind around here knocks the power out.