Thru Long Trail

[Bubblehead]

I plan on hiking The Long Trail from 10/4 to around 10/26. What are the chances of considerable snowfall north of Maine Junction in late October? Thanks...

[Gambit McCrae]

I just did some studying on it, I am not personally familiar with snowfall in Oct in Vermont, but it looks like unlikely chances. Up to .5" historically in October...Could vary with some elevation but I would say no considerable snow.

[LoneStranger]

You'll be fine unless you aren't, assuming you intend to SOBO. Most years October is ok and Winters are coming later every year generally. Of course the year I scheduled my hike for October had early snow. Laying in bed at 3am the day I was supposed to head up to Journey's End I made the hard decision to call it off. The early snows continued that year so I made the right call as I would have had to abandon the attempt.

Make your plans and hope for the best. Don't push your luck if the snow starts though. That is not a trail that needs any help getting slippery and dangerous.

[chknfngrs]

Love your assessment LoneStrangr, it’s most definitely not a trail that needs any help in that department

[Gambit McCrae]

thank me later
https://www.postholer.com/snow/Long-Trail/20

[Traveler]

Having made a few mistakes over the years which could have ended rather badly, I tend to plan for the worst conditions I am likely to face on a long distance trek. The average number of precipitation days in VT during October is approximately 15, which can be a fairly broad assortment from drizzle to downpours, sleet, grauple and of course snow. Cold temperatures are not uncommon in October and can quickly complicate a simple rain/drizzle event into a hypothermia survival story. Mt Mansfield gets approximately 10-inches of snow in October, sometimes all at once but usually over a few snow events. The record was set in 2010 with a 34-inch snowfall, so things can go sideways fast. This does not make the mountain impassable but can be dangerous due to rain/drizzle that if conditions are right can freeze on contact with any exposed surface and makes walking nearly impossible without some kind of traction device. Add a bit of snow on top of that and the danger level increases even with traction.

I woulds plan for clothing based on average temperatures accordingly and anticipate a few rather cold nights. Rain gear would be a must for me and sturdy shelter that can withstand some icing and wind. I doubt snowshoes would be needed but a pair of micro spikes in the pack will be good insurance you can get through ice covered rock and trail and/or with a snow cover if a storm kicks up. Circumstances can quickly change from benign to survival so for me the minor weight penalty of robust gear at that time of year best ensures survival if things go sideways, or comfortable completion as planned.

Good luck!

[Deadeye]

If you go SOBO, your chances of encountering significant snow are reduced considerably. By late October, I'd bet on seeing snow by Jay Peak.

Kind of depends on what you consider significant snow - you won't have snowpack, for sure, but you could run into a couple of inches of fresh, wet snow making for a slippery trail with extra mud. But then, that's just about everyday on the LT.

Like any mountains, the weather will be what it is -you're not likely to run into enough snow or heat to stop you.

[LoneStranger]

Having made a few mistakes over the years which could have ended rather badly, I tend to plan for the worst conditions I am likely to face on a long distance trek. The average number of precipitation days in VT during October is approximately 15, which can be a fairly broad assortment from drizzle to downpours, sleet, grauple and of course snow. Cold temperatures are not uncommon in October and can quickly complicate a simple rain/drizzle event into a hypothermia survival story. Mt Mansfield gets approximately 10-inches of snow in October, sometimes all at once but usually over a few snow events. The record was set in 2010 with a 34-inch snowfall, so things can go sideways fast. This does not make the mountain impassable but can be dangerous due to rain/drizzle that if conditions are right can freeze on contact with any exposed surface and makes walking nearly impossible without some kind of traction device. Add a bit of snow on top of that and the danger level increases even with traction.

I woulds plan for clothing based on average temperatures accordingly and anticipate a few rather cold nights. Rain gear would be a must for me and sturdy shelter that can withstand some icing and wind. I doubt snowshoes would be needed but a pair of micro spikes in the pack will be good insurance you can get through ice covered rock and trail and/or with a snow cover if a storm kicks up. Circumstances can quickly change from benign to survival so for me the minor weight penalty of robust gear at that time of year best ensures survival if things go sideways, or comfortable completion as planned.

Good luck!

Wisdom there. I can't recall how heavy my pack was going to be if I went that year, but I think it was in the 40 pound plus range, maybe closer to 50. Extra insulation for sleeping and on trail along with Hillsounds for traction plus full body rain gear instead of just an umbrella...it really starts to add up fast Not a lot of bailout options on some parts of the ridge up north. Definitely want to be sure you came prepared to survive whatever it throws at you.

[Daybreak]

The original posting of this thread was double posted. Please continue to use the thread you are reading Thru Long Trail for future posts. However, if you just now found this thread, there are some unique and worthwhile posts in the doubled thread below.

https://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/sho...ail-in-October

[Miner]

If you want to consolidate threads, it would be better to use the one in the Long Trail sub forum and not this one in the General Forum. People searching later for LT info will tend to look there.

[Lone Wolf]

I worked at Jay Peak for 10 years. it snows in October. have winter gear

[Daybreak]

If you want to consolidate threads, it would be better to use the one in the Long Trail sub forum and not this one in the General Forum. People searching later for LT info will tend to look there.

Yep you're right. Didn't notice the forum difference. I picked the latest post. Perhaps someone could have noted that earlier. At least I made an effort. They are cross-referenced. Post away wherever you like.