I wonder if they will have some type of "health screening" before issuing the AT permits next year? I know the permits are not mandatory to attempt a thru-hike, but this might just be reason to start this??
I wonder if they will have some type of "health screening" before issuing the AT permits next year? I know the permits are not mandatory to attempt a thru-hike, but this might just be reason to start this??
If you want to avoid the crowds and don't mind winter hiking start in early February. You will stay ahead of the bubble and by the time you are to VA hopefully you can do 15-20 miles per day. That should keep you a head of most for a long time. Now this year that meant 4 snows, ice, and lots of rain. Be prepared.
There is no way to predict the future , but your going to have a certain percentage of society from here on out that will be germaphobics and won't put themselves in social situations ever again. you will have people such as myself that put off this years thruhike until next year . You will have the group that who initially were going to start in 2021 . You will definitely have the group that planned either this year or next and don't have the resources due to the economy taking a dive . Add to that the resupply points ,hostels , hotels and such that either go out of business for financial reasons or health reasons . If I had to take a long shot guess I would say numbers will be down slightly in 2021 and be way up in 2022 , as people get back to financial and mental stability. Only time will tell . Dan
[QUOTE=THEDON;2267341]I don't think it will be too crazy.
2. Folks that don't have jobs won't be able to afford the costs associated with a thru hike. Unemployment checks will only go so far with other bills to cover--car payments, cell phone, insurances etc.
During the economic crisis of 2009-11 plenty of folks lived on their unemployment checks and never seriously looked for work until their benefits were expiring. On section hikes back then I met several hikers, young and old, who were doing just fine on the trail. Their biggest problem was needing to call their unemployment office once a week and tell the lie about looking for work. And with the current stimulus of $600.00 per week for four months above regular unemployment benefits a future hiker could save more than enough money to hike the trail. Heck, I've even met young hikers who borrowed enough on their student college loans to hike the trail.
Never predict anything, especially the future
I've been planning my AT thru-hike, with regard to real prep, since December '19. I'm one of those "old farts" that are retired and been wanting to hike the AT all my life. I don't care how crowded it might be. I think that early spring will see a mass of people but the further one gets from Springer Mtn, the less crowded it will become. There are other options such as a SOBO trip or a flip-flop. I expect new "lifetime" friendships will be made and with the possibility of more people on the trail.
With regard to the virus, I'm not overly worried about it. It's killed less people, so far, than the regular flu; abet, it seems to be more contagious and more deadly. We'll see how it all turns out. I'm not a professional in that regard, nor do I play one on TV.
My concern is in the logistics! The AWOL guide may be undergoing a big update for 2022! We don't know who will still be in business in 2021 or what new providers might be identified. Is there a place on this board (or any board) for providers to make themselves known? I do know that I hope to sell my house in Texas before my thru-hike and plan to look for a house that borders one of the national parks so that I can provide support in some capacity along the AT.
Regardless, here's a toast to all who can make the AT in 2021!
Indeed, why be overly concerned with a contagion with a mortality rate of approximately 3% that has killed 30,000 people (likely more) in 6-weeks since February 29th (first COVID 19 related death), that can be transmitted by asymptomatic people just breathing the same air or in casual conversation, that can unknowingly be carried by asymptomatic people into rural communities and those simply passing on a trail who happen to breathe in just as the carrier exhales. Versus "regular" flu and pneumonia (not necessarily flu related) having a fatality rate of 0.1% over a full year.
I can see why the potential 2022 AWOL guide update is of high concern.
Well said. It's kind of weird and disturbing that folks STILL use that flu comparison "argument" the result being some being "not overly concerned about it" will delay the reduction of the spread. We're seeing good progress in the last couple of days, but it will be for naught when quite a bit of the country jumps the gun and relieves our effective distancing practices too early.
Anyway, yeah, 2021 is a huge TBD on trail conditions, but I'm still hopeful.
We do need to reopen the country. Contact tracing and testing with isolation is how we keep this under control. The lockdown was only to get this knocked down enough to allow contract tracing.
Social distancing is the new normal. It does not go away when we begin to ease the current restriction. It will be how we go about our lives for the next several years.
The problem occurs in that no one actually knows the real percentage - what is being calculated is the number of deaths (which is pretty easy to determine) vs. the number of people known to be positive (which is quite likely lower than the actual number that were or are at some point, since not all are being checked in most locations).
So, the current % is a maximum, but most likely the real % is somewhere below (possibly well below) that.
2021 Trail Crowding?
The AT is not the only game in town. If the OP has a big block of time to go backpacking and doesn't want the possible swarm of humanity, he/she can still pull a long backpacking trip and explore the 900 miles of trails in the GSMNP or the 400-500 miles of trail south of the Park in Slickrock wilderness and Citico wilderness and Bald River/Upper Bald wilderness and Big Frog and Cohutta and along the Benton MacKaye trail.
And currently the Cherokee National Forest is open for hiking and backpacking so have fun---
https://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE...eprd714556.pdf
Boat launches, most trailheads, and the general forest area, including trails and river corridors,will remain open to hiking, biking, boating, dispersedcamping, hunting, fishing,etc.
Keep it to 2021 thoughts and not on specifics of today unless projecting that out. Dropping right into day to Covid-19 stats and figures isn't what the thread is about. Do you see the trail being crowded, state why, move on. Thanks.
The best ways to avoid overcrowding (outside of permits or not going) are staggered starts and flip-flopping. If you distribute the total number of hikers more evenly over time and space along the trail, the size of the wave at each point along the trail in both time and space will be reduced. It's similar to the idea of flattening the curve but also chops the curve up by moving people further along the trail (social distancing). For a moment, consider the argument without the virus. If you split up start times and locations this way, it would prevent crowding and provide more steady economic activity for business owners as it wouldn't be so much feast or famine. The ATC has done some work promoting these ideas but when they decide to support some form of reopening of the trail, they should emphasis and seriously work towards these two. IMHO.
"Sleepy alligator in the noonday sun
Sleepin by the river just like he usually done
Call for his whisky
He can call for his tea
Call all he wanta but he can't call me..."
Robert Hunter & Ron McKernan
Whiteblaze.net User Agreement.
The general assumption was that this would be an inconvenience for a while and then disappear and that probably still is for a lot of people. A vaccine would be available by spring and off you go. But now seems the vaccine hope is more like 2 years if lucky. I think overcrowding will not be a problem at this point.
Thread moved to Straight Forward forum.
"Sleepy alligator in the noonday sun
Sleepin by the river just like he usually done
Call for his whisky
He can call for his tea
Call all he wanta but he can't call me..."
Robert Hunter & Ron McKernan
Whiteblaze.net User Agreement.
More to the point of 2021 crowding. I have 2 AT hikes planned for this year. Before all this mess, I only had 1 planned. Now, my first hike will begin on 6/4/2020 and take me from Springer to Fantana. This was to be a shakedown for a 2021 thru. Now, the second hike (1st part of Sept?) will continue on from there for 200miles-/+. That will put me well into VA. I would then continue to Maine from there, theoretically keeping out of much of a bubble.
The trail is crowded in GA in the spring. It was this year before the shutdown. I think 2021 will be no different.
Just my opintion YMMV
Last edited by Alligator; 04-25-2020 at 17:01. Reason: Not SF enough
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Well it’s been 2 months since the last comments on this thread.
I was going to be 2 weeks into a SOBO attempt for 2020. Now planning on the same for 2021. Wasn’t planning on lots of town days any way, so should be able to piece the logistics together from a probably reduced number of shuttles and hostels. And maybe make more use of bounce boxes and/or packages from home.
I’m in the camp of folks realizing life is short; understand there are others who for economic or health concerns.
Just a SWAG, but I think the pent up 2020’s will slightly exceed the 2021 delayers.
Kind of like the get up and go aspect of shelters vs tents, but would probably not wanted to be packed in. SOBO should help I’d guess. Probably fewer recent grads pulling gap half years in light of economy?