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Thread: dropout %

  1. #1

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    Hey everyone, Rash here. I am currently at ~mile marker 350. So far I have been nailed by 2 snow storms both dumping knee and waist deep snow. Trail conditions have been rough at times at best. In the past week i have had 6 hikers I knew personally drop out. Yes we were all early starters "Feb" we under stood and were all prepared. Couldn't have picked a better start date. All of a sudden my trail friends are dropping like flies. My question is, is there a % chart that vaguely shows drop out rate at areas like Neels Gap, Fontana, Hot Springs, Damascus and so on? I am just amazed at the people dropping out. TH is covered with it.

    www.trailjournals.com/Rash
    Doing What You Like Is Freedom , Liking What You Do Is Happiness

  2. #2

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    It's really hard to put numbers on the drop out rate for various points on the trail. People don't list thier names at the places they decide to go home at. They just sneak off in the middle of the night.

    About all we really know is that a large percentage of those who start before the middle of March don't make it very far. Those who do stick with it this year will definately have bragging rights when it's all over and done with.
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  3. #3
    Registered User canoe's Avatar
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    Rash, Ive been reading your journal. You are doing really well. You probably have a better idea as how many have dropped out. This spring as you know has been more than difficult. Long layovers, injuries, horrible weather, waiste deep snow will take its toll. Maybe alot who have dropped out will get back on when the snow melts.

  4. #4
    Registered User Razor's Avatar
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    Rough % from the ATC web site --20% by Neel Gap. 40% by Fontana Dam .50% by Harpers Ferry, 25% finish. Of course this varies by the year.

  5. #5

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    As you said , Rash, I think a lot of it is weather related. I thru'd in '02--AWESOME weather year! But, even then, I think the finish rate was 16 %. (someone correct me if u have more accurate numbers) Two funerals, a wedding and a broken arm and I still made it. In 2003, it was a miserable RAINY year! I can't remember the exact figures but something like 100 consecutive days of RAIN, RAIN and MORE RAIN! That year-- I think I might have gone home!

    You're doing great. Hang in there. It is an AWESOME ADVENTURE!!
    Sunny aka Sunrise ga-me 02 aka Cody Zamora
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  6. #6
    Registered User louisb's Avatar
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    Hi Rash, nothing to add to this conversation but I just wanted to say I have been enjoying your journal. Your obviously one of the stronger hikers this year and have a good chance to make it to the Big K. Hang in there.

    --louis

  7. #7
    Registered User DavidNH's Avatar
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    Josh... as already mentioned.. go to the ATC website and you will find the numbers of who started, who finished, and where the numbers dropped off. Razor is pretty much right on about the Attrission. Dang.. I don't know how to spell that word!

    But basically, by Neels Gap you get rid of the Yahoos.. those who started out gung-ho but had no idea what they were doing and were totally unprepared. By Fontana Dam.. you get rid of those who just aren't up to it.

    By Harpers Ferry you've gotten rid of those who can't handle being bored, didn't have the strength, maybe got home sick, or didn't have the resouces.

    By the time you get to the northeast.. most everyone you still have around you will, or could finish.

    Of course all along the trail folks may drop out due to injury or lack of funds.

    Regrettably you never get rid of the alcoholics and party folks.

  8. #8
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    i quit twice in Gorham NH

  9. #9
    Flip flop, flip flopping' LASHin' 2000 miler
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    Here's a spreadsheet I put together based on historical ATC data:

    http://www.laughingdog.com/2012/02/a...ion-rates.html

    Because it's all averages, it doesn't account for a long, cold, stormy spring ...
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  10. #10

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    Be careful not to assume that because all your friends quit that their reasons for doing so also apply to you.

    There will be plenty of people left on the trail.

  11. #11
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    For almost 10 years now some hiker friends and I have participated in a fantacy hiking league. We each pick a team off the TJ web pages. We all noticed after several years of play that early starters in general do very poorly as far as finishing. My rule of thumb for picking team members is last week of March through the first week if April for a start date. Early bad weather and early injury will cause drop outs. Later on in the year bad weather and injuries might give you a set back but you are more likely to return and finish. Bad weather can also be expensive. Young underfinanced inexperienced thru-hikers can be driven off the trail for lack of funds as they wait out a storm in a hotel.

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    I just pulled out an old trail journal from a section hike in 94. That year I stayed at the shelter at the State Park. From the register their one person bailed at the top of the falls after the 1.1 mile hike. Two more turned around at Walnut Mountain Shelter before even reaching Springer. The guy met & hiked with bailed before NC to rethink & regroup. The dream & reality are two different things.

  13. #13
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    I have always been skeptical about the figure that 25% of thru-hikers finish. I suspect that there are many who intend to thru-hike and drop out, but never register anywhere, so they are not in the denominator. I am speculating, of course.

  14. #14
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    Hey I give all those that started in Feb and even March a huge thumbs up for sticking thru it. The weather this year is just amazing. But have faith! It HAS to get better! And I'm not just saying that because I am starting in 9 days

  15. #15

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    Go Rash! Still enjoying your FB and TJ posts. Just saw on the local news (Asheville, WLOS) where 5 hikers were rescued from Clingmans Dome just this weekend, unprepared. And the conditions were much better than when you came through there.

  16. #16

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    Would disagree very strongly with some of the quoted figures, i.e. 20% (one in five) quitting by Neel Gap. I simply do not believe this figure to be accurate, likewise the 40% quit rate by Fontana. I don't know where these figures come from. I also dispute the 25% completion rate. If we're talking about folks who actually complete the entire Trail, the correct figure would be significantly less. Whoever collects or believes these figures needs to get out more.

  17. #17
    Registered User canoe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Tarlin View Post
    Would disagree very strongly with some of the quoted figures, i.e. 20% (one in five) quitting by Neel Gap. I simply do not believe this figure to be accurate, likewise the 40% quit rate by Fontana. I don't know where these figures come from. I also dispute the 25% completion rate. If we're talking about folks who actually complete the entire Trail, the correct figure would be significantly less. Whoever collects or believes these figures needs to get out more.
    Really ............?

  18. #18

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Tarlin View Post
    If we're talking about folks who actually complete the entire Trail, the correct figure would be significantly less. Whoever collects or believes these figures needs to get out more.
    That's why we need a study grant to place game camaras near all state line crossings. Photograph every hiker to come by and track thier progress. I know this would creep people out if they knew about it, but it would be the best way to get hard and fast numbers on stuff like this.
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  19. #19
    Flip flop, flip flopping' LASHin' 2000 miler
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    Quote Originally Posted by Slo-go'en View Post
    That's why we need a study grant to place game camaras near all state line crossings. Photograph every hiker to come by and track thier progress. I know this would creep people out if they knew about it, but it would be the best way to get hard and fast numbers on stuff like this.
    I've said it before, and I'll say it again. Think EZ Pass sensors along the trail and sub-cutaneous transmitters implanted inn thru hikers .. Just saying ...

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  20. #20

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack Tarlin View Post
    Would disagree very strongly with some of the quoted figures, i.e. 20% (one in five) quitting by Neel Gap. I simply do not believe this figure to be accurate, likewise the 40% quit rate by Fontana. I don't know where these figures come from. I also dispute the 25% completion rate. If we're talking about folks who actually complete the entire Trail, the correct figure would be significantly less. Whoever collects or believes these figures needs to get out more.
    Quote Originally Posted by canoe View Post
    Really ............?
    Really!!!!

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