AT success rate inflated by comforts

[lobster]

1. oodles of hostels
2. trail magic
3. friends and family meeting up with hikers
4. slackpacking
5. cell phones

I wonder how low the success rate would be for thru-hikes if not for the increasingly more common instances of trail help?

I'm not talking about light-weight gear which helps the physical side of hiking which obviously carries over to the mental side. I'm referring to the opportunities for spirit raising things like a soft bed, a call to a loved one from a mountain top, a meal at a road crossing, etc.

[Lion King]

Check CDT stats.

[dharmabum86]

Where would someone find the number of thru-hikes ever completed on the AT and where would you find the CDT stats at? It's probably right under my nose

[Blue Jay]

Yes, back in my day we walked backwards on broken glass the whole way with an angry wolverine in our packs. Those damn slackers today.

[A-Train]

Lobster:

This is not the first time you have posted this thread idea and you just recently inquired about finding an online list of people so that you could find all those who didn't walk the whole trail. What is your deal? Are you that bored with life that you have to knock the accomplishments of men and women who had the guile to go plan a long walk, executed it and had a wonderful time in the process?

What are you trying to accomplish, i'm really interested. Have you walked the whole AT? What is the fascination? Did you hike every inch of the trail on your hands and knees, blind, with 200 lbs on your back?

Yes there are tons of "thru-hikers" who didn't walk the whole trail. Yes more hostels are up than ten yrs ago and there are more trail angels. But you also still have to walk up and down hills, that certainly hasn't changed.

Anyway, I hope you respond, but I won't wait around

[steve hiker]

I like the thread. Trail angels at every road crossing has got to suck.

[Frosty]

Yes, back in my day we walked backwards on broken glass the whole way with an angry wolverine in our packs. Those damn slackers today.

Didn't it snow every day back then, except for a week or so with a hurricane and/or tornadoes, and or course a straight month of 100+ degree temps and all the water sources dried up? I remember those days. The mountains were steeper, too, and taller, if I recall.

[lobster]

It's funny how folks get defensive if they think somebody is belittling their accomplishments. They often couch their comments in humor.

Instead of getting defensive, why not broach the subject of whether the public's perception of the AT may change and whether this may have negative repercussions for the trail, such as funding, etc.

By the way, the trails were steeper! Switchbacking, especially in the Nantahalas, has made things easier. It probably evens out with trails being taken off roads and the length of trail increased.

[Blue Jay]

Instead of getting defensive, why not broach the subject of whether the public's perception of the AT may change and whether this may have negative repercussions for the trail, such as funding, etc.

By the way, the trails were steeper! Switchbacking, especially in the Nantahalas, has made things easier. It probably evens out with trails being taken off roads and the length of trail increased.

Defensive about what? Don't you have to make some logical statement that has some importance to me so I can be defensive about it. I like being defensive, but you have to work with me here. As for the public's perception of the AT, they don't have one. Most people have no idea the AT exists. As for funding, are you from another planet? The ATC has no money and you won't even buy a subscription to their publication so you can make fun of thruhikers. You are correct about the Nantahalas, you used to have to tie a rope to your belt and pull yourself up the hill.

[bearbait2k4]

The trails were steeper, there are more comforts, more trail angels, bla bla bla.

It really does sound like a condescending tone, so it doesn't surprise me that you'd get defensive posts from people who have done this.

I can't imagine anyone saying that the AT is easy, or any type of living in the wilderness for 5-6 months is easy, for that matter. You can condition your body to almost anything....the mind is something else. You can be in great physical shape, but of weak mind, and that will keep you from completing the trail. You can also miss a lot of the trail magic by not hitting roads on weekends, etc. It's not like it's out there, 24/7. A lot of people, still, don't opt for towns, meeting up with friends, or using cell phones. So, I guess you'd have to do a case-by-case study of every completed thru-hiker to see what their ammenities were along the trail before you started assuming what they did or used.

There are easier parts, and more difficult parts as well. The trail length increases every year. The weather gets more unpredictable with every passing year. As with snowflakes, there are never any two hikes that are alike.

I'm sure there are common comforts we have now that didn't exist 10 years ago. I'm also sure that there were also common comforts that existed 10 years ago that weren't present 20, 30, and 40 years ago. There is, however, always a new conflict to arise when one is taken away. I'm sure, for instance, that those who hiked 3, 5, 10 or even decades ago saw more living trees and more pristine wilderness at the end of the day than we currently do. That's one of the reasons you are out there, and to get on the ridges in the Smokies for a few days, and to see all the trees dying is kind of a downer.

So, don't worry, the homeostasis of the trail almost always stays the same.

[MOWGLI]

By the way, the trails were steeper! Switchbacking, especially in the Nantahalas, has made things easier. It probably evens out with trails being taken off roads and the length of trail increased.

Switchbacks are not installed to make the trail easier. They are installed to make trails sustainable, thereby reducing maintenance needs. Ever notice how badly eroded the trails are in New England? That's not a shot at the MATC and AMC. They do great work with their volunteers.

Fall line trails tend to erode - often quickly and badly. I saw half of Carter Dome run down the AT into the pond at Carter Notch in 2000. It seemed that way anyway. I sat for 20 minutes and watched this giant plume of mud grow in the pond. It was actually quite disturbing.

[Blue Jay]

Didn't it snow every day back then, except for a week or so with a hurricane and/or tornadoes, and or course a straight month of 100+ degree temps and all the water sources dried up? I remember those days. The mountains were steeper, too, and taller, if I recall.

No, it snowed DURING the tornados and the only thing we had to drink was dirt. We couldn't afford mountains, we had to climb each other.

[The Old Fhart]

I personally think that the toughest thing to climb is what Blue Jay and Frosty are piling up. I'm really enjoying reading this thread, keep up the good work, guys. Your replies are much more meaningful than the original question.

Lobster's using the word "inflated" seems to imply that the number or percentage of hikers finishing falls into the same category that Frosty and Blue Jay have so eloquently described- I disagree that this has changed. I would say that the success rate might be slightly higher today than in the past because of better equipment and preparation but there are many more people starting.

I think that the success rate might dip slightly once Lobster institutes his mandatory drug testing of thru-hikers or having to log in at checkpoints. As to his statement:

Instead of getting defensive, why not broach the subject of whether the public's perception of the AT may change and whether this may have negative repercussions for the trail, such as funding, etc.

the outside world’s opinion of hikers has actually improved as more stories about the A.T. appear in newspapers and on TV. When I first set foot on the trail people thought all thru-hikers were bums, now it is down to 50%.

[Spirit Walker]

Actually the success rate for the PCT and CDT are close to 50%. For the PCT it depends largely on snow conditions - fewer complete the trail in an El Nino year, for example. On the CDT snow and fires force a lot of folks off the trail at one point or another and as Lynne Weldon said, "Bad luck seems to happen to a lot of CDT hikers." The big difference in completion rates is that AT hikers often have no experience before they start the trail. Because of the shelter system and frequent road crossings they assume that it is easier than it in fact is. Because they have generally never done any real backpacking, when faced with several days of rain or eight hours a day of hiking for day after day after day, they soon give up. Western hikers are more likely to have prior experience before starting on one of the long trails, especially on the CDT. They have done at least a few two week hikes, or longer. Many of the PCT hikers we saw give up and go home in the first few weeks were complete neophytes who had no idea what they were getting into. Same as the AT.

Having hostels and cell phones and radios and family visits changes the character of your hike, but they don't really make it easier on a day to day basis. You still have to walk 2100 or 2400 or 2700 miles in all kinds of weather. You still carry yourself up and down those mountains. Without shelters there would be fewer hikers out there, because of the AT's constant rain, but they would still be there. Try hiking out west sometime - few if any shelters, and the trails are so packed you have to get a permit to backpack, and in some places even to dayhike.

[rickb]

I am thinking a part of why more people complete the AT than in the past is that the really believe that they can.

Its so dramatic as what happened after Roger Banister broke the 4 minute mile, but since I am prone to hyperbole when it comes to the Trail....

The internet, books and media and personal example shown by so many different sorts of people have all helped with that.

Rick B

[lobster]

Wacocelt,

1. I didn't send in for a certificate. That was a joke.

2. I have yellow-blazed and blue-blazed, sometimes making things easier and sometimes making things tougher. Hitched and walked to Gettysburg and walked around the battlefield, long uphill walk(couldn't get ride) out of Buena Vista to get back to the trail, hitch and walk into Washington DC for the 4th of July, yellow-blaze and then walk up the expert ski trails on Killington to get back to trail, hiked peaks of Otter on a day off, etc. Oh, and also the Creeper out of Damascus.

3. It is a disturbing trend when more and more folks try to devise ways to make their hikes easier. Slackpacking, etc..... I am of the opinion that the more physical or mental pain, the more gain! Just my experienced opinion! If I was a self-acclaimed purist, I would assume I would be told to HMOH. If I had little AT experience, I could be told that I shouldn't judge without doing. I think I am in a position to state an opinion.

4. I love "hiker trash", but if everybody becomes "hiker trash", what will be the notoriety(wrong word?) in it? Note, "hiker trash" can also be purists!

[Blue Jay]

Note, "hiker trash" can also be purists!

Only if they use super glue where the sun rarely shines. This could happen but it would be accidental.

[wacocelt]

I appreciate your candid and as i predicted 'candy coated' reply, yet would like to point out that you have yet again completely avoided my question about why you require the lists of completed Thru-Hikers or any other information. Regardless of what people do to make thier hikes/lives easier, it still doesn't change the fact that they have taken a very sizable amount of thier lives to spend time away from friends, family and the creature comforts offered by not being on or near the trail in the first place, to experience an adventure in the woods.
It's great that you've endured some hardships on the trail, so have the same people who have slack-packed, yellow-blazed or used hiking poles with cellphones hanging from them. I find it rather redundant that you continually pick at the accomplishments of others because they happened to want a bit of comfort mixed in with thier misery.
It seems to me that you would prefer the AT to be a Trail of Tears or Batan Death March.

I will begin my 2005 Thru-Hike attempt January 1st. I'm sure I'll be experienecing more than enough cold weather and bad days to give you wood for a month, so feel free to use the link in my signature and email your complaints and insults about my days at hostels and meals in restaurants which I will be posting about. Perhaps I'll even slack-pack a time or three and REALLY make your day.

I have tried my best to be civil, but I must give in and say that you sir are an ********.

[Lone Wolf]

I'm gonna slack waco the very first day!

[Nightwalker]

Actually the success rate for the PCT and CDT are close to 50%.

Many people don't realize this, but in elevation change per mile, the AT is the steepest of the Triple Crown. Resupply for the CDT is most difficult, however.

There are more factors that go into these things than simple stats. On my most recent long-ish hike, I went five days between seeing another human. By the fifth day, I was talking to myself, out loud, in two different voices, occasionally with accents. I tended to lean towards Scottish, working-class English, and Australian. Was that insane? I don't think so. I didn't get lonely. It was a very good coping mechanism. I laughed a lot. I didn't think those voices were real, and the Scottish guy kept harassing me up the river gorges. It was actually kind of fun.

Actually, I guess OB could chirp in on the insane/inane part, but it worked for me--and we all do whatever it takes. All I know is that I was sad when I came to the end of the trail.

Frank/Nightwalker