I have a good friend who really wants to hike the AT NoBo and I've offered to go with him if he attempts it. Only problem is, if it happens, the earliest he can start is in the middle of May.

We are in our late 40s/early 50s. We are both in good shape. We've both done lots of backpacking, including in the NH Whites and in freezing temperatures. Both our packs are pretty dialed in for our style, I'm guessing counting everything including food/water for 4-5 days of food our packs will likely weigh 20-25 lbs. when we start in Georgia.

My understanding is that you need to aim to reach Baxter State Park BEFORE October 15th, which would give us 4-5 months. That's an average of a little over 100 miles a week, obviously needing to do more in Virginia and the mid-atlantic states, as I'm sure our pace will drop in the NH Whites and Maine.

This all sounds doable to me but I've read the average thru hiker takes more like 5 and half months to finish. How much harder is it starting in mid-May as opposed to a "normal" start window of March/April for a NoBo hike? Obviously we can always try to flip up if we feel ourselves falling behind in pace. I'm just curious for the wisdom of whiteblaze on how likely you think that is. Any other tips or insight for those heading NoBo in May?