Concur. This is where people with 3 digits in their IQ instinctively suspect this number was pulled out of someone's rear end.Originally Posted by Jack Tarlin
Pain is a by-product of a good time.
I quite twice...Pearisburg 611 miles and Atkins 535 miles, I don't remember many people bailing around Erwin but I think it has alot more to do with length of time on the trail than miles. For many hikers who get past the early days of quitting, the last big purge seems to be southwestern Virginia, hence the Virginia Blues...this is usually around the 6-8 week mark for many people.
If people started 5-6 weeks ago and are quitting, regardless of miles, it makes sense to me. Also, weather knocks alot of people off, expecially cold wet weather.
Keep positive and expect another purge between Damascus and Pearisburg.
Baltimore Jack, as always, speaketh with wisdom.
I wonder, though, what fraction of the folk who complete a thru-hike kept quiet about their intentions at the beginning? The numerator of the fraction could be just as suspect.
In any case, winter weather is rough going.
I always know where I am. I'm right here.
As most of the time, Jack is right. There are quite a few folks who start hiking NOBO from Springer each spring who claim to be "Thru-Hilers" but have no intention to hike the whole trail. These folks are counted as Thru-Hikers but are not. a lot of them are college kids just out for spring break. A lot of them don't have enough funds and most of all quite a few don't have the 5-7 monts to spend on the trail.
Someone should do a in depth study, asking the right questions to those starting and than decide how many are realy set for a thru-hike. This would allow real figures for thru hikers to be determined.
Grampie-N->2001
Keep on Keepin on Rash!! I'm enjoying your journey!! By following TJ for a few years, it looks like the "Shine" of the Adventure turns to work & monotony somewhere @ the 300-600 mile mark for many & they get lonely & bail, since a Thru-hike is 90% mental. The Great thing about this Winters snow is that the Spring flowers & streams should be amazing!
Take Time to Watch the Trees Dance with The Wind........Then Join In........
I was researching a VA section that I'm starting on in a few weeks & I came across this May 30th TJ entry from "Pips 08' & She really sums up how someone with a positive attitude can make their adventure, their adventure. BTW - She did make it all the way!!
"The trail was SO full of people at the beginning (Georgia/NC/TN) that it seemed most places, even if they were beautiful, weren't special -- the moments were short lived because someone would interupt or intrude. Now, the crowds are thinning out and my hike is becoming more personal."
Take Time to Watch the Trees Dance with The Wind........Then Join In........
I think that would create a new hiker tradition, The State Line Moon Walk. Where a THer drops trou and walks backwards toward the camera as they cross the state lines.What
Is it really that big of a deal for a stupid certificate? No. To certify hikers as bonafide thru-hikers would take more than just a few cameras.
I agree with Jack, but how much money do we want the ATC to spend certifying thruhikers? Personally, I'd just drop the whole 2,000-miler thing, it just attracts a lot of people that need to feel good about themselves.
When I was sectioning I ran into a lot of folks who were sticking out to Damascus for trail days and then heading home.
TO THOSE Hardy souls on the AT north bound ; don't worry about others dropping out; Hike your Hike ; you're marching into Spring and PA is beautiful in a few weeks. We are all proud of what you are doing.
How about we don't care who claims they are going to thru hike it until they.... thru hike it. Pick a spot at some point that if they make it at least that far can at least be considered as someone that legitimately was going for it but for whatever reason had to bail. The ones who claimed it was there intention but barely got it of the gates would not even be included in the statistics.
Sent from my Galaxy Note 2 using Tapatalk 2
25% completion rate, stated earlier, has to be incorrect. I would doubt in the best of years it's that much. I could be wrong. As for the other stats tossed out, I have no idea, but I'd say over half have left the trail prior to West Va. A third, or more, probably out by Damascus. Maybe, 10% finish. These are all wild A$$ guesses.
You have to sign in at Baxter, and most do. I"m sure some don't so the Numbe rthes is a little easer to track.
If it do'nt eat you or kill you it makes you stronger
'The true soldier fights not because he hates what is in front of him, but because he loves what is behind him.' G. K. Chesterton
The Smoky Mountain "mandatory" permitting system--if the data could be accessed--might add another point where the numbers MIGHT be a bit more solid. Then again--who knows!
"A vigorous five-mile walk will do more good for an unhappy but otherwise healthy adult than all the medicine and psychology in the world." - Paul Dudley White
Hi, Rash! Keep going, buddy, you can do it! I have faith in you. I'm enjoying your Trail Journal, and will soon be bacounk on the trail in your tracks. Remember the section-hiking couple who stayed at Hemlock Hollow at the same time as you and your buddies. We met you on the trail going southbound the day you were slack-packing from Hemlock Hollow to Devil Fork Gap. Wait-up and Catch-up from Florida. Good to hear from you, and glad to know you are still on the trail.
I would think the statistics kept at the Kennebec River Ferry would be a good representation of both those who finish and start at Katahdin.
Different years can be found online, but at different places.
Here are the numbers for 2007.
http://www.riversandtrails.com/2007kennebecferry.html
Not sure about the relative accuracy of counts down south, though.
At first I thot you hit upon a great idea....then I remembered that a "thru hike" according to the GSMNP is a hike that both starts and ends at least 50 miles from where you enter and exit the park.
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