John, this is just a guess, but I'm thinking that the wind speed wouldn't matter so much if it's a loop course in that you'd be hitting headwind as much as tailwind? Still, I'm sure there's an upper limit on windspeed. I dunno... I'm going to try to find the correct answer, though.
And I agree with Max on all points. Personally I'd toast with champagne if I do a sub 3:50.