Question on reletive difficulties.

[Thomas Mackay]

I have not hiked the entire AT. I have hiked much of the middle of it however, the area that is considered "easiest".

Knowing full well that the miles at the northern and southern ends of the AT are harder, take longer and are perhaps more torturous, I need to develop the ability to gauge what an "average day's hike" will be in these places.

I plan on flip-flopping or whatever it's called, come summer. I have 5 months, that's 21 weeks, that's 100 miles a week, that's 16-17mi a day considering 0 days. Therefore, say, 17mi/day will eventually be my average for the whole trail.

Except 17 miles in NH is different then 17 of my Maryland miles, so that won't work... Everyone has different hiking abilities, but to understand the relative difficulties, the magnitude of ones "average day" matters less than the range within ones own trip. So here are some questions for those who have been there, done that-

What was an "average day" for you in.... (Tried to group places with similar geographic features....)

1) Georgia?
2) Smokies?
3) TN/NC?
4) South-Central VA?
5) Shenandoah?
6) PA/MD?
7) NY/NJ?
8) CT/MA?
9) Greens?
10) Whites?
11) Maine?
NoBo or SoBo or Other?
Overall average?

This is actually an interesting question even just from the "gee I wonder what the relationship really is" point of view. If you have thru hiked, please leave a quick response. I can tally them up and make a graph or something.

[NERD ALERT]


For your convenience, places in N-S order.
Maine?
Whites?
Greens?
CT/MA?
NY/NJ?
PA/MD?
Shenandoah?
South-Central VA?
TN/NC?
Smokies?
Georgia?


-Mackay.

[Thomas Mackay]

I FOUND THIS:
http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/show...d-Schedules%29

I think my questions are now answered. WB FTW.

[map man]

I'm glad you have found the article I wrote to be useful. It would be helpful to know the details of your "flip-flop." For instance, southbound thru-hikers cover a lot more ground per day in the last sections of their hike, from Damascus to Springer, than northbounders do in that stretch (while still getting their "trail legs") as shown in the second table in that article.

[4shot]

Your goal of 21 weeks is very doable. That's an average of just about 15 miles a day with 0 days included. 2200/147. Best advice imo is: don't push yourself too hard at the start trying to achieve your goal. The 20 - 25 mile days will come easily enough once you get your trail legs although you will be in the minority if you can do 20 miles/day in the upper NH/lower Maine portion of the trail.

I have no way of knowing this but most (75% - 80%) thru-hikers could do a 21 week thru if motivated to do so.

[moldy]

Thomas, You are over thinking this. You are 22 years old. When your hike is over your average mpd for the entire trail will be over 18. The only place on the trail that your mpd will drop off is the 150 mile section between Kinsman notch NH and Rangely Maine. On the rest of the over 2,000 miles of trail other factors out weigh the terrain in determining your mpd average. The 3 main other factors are, hours of daylight, your learning curve, and your motivation.

[Thomas Mackay]

Yes Map Man your article pretty much answers my question exactly, better even. My flip flop is NJ>ME NJ>GA

4shot, This is good advice. I am building a schedule, but it will have flexibility. I just need to have an idea where I am on any day so others from home can join in on section hikes if they like (like my dad.)

Moldy, The other 3 factors I will keep in mind. Hours of daylight shouldn't be limiting since it'll be from june-sept, my learning curve only slight in the beginning, I'll think about motivation later

[4shot]

Thomas - do you backpack now? What is your average mpd (miles per day)? You are starting at a relatively "easy" part of the trail so your current pace should translate well. Many of us (well, maybe just me) trained but found that our 15 - 18 mile days at local trails turned into 10 - 12 mpd in the southern AT. I really don't know how well my local average would have translated to mpd if I had started in NJ but I suspect it would have been a lot closer pf not the same. Are your local trails similar to the NJ/NY parts of the trail? Again, keep your pace comfortable and don't get to caught up in trying to push too hard.

also, have you arranged your transportation back to NJ? If you don't have a good plan you can lose a couple of days in travel time.

[Thomas Mackay]

I have one question for Map Man though. In order to more perfectly model my planned hike, here is what I am going to do. Below is the chart from your study.

1) 9.4 miles..........(10.1 miles).........Springer to Georgia Border (75.6 miles)
2) 11.2 miles........(12.0 miles).........Georgia Border to Fontana (87.5 miles)
3) 12.2 miles........(14.0 miles).........Fontana to Damascus (297.1 miles)
4) 13.4 miles........(15.9 miles).........Damascus to Waynesboro (388.6 miles)
5) 14.4 miles........(16.8 miles).........Waynesboro to Harpers Ferry (161.1 miles)
6) 13.9 miles........(16.8 miles).........Harpers Ferry to DWG (270.3 miles)
7) 13.9 miles........(16.1 miles).........DWG to Kent (172.4 miles)
8) 14.0 miles........(15.5 miles).........Kent to Glencliff (323.8 miles)
9) 10.5 miles........(11.4 miles).........Glencliff to Gorham (100.6 miles)
10)11.1 miles........(12.5 miles).........Gorham to Stratton (110.1 miles)
11)13.6 miles........(14.7 miles).........Stratton to Katahdin (187.9 miles)
12)12.9 miles........(14.7 miles).........The entire AT (2175.0 miles)

Because I will be starting in NJ, say DWG, I will swap the MPD from line 1, with line 7. Also line 2 with line 8. Primitive, yes, but a closer model right?

7) 9.4 miles..........(10.1 miles).........DWG to Kent (172.4 miles)
8) 11.2 miles........(12.0 miles).........Kent to Glencliff (323.8 miles)
9) 10.5 miles........(11.4 miles).........Glencliff to Gorham (100.6 miles)
10)11.1 miles........(12.5 miles).........Gorham to Stratton (110.1 miles)
11)13.6 miles........(14.7 miles).........Stratton to Katahdin (187.9 miles)
*FLIP*
6) 13.9 miles........(16.8 miles).........Harpers Ferry to DWG (270.3 miles)
5) 14.4 miles........(16.8 miles).........Waynesboro to Harpers Ferry (161.1 miles)
4) 13.4 miles........(15.9 miles).........Damascus to Waynesboro (388.6 miles)
3) 12.2 miles........(14.0 miles).........Fontana to Damascus (297.1 miles)
2) 14.0 miles........(15.5 miles).........Georgia Border to Fontana (87.5 miles)
1) 13.9 miles........(16.1 miles).........Springer to Georgia Border (75.6 miles)

And since these numbers are adjusted for a 168.8 day hike, I can weight them to my planned 5 month hike. Very crude, but I think it should be within my margin or error for my schedule.

[Lyle]

Another article to look at would be B. Jack's re-supply article. He also gives some pretty useful estimates of hiking times for individual sections of the trail.

http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/content.php?15-resupply

[Thomas Mackay]

4Shot.

Yes I backpack now. I tend to manage about 17 mpd. In NJ, I've probably done about 15mpd although that was NJ and not the more rugged NY and CT. Out here in Western Maryland the mileages also tend to drop as well, even for shorter trips.

My dad is going to drive up to Katahdin and we're going to hike it together.Hopefully only lose 2 days, maybe 3. From Springer I'm taking the train home.

[Thomas Mackay]

Map Man

I ran the model I described above and found that for the northern third of the trail I consistently under estimated the time I would need by about 15%. I consistently overestimated the time I would need for the middle third by about 15%, and more or less estimated the southern third correctly. However, 15% compounded over the course of 50 days means my mail drop schedule would have been behind/ahead of myself by as much as a week.

So thank you for saving me that frustration.

[BuckeyeBill]

According to the latests guides, the trail is 2185.9 miles, so you need to adjust for this increase.

[Blissful]

I have one question for Map Man though. In order to more perfectly model my planned hike, here is what I am going to do. Below is the chart from your study.

1) 9.4 miles..........(10.1 miles).........Springer to Georgia Border (75.6 miles)
2) 11.2 miles........(12.0 miles).........Georgia Border to Fontana (87.5 miles)
3) 12.2 miles........(14.0 miles).........Fontana to Damascus (297.1 miles)
4) 13.4 miles........(15.9 miles).........Damascus to Waynesboro (388.6 miles)
5) 14.4 miles........(16.8 miles).........Waynesboro to Harpers Ferry (161.1 miles)
6) 13.9 miles........(16.8 miles).........Harpers Ferry to DWG (270.3 miles)
7) 13.9 miles........(16.1 miles).........DWG to Kent (172.4 miles)
8) 14.0 miles........(15.5 miles).........Kent to Glencliff (323.8 miles)
9) 10.5 miles........(11.4 miles).........Glencliff to Gorham (100.6 miles)
10)11.1 miles........(12.5 miles).........Gorham to Stratton (110.1 miles)
11)13.6 miles........(14.7 miles).........Stratton to Katahdin (187.9 miles)
12)12.9 miles........(14.7 miles).........The entire AT (2175.0 miles)

Because I will be starting in NJ, say DWG, I will swap the MPD from line 1, with line 7. Also line 2 with line 8. Primitive, yes, but a closer model right?

7) 9.4 miles..........(10.1 miles).........DWG to Kent (172.4 miles)
8) 11.2 miles........(12.0 miles).........Kent to Glencliff (323.8 miles)
9) 10.5 miles........(11.4 miles).........Glencliff to Gorham (100.6 miles)
10)11.1 miles........(12.5 miles).........Gorham to Stratton (110.1 miles)
11)13.6 miles........(14.7 miles).........Stratton to Katahdin (187.9 miles)
*FLIP*
6) 13.9 miles........(16.8 miles).........Harpers Ferry to DWG (270.3 miles)
5) 14.4 miles........(16.8 miles).........Waynesboro to Harpers Ferry (161.1 miles)
4) 13.4 miles........(15.9 miles).........Damascus to Waynesboro (388.6 miles)
3) 12.2 miles........(14.0 miles).........Fontana to Damascus (297.1 miles)
2) 14.0 miles........(15.5 miles).........Georgia Border to Fontana (87.5 miles)
1) 13.9 miles........(16.1 miles).........Springer to Georgia Border (75.6 miles)

And since these numbers are adjusted for a 168.8 day hike, I can weight them to my planned 5 month hike. Very crude, but I think it should be within my margin or error for my schedule.

Nice to say it, but different to hike it.

Throw it all out the window. You won't know what you can do until you are out there. Hike it as you go.

[Malto]

I agree with moldy that you are probably over thinking this. (this coming from someone that way over thinks hiking schedules). Don't stress over the resupply schedule. Come up with one and adjust on the fly. I had a very constrained schedule AND a lot of mail drops. I had a schedule but I adjusted by telling my wife to adjust the ship day by whatever number of days that I was ahead or behind. Also since you will want to send the package to arrive a few days or even a full week ahead, it gives you a huge window to hit.

As far as total schedule, a properly motivated hiker and prepared hiker will no problem finishing in five months.

[map man]

7) 9.4 miles..........(10.1 miles).........DWG to Kent (172.4 miles)
8) 11.2 miles........(12.0 miles).........Kent to Glencliff (323.8 miles)
9) 10.5 miles........(11.4 miles).........Glencliff to Gorham (100.6 miles)
10)11.1 miles........(12.5 miles).........Gorham to Stratton (110.1 miles)
11)13.6 miles........(14.7 miles).........Stratton to Katahdin (187.9 miles)
*FLIP*
6) 13.9 miles........(16.8 miles).........Harpers Ferry to DWG (270.3 miles)
5) 14.4 miles........(16.8 miles).........Waynesboro to Harpers Ferry (161.1 miles)
4) 13.4 miles........(15.9 miles).........Damascus to Waynesboro (388.6 miles)
3) 12.2 miles........(14.0 miles).........Fontana to Damascus (297.1 miles)
2) 14.0 miles........(15.5 miles).........Georgia Border to Fontana (87.5 miles)
1) 13.9 miles........(16.1 miles).........Springer to Georgia Border (75.6 miles)

Thomas, since no hiker is exactly "average" you may hike more or less per day than the values in this modified table you made, but I do think it's a good approximation of the "relative" differences between sections for your flip-flop hike. My only small quibble with the proportions is I think that since your first two sections, the NJ-NY section and Kent-Glencliff section, have less severe ups and downs than the first couple southern sections for a beginning NOBO, that rather than taking 10 miles per hiking day in the first section, and 12 in the second, you could bump those values up a couple miles per hiking day for your hike in those first two sections, and then pro-rate the values for a five month hike from there.

I, like you, think this is a lot of fun as an intellectual exercise -- but clearly not for everybody.

[4shot]

Map Man

However, 15% compounded over the course of 50 days means my mail drop schedule would have been behind/ahead of myself by as much as a week.

So thank you for saving me that frustration.

Just one opinion here...if I was hiking to a schedule or deadline (as you are), I wouldn't want to do too much in the way of maildrops. They are nice on occasion as you can get some items that are hard to find on the trail but they add a bit of logistics that can complicate things. No matter how much planning you do, you will always have a situation where you get to town 15 minutes after the post office closes. Or you have to sort out what you need/want with what is already in your pack and deal with bouncing it ahead.

I did get a few mail drops along the way but mostly it was in the later 1/2 when I wanted to add some variety to my diet. They were a bit of a hassle but I wasn't on a schedule. OTOH, you get to where you can walk into a convenience store or grocery store and buy 4 days worth of food in about 10 minutes.

[brian039]

I went through and broke down my averages not taking into account zero days through the sections you mentioned. I'll also give you a rating on a 0-10 scale with 10 being what I thought was hardest. I hiked north so I'll list it in that order:

1) Georgia - 9.6 mpd. I was out of shape and the days were short. 5/10

2) Smokies - 12.5 mpd. 6/10

3) NC/TN - 12.5 mpd. 5/10

4) South/Central VA - 14.4 mpd. I'd give south VA a 3/10 and Central VA a 6/10

5) Shennandoah - 16.9 mpd. 4/10

6) PA/MD - 16.5 mpd. 2/10

7) NY/NJ - 15.3 mpd. NJ gets a 4/10 and NY gets a 7/10.

8) CT/Mass - 16.1 mpd. 5/10

9) Greens - 15.2 mpd. Started hiking with a group here and it slowed me down. 5/10

10) Whites - 11.1 mpd. 9/10

11) Maine - 13.5 mpd. Southern Maine gets 10/10, Central Maine 5/10, Northern Maine 8/10

[Datto]

Something to keep in mind with your flip-flop -- if you run behind when you come back to NJ to head south after your flip back to New Jersey -- Pennsylvania, Maryland, West Virginia and Virginia (particularly southbounding down to about Waynesboro) are where you can make up a great deal of time if you have to do so. You'll be in great trail shape by then and you'll still be experiencing lots of daytime light hours in those states so the hiking length of time per day is better.

All of that "make-up" time/territory is true true for northbounder AT thru-hikers starting at Springer also. Once a northbounder gets to New York, available make up time may start disappearing.


Datto

[prain4u]

1) In my opinion, you are over-thinking and over planning this. In most instances, detailed hiking plans quickly become obsolete and pretty worthless the moment you start hiking and the realities of the trail set in. REMEMBER: It is just walking. Nothing more. Nothing less. Each day you will hike as far as you hike. If you are in reasonably good condition, hike a reasonable pace and have "long" hiking days--you should complete your hike within the time frame that you have available. Some days you will hike far. Some days you will hike not-so-far. It will all average out in the end.

2) If you read these forums long enough, you will see a large number of people who did mail drops on a thru hike who now say that they would not do mail drops on another thru hike. Many people find that it is a hassle to coordinate your hiking pace with your planned mail drops---and to work around the increasingly limited hours of small-town post offices. Buy your food and supplies in trail towns as you go.

3) I would concur with the idea that you should take it easy the first 2-4 weeks of your hike. Many hikers have tried to hike too far too soon and injured themselves in the process. This ends their hike--or causes them to take time out to recuperate.

[prain4u]

Hours of daylight shouldn't be limiting since it'll be from june-sept

Just a note: Near the end of June--the days start getting shorter again. Thus, August and September's daylight hours are pretty similar to those found in April and March. In Knoxville, Tennessee--on September 15th you will have 2 hours and 14 minutes LESS daylight than you had on June 22nd in Knoxville.