May 16 Start?

[MDSection12]

Is there any inherent problem with a May 16th start for a nobo? I consider myself a strong hiker and would like to finish around September 1st but of course I'd build some wiggle room in there. I like to hike more than 15 miles in a day (with full pack) to feel worn out when I section hike, so I can only imagine I'll push that as I get into 'trail shape?' Am I being too ambitious or overlooking any problems with my timing?

[max patch]

Assuming you hike 6 days a week you'll have to average 24 mpd every day starting with day 1. Possible, not probable. 5% chance.

[Don H]

Sure that's very reasonable. I started 3/13 and ended 9/7. You might get some snow, it will be cold in the Smokies. There will be lots of others starting around that time too.

The best advice I got on thru-hiking was start off slow and slowly build up. I started doing 9 or 10 miles a day even though I knew I could do more. I had already sectioned half the AT prior to a thru attempt and typically did 15 - 17 a day. Lots of people out there pushing it to do big miles and end up with knee injuries.

[Don H]

Opps, I thought he said March!

[bigcranky]

A 3.5 month thru-hike is pretty ambitious. It can be done, but it's usually done by hikers who have already thru'd or have other long distance hiking experience. It's not just the miles per day (though that's a major consideration), it's knowing from the very beginning how to be efficient on the trail and in town.

[Frog]

Why not do a SOBO I know you already have done most of the southern ends doing Section hikes. If you have never seen the northern end starting there if you run out of time on the trail at least you will see a lot of that. Plus it should be a lot less crowded going south and less crowds can make hiking faster more likely.

[Blissful]

Go SoBo and enjoy the journey. You may never get another chance.

[MDSection12]

I should clarify that I'm not constrained by those dates, I was just wondering if they were feasible as they would work well for me (wife's birthday is May 15th and mine is Sept 1st.) Another option would be to start earlier and plan on passing through MD in time to come home for a few days for her birthday. Would that be a better option?

Assuming you hike 6 days a week you'll have to average 24 mpd every day starting with day 1. Possible, not probable. 5% chance.

What is a more reasonable number for a strong hiker, but one with no experience on long trails?

A 3.5 month thru-hike is pretty ambitious. It can be done, but it's usually done by hikers who have already thru'd or have other long distance hiking experience. It's not just the miles per day (though that's a major consideration), it's knowing from the very beginning how to be efficient on the trail and in town.

That makes sense, and I'm sure there's a big learning curve there. Again what is more reasonable in your opinion?

Why not do a SOBO I know you already have done most of the southern ends doing Section hikes. If you have never seen the northern end starting there if you run out of time on the trail at least you will see a lot of that. Plus it should be a lot less crowded going south and less crowds can make hiking faster more likely.

I have only done sections in MD so far, including doing all of MD in 2.5 days a couple months ago. If I start then I plan to finish, I don't even want to build a failure option into the trip if I commit. If my timing doesn't work then I'll adjust it so it does work or simply wait for another opportunity, possibly 2014...

Go SoBo and enjoy the journey. You may never get another chance.

What about a Sobo would make me more likely to enjoy it? I definitely agree that I may never get another chance; I'm not even sure I have the chance now, but some things came up and if I get my act together quickly I think I can make 2013 work.

[Malto]

Here is the problem with the question you are asking. Until the last post there was absolutely no data that anyone could even guess about your ability to do your proposed hike. You say you are a strong hiker, but what is a strong hiker? To you it could be doing 15 mile days, to others it is the ability to do 30+ day after day. I would suggest putting a little more detail around both previous hikes, where, how long etc. and second what is your expectation for your hike. One poster made an assumption of one zero a week, some do more, others less. Do you expect to hike in a group? What is your expected base weight?

I will give you my assessment based on just your Maryland data point. Doing Maryland in 2.5 days is a cake walk compared with what you are talking. Maryland is easy and your mileage was not all that high. In contrast, I have no doubt that I could do the trip you are describing. But I also did back to back four state challenges (Maryland and WV) in under 48 hours without much effort. Does that make me better than you, no but it does give you a bit of calibration on what a strong hiker is and I suspect many of the folks doing the pace you are talking could leave me in the dust.

The trip you are talking is just over 100 days. You will have to consistently be able to do 25 mile days to offset losses due to neros, zeros and the tougher trail up north. Could you get in shape as you go, I think it is unlikely with the pace you are talking. It may be possible but the chances would be greatly reduced.

[MDSection12]

Here is the problem with the question you are asking. Until the last post there was absolutely no data that anyone could even guess about your ability to do your proposed hike. You say you are a strong hiker, but what is a strong hiker? To you it could be doing 15 mile days, to others it is the ability to do 30+ day after day. I would suggest putting a little more detail around both previous hikes, where, how long etc. and second what is your expectation for your hike. One poster made an assumption of one zero a week, some do more, others less. Do you expect to hike in a group? What is your expected base weight?

I will give you my assessment based on just your Maryland data point. Doing Maryland in 2.5 days is a cake walk compared with what you are talking. Maryland is easy and your mileage was not all that high. In contrast, I have no doubt that I could do the trip you are describing. But I also did back to back four state challenges (Maryland and WV) in under 48 hours without much effort. Does that make me better than you, no but it does give you a bit of calibration on what a strong hiker is and I suspect many of the folks doing the pace you are talking could leave me in the dust.

The trip you are talking is just over 100 days. You will have to consistently be able to do 25 mile days to offset losses due to neros, zeros and the tougher trail up north. Could you get in shape as you go, I think it is unlikely with the pace you are talking. It may be possible but the chances would be greatly reduced.

Ok sorry about the lack of info. I've gotten into backpacking in the last year with a group of friends. We made our first trip to Shenandoah National Park last November and did a 25 mike loop over Old Rag and Robertson over a three day weekend. In the spring we did a 25 mile loop in Dolly Sods, WV in three days. These were the trips that got me hooked.

Since last spring I've been out on the AT (I live about ten miles from Annapolis rock) for one weekend, a half dozen overnights, and tons of day hikes with an overnight weighted pack. I have pushed each trip a bit harder than the last and so far 18 miles is my max in a day, but I ran out of light and probably could have continued otherwise. That was day two of my MD section. The first day we had done 16 miles. We kept a 2.5 mph average over both days (for the day, so that includes breaks and lunch,) but I was constantly walking ahead and waiting for my group. They were all very worn out from the trip but I actually thought it was fairly easy.

I am a bit out of shape for me also. I am a mountain biker and have slacked off since this fall but if I had a goal in mind I would get back into training and could be a good bit leaner in three months or so. I tend to cycle that way from fall to spring. Unlike most people I'm very active in winter.

My usual pack weight is just under 40 lbs but that is due to the backcountry nature of our first trips... Not necessity. My base weight is currently around 17 lbs but if I get serious about this I can probably shave that down to around 10 with a few purchases (my current pack is 6 lbs.)

I'm a very determined person. If I start this I will finish it. I just don't know how to estimate my pace realistically... I'm not surprised to learn that I'm being a bit too ambitious, and that's exactly why I wanted to hear some more qualified opinions here.

Thanks for all the help so far guys, please excuse my ignorance.

[MDSection12]

Forgot to add that I'll be going solo if I go for it.

[Slo-go'en]

Ideally, you want to allow as much time as possible. There are a lot of variables once you get out there and being flexable is important.

A May 15th start is doable if you can stay out until Baxter closes on October 15. That gives you a full 5 months. You may end up not needing the full 5 months, but it's good to know you have that time available if you need it. Takes a lot of stress off trying to complete the trail quickly because you have to. Missing your birthday is a lot less important then missing your wifes.

The up side of leaving the middle of May is that your not likely to run into any cold weather, in fact it will be getting down right hot and muggy. Therefore, you can start out with a pretty lean and light pack. The down side is it will be hot and muggy pretty much the whole way.

[Donde]

If you have not done a long distance hike before I would not plan for anything under 4 months. 4 months is still ambitious. If you are not tied to those dates and seeing your wife for her b-day is important, I would start in mid to early March. Overall better weather window. Lots of time available (may or may not need it, but it is nice to have no pressure be able to stop on a dime for a cool camp spot or zero etc.) and easy to take a few days off in mid may from NVA/MD. I started MAR1 and did just that for mothers day in NVA. If you want to start after her B-day, SOBO, and have her come due a section with you in VA or wherever you are come SEP1.

Alternately you could get divorced and then just hike whenever the hell you want.

[Sugarfoot]

Go ahead and try it, but have a backup plan at the ready so you don't get discouraged. Something like, if I don't make to Maryland by June xx, I will flip up to Maine and hike south. Something about not putting all of your eggs in one basket. You might be one of the few who can really crank out 20+ mile days, but if you can't or find that you don't want to, don't let it ruin your thru-hike. Good luck!

[max patch]

A May 15th start is doable if you can stay out until Baxter closes on October 15.

Maybe. Sometimes Mother Nature has other ideas.

[The Solemates]

Ok sorry about the lack of info. I've gotten into backpacking in the last year with a group of friends. We made our first trip to Shenandoah National Park last November and did a 25 mike loop over Old Rag and Robertson over a three day weekend. In the spring we did a 25 mile loop in Dolly Sods, WV in three days. These were the trips that got me hooked.

Since last spring I've been out on the AT (I live about ten miles from Annapolis rock) for one weekend, a half dozen overnights, and tons of day hikes with an overnight weighted pack. I have pushed each trip a bit harder than the last and so far 18 miles is my max in a day, but I ran out of light and probably could have continued otherwise. That was day two of my MD section. The first day we had done 16 miles. We kept a 2.5 mph average over both days (for the day, so that includes breaks and lunch,) but I was constantly walking ahead and waiting for my group. They were all very worn out from the trip but I actually thought it was fairly easy.

I am a bit out of shape for me also. I am a mountain biker and have slacked off since this fall but if I had a goal in mind I would get back into training and could be a good bit leaner in three months or so. I tend to cycle that way from fall to spring. Unlike most people I'm very active in winter.

My usual pack weight is just under 40 lbs but that is due to the backcountry nature of our first trips... Not necessity. My base weight is currently around 17 lbs but if I get serious about this I can probably shave that down to around 10 with a few purchases (my current pack is 6 lbs.)

I'm a very determined person. If I start this I will finish it. I just don't know how to estimate my pace realistically... I'm not surprised to learn that I'm being a bit too ambitious, and that's exactly why I wanted to hear some more qualified opinions here.

Thanks for all the help so far guys, please excuse my ignorance.

As gg-man indicated, a "strong hiker" doesnt mean much when no one knows your background. With the above description, it gives a bit of a calibration starting point. My opinion based on what you have described above is that you are an average hiker. 18 miles is a max day for you, which based on a 100 day thru hike, is not substantial...in fact its slow.

my advice would be to try doing a trip in which you do at least 4-5 days of back to back 25 mile days and see how you feel after that trip. this may give you an idea as to your ability to do a 100 day thru hike.

[Malto]

If you are committed to doing a fast hike then check out my 2011 PCT journal at postholer.com. Search trail name Malto. The journal was written with future fast hikers in mind and you may find some helpful information. Your pace is a bit less ambitious as what I trained for but you will also get some indication of the type and intensity of the prehike training I did that allowed me to hit the trail with little to no startup curve. There is nothing impossible about your proposal but it will take a good bit of preparation and also a few compromises. If you read the during-hike entries, ask yourself if this type of hike sounds fun to you. I was for me but it won't be for most. You have to enjoy Type 2 fun. Finally, check out Andrew Skurka's website. I learned a great bit about long mile days from him.

[MDSection12]

OK so after thinking over what you guys had to say I realized that that timing just wouldn't work to give me the best shot at finishing, and having fun doing it. At this point I'm thinking if I do get the opportunity (lots still up in the air) then I'll get started in early March, then take a break in MD in early May to see my wife for our anniversary and her birthday (April 28 and May 15 respectively.) I don't know if I'd take the whole two weeks off, or just plan on doing both in one visit... But either way that should give me plenty of time to be off the trail by the end of August, I'd think. The September 1st goal wasn't just due to my birthday; it's more because the opportunity that may allow me to try this would be my return to school in the fall. I'm considering a career change, with some re-education, and I think the interim could be my shot at a thru.

Thanks for all the info guys. Part of the reason I'm so confident isn't because of what I've accomplished before, but more because of the mindset I've accomplished it with. I mountain bike, and when I do all I want to do is climb hills that are too big for me to climb. In the last few years I've really become a glutton for punishment and my favorite thing to do is work myself silly. I may step out on the trail in 15 mpd shape, but if I keep that mindset up I would think I can be pushing 20 pretty quickly as I get into 'trail shape.' Pain is certainly not a fear for me; it's the whole reason I want to do the trip.

[Astro]

You might want to try not being so caught up on celebrating on the exact day. I am just a section hiker and I missed my anniversary the last two years (and one was the 20th).

[MDSection12]

You might want to try not being so caught up on celebrating on the exact day. I am just a section hiker and I missed my anniversary the last two years (and one was the 20th).

This will be the first... Not an option. I can get away with some creative birthday celebrating if need be... But I can't miss April 28th.