Things you can do to increase success rate..

[joshua5878]

Been reading this forum for years now and one thing I have had to come to grips with, is that, the Thru Hike, (NOBO or SOBO) completion rate without interuption is low.

At first I thought it was 1 out of 3 made it all the way, but now it seems more like 1 out of 10?? :0(

But aren't there things you can do in advance to increase your odds?? For instance, I am from FL, grew up in PA. (suburb of Phila) A lot of my child hood and high school and college friends are all wanting to meet me at different points of the trail ranging from VA to Maine! To me that is all the encouragement I need!

I know there are tons of other factors like money, illness, injury, weather etc... can take you off but putting all of that aside, one thing I have learned from all of you, namely Lone Wolf, is that it is just a walk! The rest is mental and then the above mentioned. But forget all of those things.

So, guess what I am saying, is that I intend to be 1 of the 10, or 12 or 14 or whatever the # is! Mean while I will keep watching the Rocky marathons, Rudy, Remember the Titans, The Natural, Field of Dreams.

Good luch to the entire class of 2009! Joshua

[Grampie]

I think the first thing you have to understand what a hard gruling feat you are about to take.
Too many hikers think it's all just fun and games while you walk the trail. The begining is quite hard. You have to adjust your life style to the trail. Be ready to be dirty, hungary and sometimes wet for days on end. Your feet will hurt and so will a lot of other parts. You probably will be cold and not sleep very well at night. Then there is the mental part. Being away from home and the ones you love. Spending hours alone just walking step after step after step.
There is no easy solution to doing a sucessfull thru other than good luck and a lot of determination.
Good luck on your quest to become one of the few and happy trails to you.

[emerald]

Read Some hikers better than a 20% chance? It has more hits than any other thread I started.

[joshua5878]

Read Some hikers better than a 20% chance? It got more hits than any other thread I started.

Just glanced at the thread, get back to you in a couple of days after I have read. 12 pages?

[A-Train]

First off, odds are probably closer to 30 % now. A thru-hike is a difficult undertaking, but not impossible.

Some things to improve chances:
Continue researching on this site as you've been doing
start off slow and work up your mileage. Prevent injuries by gradually increasing mileage.
Take days off when you need them.
Have extra money for when things pop up (injury, sickness).
Stay flexible, don't be married to a schedule. Likewise, avoid partnerships that will alter your trip. Stay true to what you want out of the hike, not what others want.
Stay in touch with people at home, they can provide good motivation.
Stick with your commitment. Sending out emails or starting a trailjournal or blog will put some "pressure" on you when things get tough.
Keep your gearr really light
Have fun. If you keep the mood light and stay thankful for the opportunity, it's just walking.

[emerald]

First off, odds are probably closer to 30% now.

I'm not sure I'm buying 30% or that it means anything. ATC's numbers vary from one year to the next and interpreting them is not a simple matter. Completion rates could have a great deal to do with what's happening in the media as some have suggested. Weather, honesty and information may influence them too. I'm not convinced completion rates should be how we measure whether we are doing all we might to help A.T. hikers.

I would like to believe no one's getting into something they didn't understand at the outset and is as prepared to make the most of the opportunity as possible. That might be a good measure of whether we're succeeding in accomplishing our objective.

12 pages?

Just wait until it sets in what 2000 miles and 5 million steps entails.

[emerald]

Likewise, avoid partnerships that will alter your trip.

Isn't that a good thing sometimes?

[Slo-go'en]

I think the most critical thing to do in advance to increase your odds is to have at least some prior backpacking experiance, so you know what your getting into. The drop out rate in the first two critical weeks on the trail is the highest for those who haven't done this kind of thing before.

It also helps to do a lot of walking just before you hit the trail, which will reduce the chances of having foot problems early on, which stops a lot of people.

[take-a-knee]

1) Start out in shape www.crossfit.com

2) Consume enough protein daily to prevent muscle/tendon wasting. Using Zone Diet principals this would be about one gram per pound of lean body mass (you weight minus your body fat).

3) Prevent stress fractures by consuming enough protein (your bones are 25% protein, IE collagen matrix), see 2 above

4) Get a shoe/sock system worked out before you start

5) Keep your pack light and don't be a mileage hog.

[Johnny Thunder]

I think the most critical thing to do in advance to increase your odds is to have at least some prior backpacking experiance, so you know what your getting into. The drop out rate in the first two critical weeks on the trail is the highest for those who haven't done this kind of thing before.

It also helps to do a lot of walking just before you hit the trail, which will reduce the chances of having foot problems early on, which stops a lot of people.

Agreed. How many quit in the first weeks because "it wasn't what I expected." If everyone went out with a reasonable understanding of what they were in for then we would probably avoid a lot of the immediate attrition.

[Tipi Walter]

An AT thruhike is an arduous endeavor and not for everyone. If it was easy, a lot more people would be doing it. And there are so many ways of backpacking the AT that it seems strange to categorize the experience as to whether a 5 or 6 month nonstop thruhike is more fulfilling than a lifetime of section hiking. But as you said, a nonstop thruhike does have a high attrition rate, just look at so many of the Trail Journals with 20 enthusiastic pre-posts and then after 2 weeks on the trail they quit writing and disappear.

Or look at the recent January hikers who got off the trail to wait for warmer weather. For the most part, successful thruhikers are a motivated bunch and will reach the end one way or the other. It's hard to say what exactly you could do to be certain of success. It's mostly mental, and the mind has a way of changing when conditions turn sour. For some it's not the hiking that is rough but the homesickness and loneliness. You could always turn down the volume on your mileage knob, and shoot for a lower mileage-per-day thereby reducing the pressure to move forward at a relentless pace. You could do a 12 month trip at 7 miles per day, take it easy and look around. Not much pressure then except for the wallet. And a full year would give you the whole four seasons. Unrealistic, I know, but it sounds good.

[Jack Tarlin]

Or you could just wait a few weeks to start.

I bet the completion rate is a whole lot higher for those electing to start after 21 March.

These February-March starters are sure beating the big crowds all right.

No crowds when they start, and no crowds when they're home three weeks later, either.

[garlic08]

A couple of posts above have put pack weight near the bottom of a good list of stuff. I like the lists, but I would put lower pack weight nearer the top.

[A-Train]

Isn't that a good thing sometimes?

Sure if you meet your future wife or something

Point being I've seen a lot of people lose sight of what they came out to experience and achieve because they got in lock step following a cute chick or a really cool guy and forgot how independent they were when they started the trail.
Groups and other hikers have a funny way of convincing others to push extra miles, take a short day, take one more zero, hitch to a concert, take a week off at the beach, catch a ride 200 miles to a hiker feed, etc. Nothing wrong with that if one wants their "once in a lifetime hike" to be dictated by others wants and desires.

[Gaiter]

click your heels together three times and think of what you want most

but really, hike your own hike, keep in mind that the trail isn't going anywhere... if your thru hike turns into a section hike because of physical, financial, or time reasons thats okay, just enjoy the journey till you reach your limits,
some of the most likely candiates for a completed thru don't get past nc, while some of the most unlikely candiates do, there isn't really anything that will be a sure fire way to complete a thru hike, so just enjoy every min. and you'll go much further...

[Pedaling Fool]

I think the vast majority of people that fail a thru is a result of boredom or not liking to hike every day, day-after-day. I think many of them make excuses, but the real reason they get off is because they got sick of hiking every-damn-day!!

When people say it's mostly a mental (not physical) challenge to do a thru-hike, they're absolutely correct.

[Jack Tarlin]

Actually, I just spent a few minutes thinking about this. One can get in great shape; one can become the world's biggest gear-head; one can hang out for months or years on every A.T. website there is......

But truly, if you wanna increase the chances getting thru those critical first few weeks, and if you really want to increase your chances of finishing a Northbound thru-hike, then here's one of the best pieces of advice I can give you:

Don't start until at least 15 March.

[Tinker]

Most people are ready to finish when they reach Maine. The novelty has long worn off, the monotony has set in, the aches and pains never go away, they miss their friends at home, ahead of them, behind them, the bugs never give you a day off, the food doesn't change much, etc. Coming from a section hiker it seems to me that time spent in towns helps recharge a lot of folks, but it can be a double-edged sword - the draw to return to the creature comforts might just get to be bigger than the draw to return to the rigors of the trail. Weeks of rain, weeks of sweltering heat, etc.
I doubt I could do it, but, given the time and money, I'd be more than willing to give it a try.

[Tinker]

Actually, I just spent a few minutes thinking about this. One can get in great shape; one can become the world's biggest gear-head; one can hang out for months or years on every A.T. website there is......

But truly, if you wanna increase the chances getting thru those critical first few weeks, and if you really want to increase your chances of finishing a Northbound thru-hike, then here's one of the best pieces of advice I can give you:

Don't start until at least 15 March.

Knowing what I know now, after talking with countless thru-hikers and attemptees , I couldn't agree more.
Most folks used to start in the middle of April and still finish by September. They traveled lighter and faster because they didn't need all that winter junk, and they didn't freeze their fannies off right away, get discouraged, and go home.
To paraphrase a line from "A Walk in the Woods" - What'd they expect - elevators, maybe?

[FritztheCat]

I was thinking about the mental aspects of the trail. Boredom, tedious one foot in front of the other, day after day, and homesickness. I haven't thru-hiked (will go in 2011) but have to wonder if someone such as myself, a (will be in 2011) prior military member, wouldn't have at least an advantage on one aspect.

I've done plenty of six month deployments and even a couple of overseas tours - all away from the family back home. The first one was the toughest because homesickness is really hard to overcome. After that, the deployments and time away from family became easier - not more pleasant, but easier to cope with. They became not only easier for me, but easier for my family. The wife learned to be independent (she always has been but it's different when the spouse is gone) and the kids adjusted.

I think that's probably one of the hardest aspects of a thru-hike for many people. Homesickness from the hiker and also the "I really miss you" calls from the family members back home.