Karl Meltzer, 2016 AT record attempt

[Violent Green]

More likely we just haven't seen the Bolt equivalent on the AT. Or, maybe we've seen 3 of them.

We've yet to see that perfect storm record attempt. I think someone in their prime who is truly an elite mountain runner could still knock 1-2 days off the existing record. Heck, I think Jurek could have with a smarter hike.

[-Rush-]

Yes it would be more likely unless he is preserving a little for a big final push. 57 miles in the Smokies had to be hard on him.

Great Smoky Mountains National Park
Fontana Dam to Davenport Gap
72 miles- 14hr50min22sec

http://abackofbeyond.blogspot.com/20...-traverse.html

[Engine]

We've yet to see that perfect storm record attempt. I think someone in their prime who is truly an elite mountain runner could still knock 1-2 days off the existing record. Heck, I think Jurek could have with a smarter hike.

I think a sub 45-day run is possible but highly improbable given the nature of the event. Cumulative fatigue and injuries along with the almost inevitable caloric deficit are big issues to overcome. Added to that, the logistical problems associated with defined locations for meeting the crew make it tough to add that final couple of extra miles daily.

It would be interesting to see if a top end ultra-runner, in their prime, could fare much better than what we've seen thus far. Maybe Chris McDougall could get a few Tarahumara runners together and let them have a go.

[jeffmeh]

41 days in and certainly achievable.

Karl Meltzer AT SB Record Attempt by JeffMeh 2016-09-16.jpg

[jgillam]

41 days in and certainly achievable.

Karl Meltzer AT SB Record Attempt by JeffMeh 2016-09-16.jpg

Wow...that's a great chart! So much information, presented so well. Thanks to whomever put it together.

[jeffmeh]

Wow...that's a great chart! So much information, presented so well. Thanks to whomever put it together.

Many thanks. I started doing it in 2012 as a means to track progress when my son did a NOBO with a hard stop date, and have refined it over the years.

Of course, I couldn't do it for these record attempts without the solid efforts of Odd Man Out, who captures and shares the data.

[Seatbelt]

Great Smoky Mountains National Park
Fontana Dam to Davenport Gap
72 miles- 14hr50min22sec

http://abackofbeyond.blogspot.com/20...-traverse.html

I was referring to the 57 miles IN ONE DAY that Karl did stopping at Spence Field. At this point after so many consecutive tough days, that was a monumental effort in my opinion.

[Markus 4345]

I think a sub 45-day run is possible but highly improbable given the nature of the event. Cumulative fatigue and injuries along with the almost inevitable caloric deficit are big issues to overcome. Added to that, the logistical problems associated with defined locations for meeting the crew make it tough to add that final couple of extra miles daily.

It would be interesting to see if a top end ultra-runner, in their prime, could fare much better than what we've seen thus far. Maybe Chris McDougall could get a few Tarahumara runners together and let them have a go.

I don't think that you can get more of a top end ultra trail runner than Karl Meltzer. There is a huge difference of being great in a 50 or 100 mile race or at a multi day run like the AT record attempt.

[Just Bill]

Killian Jornet comes to mind if debating a perfect storm...

But one thing at a time- fingers crossed for Karl.

[Markus 4345]

We've yet to see that perfect storm record attempt. I think someone in their prime who is truly an elite mountain runner could still knock 1-2 days off the existing record. Heck, I think Jurek could have with a smarter hike.

Scott Jurek was also new to the multiday running thing, just like Karl Meltzer was in 2008.
Karl learned from his 2 attempts and his Pony Express trail run.

[Violent Green]

I don't think that you can get more of a top end ultra trail runner than Karl Meltzer. There is a huge difference of being great in a 50 or 100 mile race or at a multi day run like the AT record attempt.

The key component is "in their prime". Karl is beyond his and so was Jurek. However, we will most likely never see a young, top notch ultrarunner attempt it because 1) There's no money in FKTs. 2) 50mpd for 8 weeks is incredibly brutal on the body.

[Engine]

I don't think that you can get more of a top end ultra trail runner than Karl Meltzer. There is a huge difference of being great in a 50 or 100 mile race or at a multi day run like the AT record attempt.

Back in the day, you would be correct, but even Karl would admit he's well past his prime at this point. The elite ultra runners winning races lately are beating him by big chunks of time in a 100-mile event.

[Engine]

...we will most likely never see a young, top notch ultrarunner attempt it because 1) There's no money in FKTs. 2) 50mpd for 8 weeks is incredibly brutal on the body.

That is exactly what I was thinking, there is no real extrinsic reward (outside of whatever Redbull might offer) and lots of potential harm related to an FKT attempt.

[Ktaadn]

The key component is "in their prime". Karl is beyond his and so was Jurek. However, we will most likely never see a young, top notch ultrarunner attempt it because 1) There's no money in FKTs. 2) 50mpd for 8 weeks is incredibly brutal on the body.

No money in it? We've seen sponsorships and book deals. That sounds like $$ to me.

[NHGreg]

I have been wondering what it takes to put out this kind of effort for 40+ days straight (~50 miles per day) and whether a younger ultrarunner would crush the current FKT or not have the mental (or physical) stamina to do it.

Do you think Scott and Karl have some advantage over their younger counterparts because they've raced for so many years and put their bodies and minds through so much stress? Even though they would not win a 100 miler vs. Rob Krar or Jim Walmsley, perhaps they are still at an advantage for more demanding tasks like the AT FKT.

What do you think? I would love to see a younger runner try it just to get some comparison data.

[Just Bill]

No money in it? We've seen sponsorships and book deals. That sounds like $$ to me.

Scott (more or less) said that he waited until "retirement" to give it a shot as thru-hiking of any sort would dramatically alter his body and could take a year or two of training to return to his previous condition.

So if you'd like to talk a "pro" in his prime... much like many of us... would you ruin your career/quit good paying day job you enjoy simply to take a shot at something that even for the best in the world amounts to a coin-flip chance of success at best. With no guarantee it would lead to anything much.

Also... there's money, and there's MONEY. I really doubt there is any kind of money in this stuff for even the pros. Ultrarunning is a far bigger sport by far. While I'm sure Scott and Karl aren't in the poorhouse, as far as I know they both have/held day jobs for quite some time and perhaps still do today.

Let's say you got a 10k book (unlikely) or even made a 100k over a decade of book sales.... AWOL's guide I think is the best selling AT book and recently hit 100,000 copies if I'm not mistaken- nothing to scoff at- but nothing that is exactly setting you up for life either or happened overnight.

JPD was able to start a company, make a bit from books (that are not about her record), and likely a few bucks here and there. But her husband still works full time as far as I know.

End of the day... even for the pros, even if Karl got his trip covered and even a lifetime supply of Redbull as a bonus... it's still something you do for yourself as a labor of love... at least for the foreseeable future.

[Coffee]

These guys are just unbelievable but outside of human interest stories in the mainstream media and fame on boards like this one, FKT records are not salient achievements in the eyes of the mass market. And that is what is needed for big time sponsorship and big money. FKT attempts on long trails, or any trail really, are probably mostly self driven or seeking fame in a small community, not done for riches. Even thought these achievements, IMO, make many well known sports look trivial in comparison.

[TrailRunnerGuy]

So nobody heard if he stopped at NOC or went further last night? Or hear anything yet today?

[CalebJ]

I haven't heard anything today, but Horton posted on Facebook yesterday that he thought he'd stopped at NOC.

[black chucks]

Day 44 is on Red Bull site. Says 130 miles to go as of last night.