2013 may be the worst thru-hike season in a very long time.

[rickb]

I am thinking the data was collected differently, or there was a typo.

A 60% year to year increase would have been felt and remarked upon, rather than pass without much comment.

[imscotty]

From what I recall of Mt. Squid and Map Man's number crunching, later in April would be a better time to start if you want to avoid the thru-hiker crowds than earlier in March. Start in Mid-April and you will probably experience better weather and will still have 6 months to finish.

[rickb]

The number of AT Journals on trailjournals.com increased from 423 in 2012 to 511 this year-- an increase of about 21%.

No way the number of hikers increased 60% this past year.

[Alligator]

Moldy you are not looking at the numbers correctly on the page. There are no 2012 numbers listed on the page. I am not sure if they have simply not updated for 2012 or perhaps they lag those numbers when they compare within years on the table while waiting for completion reports. Also, the 2013 completions are not all reported. I don't know how preliminary they are but they will continue to get completion reports.
http://www.appalachiantrail.org/abou...il/2000-milers

[Carbo]

I think the large number of baby boomers reaching retirement age will have something to do with an increase in the starters at Springer.

[ChinMusic]

I am glad I hiked this year though, it made for some great stories.

Me too. The sucky times seem so fulfilling in some twisted way.

ChinMusic has the bragging right . He started early and strong and finished even stronger. The statistics shows that 2013 was a specially tough year to hike.

I was too stubborn to quit. Curmudgeons rule.........

Since I had never thruhiked before it was just another year, to me. I was thinking, "I don't recall all this stuff in all the Trail Journals I have read. Oh well."

The OP left out "dodging Cadillacs"

[Del Q]

Agreed, the movie will EXPLODE AT hikers.

[Robin2013AT]

I have been waiting for theses stats. It seemed to me almost everybody I hiked with finished so I thought the success rate might be higher. I wonder what caused this illusion?

I am badass aren't I?

[hikerboy57]

I have been waiting for theses stats. It seemed to me almost everybody I hiked with finished so I thought the success rate might be higher. I wonder what caused this illusion?

I am badass aren't I?

yes you are.even norovirus couldnt keep up with you.

[moldy]

The ATC web page is clear about the number of hikers starting North. I wonder if they have a new counting method. Perhaps they have added the names of people who skipped the Approach Trail by including the additional names from the log book kept at the top of Springer. That would take extra effort and introduce the possibility of bogus data. If the web page data were wrong they would have taken it down by now. And where is 2012's numbers?

[hikerboy57]

2377 should have registered as section hikers.
that would have produced a 100% success rate

[Robin2013AT]

where did 12% come from? Based on the ATC #s my math shows it lower...

[jj2044]

I think its possible for the increase. I think people are forgetting how nice the "normal" at hiking season was in 2012, it was beautiful I only remember getting snowed on 1 time and it didn't even stick. I think seeing the success rate and wonderful weather we had in 2012, I think a lot of people threw in for 2013 because of 2012, I also think a lot of young people just out of high school or college unable to find jobs said screw it (maybe not the smartest thing) im going hiking. the data it says 1700 started in 2011.... so I figure 2000 +/-100 in 2012. once the Bill Bryson move comes out I wouldn't be surprised to see 4000 a year start. I liked the book, thought it was funny, but I kind of hope the move sucks, the more popular the more people are going to be out there. oh and started March 10th and there was EASY 30 people at hawk shelter, but it thinned out fairly quick.

[Deacon]

Just looking at the numbers what I see is a fairly normal number finishing, a fairly normal number reaching Harpers Ferry, but an unusually high number starting out north bound.

I would be interested to know why there was an increase of 1000 potential thru-hikers starting out over that of 2011, when in years past the increase has been 100 to 200 more hikers over previous years. Maybe my math is wrong but isnt that a 62% increase?

Part of the reason for the increased numbers this year is there was a large influx of hikers from Europe, especially Germany. While on the AT portion of the Long Trail this summer, when the bubble was passing thru, I would estimate that a quarter of the NOBO hikers I met were from Germany.

From what the Germans tell me, there was a video presented on there National television about the AT. That enticed many to do the trail.

[sadlowskiadam]

I started this year on April 28 and had no problems with overcrowding, snow, or finishing on time in Maine. The weather on the trail this season was particularly wet (each year is different and you cannot control it). If you are concerned about bad weather and crowded trails, then I suggest that you start in late April or early May. There will still be plenty of thru hikers starting at this time and you will eventually catch up to the bubble anyway.

[fredmugs]

Wait until the Bill Bryson "A Walk in the Woods" movie comes out. Every Yahoo and his brother will be queuing up at Springer Mountain.

I agree. It's going to be ugly. Mountain Crossings is going to make a fortune.

[Paul the Brit]

I would be interested to see the start numbers and completion rates based on age brackets (20's, 30's, 40's etc.). I would guess the higher numbers starting are in the younger age ranges but would be interesting to see this as a relationship to completion rates.

[HikerMom58]

I would love to know if the female completion percentage is higher than the males.

[Paul the Brit]

I see a potential research study for someone

[map man]

Moldy you are not looking at the numbers correctly on the page. There are no 2012 numbers listed on the page. I am not sure if they have simply not updated for 2012 or perhaps they lag those numbers when they compare within years on the table while waiting for completion reports. Also, the 2013 completions are not all reported. I don't know how preliminary they are but they will continue to get completion reports.
http://www.appalachiantrail.org/abou...il/2000-milers

I think Alligator has this right. And I don't know why the stats for 2012 have gone away but I remember the NOBO start numbers for that year were 2500, and that was a big jump from the 1700 estimated starters in 2011. I don't believe there has been a real life big jump like that. If you look at the database that Mouintain Squid maintains here at WB for members reporting thru-hike attempts, the numbers haven't changed that much in recent years -- it's been between 550 and 650 for each class from 2010 to 2013. Also, the number of journalers at TJ and Postholer has not seen that dramatic jump.

I think instead that it's likely the ATC came to the conclusion, for some reason, that starters in the past had been undercounted and starting in 2012 they changed their methodologies for estimating starters (and that in turn means if they really were underestimating in the past that projections of around 30% completion rates in those years previous to 2012 would be an overestimate).

Having said that, it is undoubtedly true that the wet weather in 2013 made a thru-hike more difficult than in an average year. But we've seen awful weather years in the past (2003 comes to mind) and that cut down on completers, but not drastically. If this year is like other years hikers will report completions to ATC in trickles that will continue into early 2014, and then it will be easier to judge.