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  1. #1
    Registered User travisap's Avatar
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    Default Average Length for a NOBO thru Hike

    What is the average length to complete a NOBO thru hike, starting May 14th for two 22-year old males, in great physical shape (running/biking/swimming) but not the best hiking shape.

  2. #2
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    5 months........

  3. #3

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    Quote Originally Posted by Lone Wolf View Post
    5 months........
    Agree. Unless, of course, you come across two 22 year old females in great shape and then all bets are off.

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    4eyedbuzzard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by max patch View Post
    Agree. Unless, of course, you come across two 22 year old females in great shape and then all bets are off.
    That's how you get to be a lifetime section hiker.
    I was self employed once, but it proved too stressful. My boss was a jerk and my employee was a slacker - I didn't know whether to quit or fire myself.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lone Wolf View Post
    5 months........
    Wrong. The average is years. You will start alone in very hot weather and will most likely drop out.

    If you assume that you are not average, I think a good target is 4 months, 4 days, plus zero days.

    So, 5 months is just a little conservative.
    Rambler

  6. #6
    Registered User Pommes's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 4eyedbuzzard View Post
    That's how you get to be a lifetime section hiker.

    Or an STD.

  7. #7
    Registered User slugger's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by travisap View Post
    What is the average length to complete a NOBO thru hike, starting May 14th for two 22-year old males, in great physical shape (running/biking/swimming) but not the best hiking shape.

    The average length is the same nobo or sobo. I think this year it's 2181 miles.

    21.1% Done

  8. #8
    Hiker bigcranky's Avatar
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    Depends on which average you want. The mode (most common) would probably be 30 miles, os possibly 20 (Woody Gap and Neels Gap are popular places to quit.) The median is probably 500 miles (half the hikers drop out by Damascus.) The mean is likely closer to 1000 (the 20% who make it all the way pull up the mean.)

    But for the original posters, yeah, 5 months is a good target.
    Ken B
    'Big Cranky'
    Our Long Trail journal

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigcranky View Post
    Depends on which average you want. The mode (most common) would probably be 30 miles, os possibly 20 (Woody Gap and Neels Gap are popular places to quit.) The median is probably 500 miles (half the hikers drop out by Damascus.) The mean is likely closer to 1000 (the 20% who make it all the way pull up the mean.)

    But for the original posters, yeah, 5 months is a good target.
    But following your logic, half the finishers finish after Oct 15 and all finishers are close to that number. So, with a little respect for the math, the posters will target a little less than 5 months.

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