AT success rate inflated by comforts

[Skeemer]

hungryhowie wrote:
If you want to read about the experience, Trailjournals stores the writings of thousands of thruhikers on the AT alone. Much more than the comforts available to hikers on the trail, I think it is these things that have increased the success rate for thruhikers the most.

Wish I'd thought of that. I followed 8 hikers in '02 on Trailjournals and copied much of their gear. Also, followed a guy my age which helped me in projecting the miles I could do each day.

I would like to see lobster awswer wacocelt's post.

[wacocelt]

If he does it will be about Christopher Walken!

[Jack Tarlin]

The guy who wrote the old planning guide was named WHALEN.

Christopher Walken is an extraordinarily accomplished actor, but he hasn't thru-hiked, unless Howie is better informed on this than I am.

[Lone Wolf]

Walken ruled in "The Deer Hunter".

[bearbait2k4]

The trails were steeper, there are more comforts, more trail angels, bla bla bla.

It really does sound like a condescending tone, so it doesn't surprise me that you'd get defensive posts from people who have done this.

I can't imagine anyone saying that the AT is easy, or any type of living in the wilderness for 5-6 months is easy, for that matter. You can condition your body to almost anything....the mind is something else. You can be in great physical shape, but of weak mind, and that will keep you from completing the trail. You can also miss a lot of the trail magic by not hitting roads on weekends, etc. It's not like it's out there, 24/7. A lot of people, still, don't opt for towns, meeting up with friends, or using cell phones. So, I guess you'd have to do a case-by-case study of every completed thru-hiker to see what their ammenities were along the trail before you started assuming what they did or used.

There are easier parts, and more difficult parts as well. The trail length increases every year. The weather gets more unpredictable with every passing year. As with snowflakes, there are never any two hikes that are alike.

I'm sure there are common comforts we have now that didn't exist 10 years ago. I'm also sure that there were also common comforts that existed 10 years ago that weren't present 20, 30, and 40 years ago. There is, however, always a new conflict to arise when one is taken away. I'm sure, for instance, that those who hiked 3, 5, 10 or even decades ago saw more living trees and more pristine wilderness at the end of the day than we currently do. That's one of the reasons you are out there, and to get on the ridges in the Smokies for a few days, and to see all the trees dying is kind of a downer.

So, don't worry, the homeostasis of the trail almost always stays the same.

[wacocelt]

The guy who wrote the old planning guide was named WHALEN.

Thanks for clearing that up Jack, now let's get back to boiling lobster.

Do you think Attroll would let us vote to open a specific group for our favorite trolls? That way when they open or flood a thread we could just move it over there to get our daily dose of nonsense?

[Skeemer]

Should have won an Oscar for "The Deer Hunter"

[Lone Wolf]

HOMEOSTASIS. Had to look that one up. I think the AT is easy.

[Jack Tarlin]

Skeemer said Walken should have won an Oscar for "The Deer Hunter."

Well, he did. His performance in that film won Best Supporting Actor of the year, which if memory serves, was in 1978.

Back to the subject, re. planning guides. Whalen's book is OK, but somewhat out of date. Dan Bruce's planning guide was better, but is impossible to find.

With any luck, there'll be a new, comprehensive planning guide for planning and preparing an A.T. thru-hike coming out by early 2006.

The author is someone I know rather well, and he finally seems to have gotten things together in terms of wrtiting this book.

Will keep you all informed on this as things progress.

[Footslogger]

HOMEOSTASIS. Had to look that one up. I think the AT is easy.

===========================
Yeah ...the AT is a lot like my time in the military (1968 - 1971). After it was all over it seemed a lot easier !!

This is not the right time to spew about the relative difficulty of the AT. Table this thread and resurrect it in the middle of next year's hiking season.

'Slogger
AT 2003

[grrickar]

I'd venture to guess that more people finish now days because more people are hiking the AT.

[rocket04]

I'd venture to guess that more people finish now days because more people are hiking the AT.

I think people are alluding to the fact that percentage-wise, more people are succeeding. Which, of course, in no way diminishes the accomplishment.

[tribes]

All of the modern comforts in the world(ie. cellphones, angels, hostels) have not changed this fact. Statistics still show that one is far more likely to fail in hiking the entire trail then they are to succeed. 2100+ miles is still alot of friggin' miles and nobody should be here on this site attempting to discount anyone's accomplishments on the trail. Whether they hiked in 73' or 04' should not be an issue. Once you complete the trail you are in that club forever. I cannot wait to become a member. "That's all I have to say about that..."

TRI BES 05'

ps: Is it April one yet????

[Peaks]

1. oodles of hostels
2. trail magic
3. friends and family meeting up with hikers
4. slackpacking
5. cell phones

I wonder how low the success rate would be for thru-hikes if not for the increasingly more common instances of trail help?

I'm not talking about light-weight gear which helps the physical side of hiking which obviously carries over to the mental side. I'm referring to the opportunities for spirit raising things like a soft bed, a call to a loved one from a mountain top, a meal at a road crossing, etc.

There is no way to answer this. The AT is the way the AT is. Everyone who does the AT does it their own way. Some slackpack, some don't. Some carry cell phones, some don't. So forth. It's called hike your own hike.

[grrickar]

At the end of it all, the "thru" still hiked all those miles, in adverse weather, and slept in tents and shelters more times in 6 months than most people do in a lifetime. Personally I'd consider it an accomplishment regardless of how many times the hiker stayed in hotels, hostels, accepted trail magic, etc.

[Skyline]

As time goes on, reported completions, and more importantly the percentage of reported completions vs. those that began in a given year, has inched upwards. Many reasons, not just one or two.

One that hasn't been mentioned here is that in any given year a person who reported a finally-completed multi-year section hike is included in that year's total. This must have some effect on the skewing of the percentages. For example, I hiked every year from '96 thru '03, except one, and they count me as part of the Class of '03. But I was NOT in the group that left Springer (or Katahdin) that year.

It was a great hike anyway.

[lobster]

Who said the trail was "easy"? It is just "easier" with all the amenities. I would agree that these same amenities possibly cause some hikers to lose focus and not finish the trail, but I would guess that more people stay because of them than are lost.

The trail wasn't as long when Earl hiked originally and he had a lot of road walking so I can see him saying it was more difficult the last time. Also, being older might have caused the trail to seem that way.

[Frosty]

Damn, I was sure Old Fhart was going to say it was harder back when we couldn't afford feet.

You had FEET? And I'll bet you had hands, too, you cheater. We had to pull ourselves along with our eyelashes.

[lobster]

Wacocelt,

What did you want to know?

[Footslogger]

Is this thread about the relative ease of hiking the AT from END TO END ??

Something to ponder in looking back over some of the posts ....

'Slogger
AT 2003