Thru Hike SOBO starting Beginning of August - What weather should I expect?

[Shattuck311]

Hi All,

I have some big plans next summer. I first plan to thru hike the PCT starting in late April. I plan to finish the trail, and immediately fly out to Maine to thru hike the AT SOBO. I plan on starting the AT in the first week of August, and plan on it taking me into mid November at the latest. I know these are ambitious plans, but I beleive that I am capable. What I am having trouble finding is details on what weather I can expect if I start in the beginning of August on in Main, and hike south, averaging 20 mpd? Does anyone have any insight, or help with directing me towards weather information for those times? Obviously I know things can be variable, and there is no way to tell exactly what it will be like, but I'm hoping I won't be hitting a monsoon season anywhere or something like that. Any help is appreciated

Thank you!

Steven

[VTATHiker]

I started August 19th last year and had no need for any cold weather gear until the Whites. I brought my 40 degree bag through the Whites but we had a cold spell and temperatures got down into the 20s. If I did it again I'd start with the 40 degree bag, switch out to the 20 degree bag in Gorham, and then switch back to the 40 degree bag after the Whites. I didn't really need the 20 degree bag again until the Smokys.

That time of year is hurricane season, so it's not uncommon to get some left-over hurricane rain in the north east, or even a direct hit when you're farther down the coast, e.g. Frankenstorm last year... bah!

Good luck.

[Slo-go'en]

We've had a very mild fall this year and that has been the general trend the last few years. August is good and hot, expect fairly frequent thunderstorms. September is nice, but there is usually a cold snap mid to late month which often brings a little snow. October is variable since it is the transition month between fall and winter. November can be down right nasty with freezing rain or snow at the higher elevations in NC, where it is you'll likely to be.

Monson season is in the spring, but as noted, there can and has been the occasional huricane or tropical storm which can cause 24 hours of intense rain. Typically, you'll have penty of warning and if that happens, it is best to hunker down someplace for the duration, ideally a hotel room

[Malto]

I believe your plan has a very low probability of success as to your AT start date. In order for you to be done with the PCT by the end of July you will need both a very low snow year in the Sierra as well as virtually no residual snow in the PNW. Here's the rough numbers. Lets say you can do the first 700 miles by June 1st, not impossible but you will need to be moving, 23mpd. That leaves you 60 days to do 1960 miles for a 33mpd average with no zeros. You will need virtually no snow to do that pace which is why I think it is a low probability.

But here's the bright side. If you are even remotely capable of doing the PCT schedule then you will hike the AT at a far faster pace than 20mpd so you can catch up to your schedule.

Just out of curiosity. What experience do you have that makes you believe that you are capable? Here is a link to my PCT journal. You will need to keep the same pace that I did but without my 5 days off in Tahoe. The linked page is a good place to start. http://postholer.com/journal/viewJou...entry_id=27590

[Shattuck311]

Thank you for the responses, that's exactly what I was looking for! Great link and info, Malto. I really would like to do both trails in one year, as it would take much more of a toll on my career to do them consecutively. More than anything, I was just concerned what weather I would have hitting those area's in the given months on the trail. My goal would be to finish by the first week of November, avoiding the harsh cold. I'll plan on bringing my lighter quilt, and switch out for a warmer one in the Whites, thanks Slo-go-en. That's very helpful. Cheers!

Malto - As for experience, I haven't done any of the long trails, so I can't say what I could or could not do. I do have an ultralight system, using the ray way backpack, tarp, and quilt. My base weight is under 10 pounds. I used a much heavier system when I did the LT end to end, and the Colorado Trail (CT) as a thru hike. On the LT I solo'd and averaged 23 mpd (again, with a much heavier pack), and on the CT, I hiked with my girlfriend of the time and we averaged 25 mpd. Had I gone solo on that, I easily would have been over 30mpd. I have done the JMT twice in summer conditions (13 days both times). Additionally, I live in Denver (high alt), and climb every weekend, with most days being over 15 miles and 5,000k+ feet of gain. I am no superman, but with a light pack, I believe it is possible for me to average 30mpd. A lot of my mountain hiking is in the snow/winter, so I am confident in my abilities to hike through the sierra's with lots of snow. That will not be an issue. It will slow me down, definitely, but I won't stop and wait for the snow to melt. I plan to be to Kennedy Meadows and into the sierra's in the last week of May. Lastly, I primarily plan on food drops for the PCT. This should help speed things up. Lastly, I'm a 26 year old male... In my prime Do I think I have a 100% success rate? No. But I like my chances

[Malto]

Do you have a set window of time or is avoiding the "harsh cold" or minimizing the overall time off what's driving your schedule. The reason I ask is if minimizing the overall time is what your shooting for AND avoiding major weather issues on the AT then I would start a month later on the PCT and do an identical timed trip as I did. My goal was to hit a 100 day hike and the start and end times are absolutely optimized for a typical years conditions. My end date was in Late August allowing you to hit the AT on September 1st. Even with this later start you should be able to do a 90 day hike getting you finished by the end of November. While there could be a stray storm in this timeframe, it would slow you down a lot less then potentially fighting the snow melt as you head north. To give you a good feel for this check out some of the 2012 journals for hikers on fast paced hikes. A great blog is http://www.thehikinglife.com/journal...rth-to-canada/ Swami hiked all three long trails in 2012. He was on a bit faster pace than you are planning but he also hit the PCT with a few thousand miles worth of hiking during the prior year. Had had to do an earlier start because he hiked the CDT in between the PCT and AT so he had no realistic choice.

as far as my question on experience. We often see plans like you're proposing from folks ranging from no backpacking experience all the to folks like Swami that has hiked all over the world for years so it is always helpful to know where you are on that spectrum. The low base weight and mid length trips on the Lt and Ct is great experience to have. I would recommend getting a few long days (40 miles) under your belt. It will be a great help to you from both a mental and physical POV. This page in my journal explains why. http://postholer.com/journal/viewJou...entry_id=26640