2013 may be the worst thru-hike season in a very long time.

[Malto]

I would be interested to see the start numbers and completion rates based on age brackets (20's, 30's, 40's etc.). I would guess the higher numbers starting are in the younger age ranges but would be interesting to see this as a relationship to completion rates.

i suspect that 30-50 would have the highest finish rate. Too many of the youngsters run out of money or have no clue what they are getting into. The same will happen to the older folks but I would hope it is less likely. I would also guess that the rate drops with age above 50 due to injuries. Mapman, what say you?

[map man]

i suspect that 30-50 would have the highest finish rate. Too many of the youngsters run out of money or have no clue what they are getting into. The same will happen to the older folks but I would hope it is less likely. I would also guess that the rate drops with age above 50 due to injuries. Mapman, what say you?

I just don't know. Looking at trail journals, like I've done for other purposes, just won't yield good objective data whether it's trying to figure out overall completion rates or completion rates by age group because so many people discontinue journaling somewhere along the trail with no explanation for why -- so it's unknown whether the hike stopped or the person just got tired of on-line journaling.

This stuff does interest me, though, as you know. Maybe when I retire in a few years I could stand at Springer all day long from February through May and persuade people to fill out surveys and then do the same thing at Katahdin from late June through October. I wonder if I could find some grant money to pay me to do that? It would probably be a severe test for my already high tolerance for statistics tedium.

[Que Sera]

If anything, I think the completion rate might be higher this year than previous years, and that the number posted on the ATC website might be way off (I know it says they're still awaiting more completion reports).

One thru-hiker who's trail journal I followed had her summitting Katahdin on October 6th and she says she was hiker #677 for that year. She started at Springer as #411.

Also, not that this necessarily means anything, but all of the thru-hikers whose blogs and journals I followed somewhat regularly (about 10...so a small sample) ended up completing their thru-hikes. Something I've wondered for a while is if there's a correlation between those who keep an online journal and the rate of those who complete their hikes. I would imagine that accountability might play some role in keeping people pushing forward.

[map man]

One thru-hiker who's trail journal I followed had her summitting Katahdin on October 6th and she says she was hiker #677 for that year. She started at Springer as #411.

People here can correct me if I am wrong, but I believe the folks at Baxter State Park consider anyone who started their hike at Monson or anywhere south of there a "thru-hiker" when they count. I believe that is their criteria for deciding who can stay at the Birches. So I'm pretty sure their numbers include some folks who did not start at Springer.

[danil411]

People here can correct me if I am wrong, but I believe the folks at Baxter State Park consider anyone who started their hike at Monson or anywhere south of there a "thru-hiker" when they count. I believe that is their criteria for deciding who can stay at the Birches. So I'm pretty sure their numbers include some folks who did not start at Springer.

The form they fill out includes starting point, so Baxter could separate categories. Having said that I was surprised to be hiker #772 on my summit day...especially since rumor has it that the park does keep separate section, nobo, sobo figures. For reference I was #880 at ATC in Harper's Ferry.

Haven't submitted my paperwork yet.

Dimples

[Que Sera]

People here can correct me if I am wrong, but I believe the folks at Baxter State Park consider anyone who started their hike at Monson or anywhere south of there a "thru-hiker" when they count. I believe that is their criteria for deciding who can stay at the Birches. So I'm pretty sure their numbers include some folks who did not start at Springer.

Ah okay. I did not know that

[Robin2013AT]

Has anybody ever checked with the ATC for how they gather their numbers?

[max patch]

NO ONE KNOWS how many hikers start each year. Its an educated guess. There is no requirement to "sign in". All thrus do not sign in anywhere. And some section hikers sign in. I don't believe the 2,700 reported number, but my guess is no more valid than anyone elses.

For what its worth (not much):

At 3/31 AFSP reported 789 thruhikers, which was 144 or 22% over 3/31/12.

At 4/3 Mountain Crossings reported 612 thruhikers.

At 4/10 Mountain Crossings reported "over 700" thruhikers but stated that many had not signed in. They estimated the true number as over 1,000.

[Coffee]

As a potential future southbound AT thru hiker, I'm very intrigued by the low numbers attempting the hike in that direction. To me it offers a better experience in terms of at least some solitude on the trail and I think that the weather would be more enjoyable overall with hiking in New England during the hottest months of summer, Virginia during leaf season, and late fall in the Smokies and to the finish. July 1 to November 15 or thereabouts.

[CarlZ993]

I was surprised about the small NoBo completion rate (around 12.7%, if my math is right; 2700 start, 343 finish). That number will change as more people submit their paperwork. From my personal perspective, the weather did suck & the hiker plague hit a bunch of people. Many of the people I hiked with in the beginning, however, did in fact finish. One guy had an injury that knocked him off the trail for 43 days. He returned & finished (way to go, Trucker!).

Of course, I'm sure that some finishers don't even bother to file the completion paperwork. I know of one Austin hiker (trail name 'Austin') who completed the AT last year & she isn't listed on the ATC database.

[Don's Brother]

I signed in at Amicalola as number 590 on March 22. Started from Springer on March 23. Arrived in Harper's Ferry on June 4 as number 318. Summited Katahdin on Sept. 2 as number 277 according to the Ranger Station. There were several days when I saw few other thru-hikers in parts of VA, MD, and PA. A couple of days I saw none. After the Smokies the numbers seemed to thin out considerably. I was fortunate to hike with a number of other thru-hikers, (some for only a day; others for weeks) who were determined to finish and did. In New Hampshire and Maine the 2013 thru-hikers I was around were a tough bunch. I don't know what the statistics really say. I'm just glad that I stayed healthy, reasonably injury free, and had the good fortune to walk every mile from Springer to Katahdin.

[Paul the Brit]

Would the GSMNP have the number of those filling in permits as thru-hikers?

[hikerboy57]

Would the GSMNP have the number of those filling in permits as thru-hikers?

gsmnp's definition of " thru hiker" is one who starts and finishes at least 50 miles before and after the smokies.

[evyck da fleet]

In 2012 I was the 941st hiker to leave Amicalola Falls on 4/19 and I believe the number of attempts was around 2,500 per the ATC site when the 2012 data was listed. I also think almost 700 hikers 'finished' that year NB. Seeing that about the same number of hikers reached HF in '13 as '12 I would expect the final number of finishers to be similar. If the class of '13 made it through what they had to early in the year I wouldn't expect a larger dropout rate after HF.

[Cro-Mag]

I signed in at Amicalola as number 590 on March 22. Started from Springer on March 23. Arrived in Harper's Ferry on June 4 as number 318. Summited Katahdin on Sept. 2 as number 277 according to the Ranger Station. There were several days when I saw few other thru-hikers in parts of VA, MD, and PA. A couple of days I saw none. After the Smokies the numbers seemed to thin out considerably. I was fortunate to hike with a number of other thru-hikers, (some for only a day; others for weeks) who were determined to finish and did. In New Hampshire and Maine the 2013 thru-hikers I was around were a tough bunch. I don't know what the statistics really say. I'm just glad that I stayed healthy, reasonably injury free, and had the good fortune to walk every mile from Springer to Katahdin.

Hey Don's Brother!! I hope you're doing well. Congrats on finishing!

-Salad Days

[fins1838]

Agreed, the movie will EXPLODE AT hikers.

A
Agree also, but just for a year, maybe 2. Then it'll fade.

[Tuckahoe]

A
Agree also, but just for a year, maybe 2. Then it'll fade.

This!

Much like the effect Ken Burns, Gettysburg, Saving Private Ryan or Band of Brothers had on Civil War or WW2 reenacting. Short term jumps in participants that quickly get disinterested and fade away. But then again, while the book was popular, the portrayal of folks and life on the trail may cause those not previously acquainted with the trail to not take an interest.

[Nooga]

Wait until the Bill Bryson "A Walk in the Woods" movie comes out. Every Yahoo and his brother will be queuing up at Springer Mountain.

I agree. I think the book had a huge influence on the number of hikers and the movie will probably have an even greater impact. Just look at the number of German hikers resulting from the documentary that aired a few years ago.

[ChinMusic]

I agree. I think the book had a huge influence on the number of hikers and the movie will probably have an even greater impact. Just look at the number of German hikers resulting from the documentary that aired a few years ago.

The numbers of Germans on the trial this year was amazing. If that one documentary could have that affect, one can only imagine what a movie is the US will do......

[imscotty]

The numbers of Germans on the trial this year was amazing. If that one documentary could have that affect, one can only imagine what a movie is the US will do......

The movie based on Cheryl Strayed's book 'Wild' is in production right now. If that movie entices flocks of promiscuous women to hike the PCT, I just may have to rethink which trail I want to hike first